“Discounting the enemy’s ability to adapt is also a trait of megalomaniacal leaders—many of whom choose advisers who tell them what they want to hear and suppress information that would make them unhappy.”
You know you're in trouble when George W Bush's middle east strategy people start saying your middle east strategy sucks.
The US eases no less than 9 decisions on oil sanctions on Russia.
The excuse is Trump's war on Iran, but this is what Trump wanted to do all the time.
Trump told us that he thinks Putin is a genius to invade Ukraine. Exceptionally, he did not lie.
ofac.treasury.gov/media/935191...
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas:
“What I think is actually important for everybody to understand is that the US has been very clear that they want to divide Europe. They don’t like the European Union”.
www.ft.com/content/1b9c...
You can tell the war isn’t going Trump’s way.
Pete Hegseth is spending a lot of his press conference attacking the media for accurate coverage.
The fate of the Iran War now rests on whether the US can secure the Strait of Hormuz.
If the US can't secure it, Iran will have massive leverage over the global economy & therefore over Trump.
The only other way to overcome this is regime change, but Trump can't do that without huge ground forces.
War on Truth…
In the spirit of my weekend updates on the Russo-Ukraine War, I will aim to produce a free midweek update on the US/Israeli attack on Iran (which hopefully will not go on much longer). Here is the first. Watch for splits between the US and Israel. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Congrats to China. We decided to spend that money randomly bombing other countries.
Trump: "So now we have low-cost interceptors effectively combating Iranian drones."
I wonder which country with "no cards" gave it to you 🤔
Putin is our enemy. He's helping Iranian soldiers target American soldiers and assets.
Zelenskyy is our friend. He's helping American soldiers shoot down Iranian drones.
Most Americans understand these basic facts.
Trump, for whatever reason, does not.
Trump on 28 Feb: Regime change in Iran!
Trump on 5 March: I have to choose the next Supreme Leader!
Trump on 6 March: Unconditional surrender!
8 March: Iran appoints Khamenei's hardline son as Supreme Leader.
Trump on 9 March: The war is very complete.
Zelensky said more Patriots were used in 3 days fighting Iran than used by Ukraine since 2022. Imagine how much Ukrainian energy infrastructure—and how many Ukrainian civilians—might have survived the winter if Trump had sent more Patriots to Ukraine rather than to a “war of whim.” wapo.st/4ui9QzJ
China is manufacturing roughly 70% of the world’s EVs, 80 percent of smart phones, 80% of lithium-ion batteries, and 90% of drones.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is spending tens of billions of dollars to bomb the Iranian regime to smithereens. wapo.st/4ui9QzJ
Just a reminder it’s been two days since reports came out, later acknowledged by Trump and his Administration, that Russia has been helping Iran to try and kill US military personnel.
And the Trump response so far has been...drum roll please...to reduce sanctions on Russia!
A purpose of the war on Iran might well be to provoke a terrorist attack inside the United States. This would provide Donald Trump with a pretext to try to cancel or “federalize” the coming Congressional elections.
snyder.substack.com/p/the-desire...
Trump is angry at Starmer for refusal to use UK airbases for attacks but fine with Putin helping Iran target US bases. Says Starmer is no Churchill but won’t say Putin is Stalin. Hope we find out one day exactly what hold Putin has on Trump and why Trump continually acts as his puppet.
“What Trump is doing now is making sure Ukraine will have far fewer Patriots going forward.
The upshot is that Trump’s decision to attack Iran is an economic, political and military windfall to Russia at exactly the time that the Russians desperately needed help.”
Reminds me of what Trump said in 2017 when asked about whether Putin was a “killer”.
Trump responded: "There are a lot of killers. We've got a lot of killers. What do you think? Our country's so innocent?"
He was making excuses for Putin then. He’s making excuses for Putin now.
Lawrence Freedman: "If Russia has all the cards, why has it achieved so little?"
"in the past year Russia suffered roughly 400,000 casualties, including killed, wounded and missing, to acquire around 0.8 percent of Ukrainian territory."
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/o...
You know who does believe in Rules of Engagement? Ukraine Does.
You know who does not? Putin's Russia.
Guess who the USA is now modelling itself on?
800+ interceptor missiles fired in the Middle East in 3 days. Ukraine used~700 Patriot interceptors across entire winter
EU Defence Commissioner: "Americans won't be able to provide enough missiles for the Gulf countries, for their own army, and also for Ukraine"
euromaidanpress.com/2026/03/07/8...
I’m hearing from Canadian readers asking why there’s no mention of US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra? The answer is I had a paragraph about him but it was cut for space reasons. Probably a mistake! Here is what I wrote…
”In an age of blood-soaked realpolitik, Europe stands out. Yes, it is meek, a vegetarian in a world of omnivorous geopolitical rivals. [But i]f it is a sin to think that rules matter, the world could do with a few more sinners… the relative sanity found in Europe is a kind of defiance.”
"War is mankind's most tragic and stupid folly; to seek or advise its deliberate provocation is a black crime against all men. Though you follow the trade of the warrior, you do so in the spirit of Washington -- not of Genghis Khan. For Americans, only threat to our way of life justifies resort to conflict." Graduation Exercises at the United States Military Academy, 6/3/47 "Possibly my hatred of war blinds me so that I cannot comprehend the arguments they adduce. But, in my opinion, there is no such thing as a preventive war. Although this suggestion is repeatedly made, none has yet explained how war prevents war. Worse than this, no one has been able to explain away the fact that war creates the conditions that beget war." Remarks at Carnegie Institute, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 10/19/50 [DDE's Pre-Presidential Papers, Principal File, Box
Was browsing the Eisenhower Library site this morning trying to find a quote I remembered.
President Eisenhower, WW2 military hero:
“In my opinion, there is no such thing as a preventive war… none has yet explained how war prevents war.”
Remember the real enemies are the enemies within, not Russia or China!
A tale of two headlines: Russia helps Iran kill Americans. Ukraine helps save American lives
Why didn't the US consult Ukraine, the one country that knows how to country attacks from thousands of cheap drones?
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating in the war if if indirectly.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
