Yes, I get this is an unwind from the market getting ahead of itself yesterday. But still.
10.03.2026 20:04
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Yes, I get this is an unwind from the market getting ahead of itself yesterday. But still.
Biggest daily drop in Brent in 4 years. On a day the Iranians appear to be mining the Strait.
Totally normal market. Very relaxing.
Jennifer Jacobs @JenniferJJacobs NEWS via @CBSNews : U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines of Iranian, Chinese and Russian-made variants, @JimLaPorta reports 2:13 PM · Mar 10, 2026 · 6,060 Views
Here we go
* US INTELLIGENCE SOURCES SAY IRAN IS STARTING TO PLACE MINES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY SHIPPING PATH, ACCORDING TO CBS NEWS.
Loose lips, fine for ships. Something like that.
2. Either Wright just somehow was really confused? Or the US is going to trying an escort something and he went early?
If the later, I’m sure there is some sort of memorable phrase about loose lips and ships.
1. This is crazy.
Judging from my kids’ mates: Arsenal and Liverpool.
Iran is about 3.5mbpd.
Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait look to have taken between 6.2 and 6.9mbpd off line in the last week.
There is absolutely zero doubt that the biggest loser economically is Iran.
The level of potential economic pain is itself *mostly* a question of time. That’s the key point here. The longer the Strait is closed, the greater the hit to the global economy.
I’m not at all sure the Tanker War is a useful analogy - in terms of military technology change since the 1980s (drones, better missile guidance, Iran’s mini-subs), in terms of the available number of US escorts or in terms of US willingness to sustain an operation for the length required.
The US obviously has overwhelming military power. But even totally overwhelming air power (and even coupled with an incredibly sophisticated intel gathering operation) can’t stop all attacks on shipping.
I don’t disagree on the state building not being an aim.
But I am very suspicious that *any* level of bombing can remove the threat to the Strait.
So I can see how the US can wreck the Iranian state but I struggle to see a how this campaign can ‘win’.
I still think I prefer the whole Australian package, including compulsory voting.
Useful on production cuts so far.
www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
I’d love to know what % of revenue is to adults.
Presume a fair bit nowadays?
Broadly agree.
And I think it’s quite notable that amid all the US boosts about sinking 46 Iranian navy vessels, everything is v quiet on the Iranian subs.
www.nti.org/analysis/art...
Some examples of how the energy crisis is affecting South Asia.
1. Pakistan will close schools for the next two weeks, get government employees to work from home and universities will shift to online learning.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
The President says stuff all the time - is all trade with Spain now embargoed?
Real case for watching what is actually happening rather than listening to the words.
In the cold light of morning: that looks to have been a reasonably successful attempt to calm markets. But not, so far, an actual deescalation.
As long as the Strait is still closed, I’d expect oil to keep grinding higher.
This is one of the maddest press conferences I’ve ever watched.
Once upon a time, MAGA promised no more wars in the Middle East and a focus on strategic confrontation with China.
The President just told his press conference he was fighting a war in the Middle East, partially to secure China’s oil supplies.
Hope everyone is keeping up.
I have no idea what is happening now.
But at least no one else does either.
Feels like a demonstrated ability and willingness to close the Strait is a fairly useful form of strategic deterrent for them.
🔴 Trump: US very far ahead of 4-5 week time frame - CBS Phone Interview. Trump: I think the Iran war is very complete pretty much - CBS reporter on X, citing an interview
Well, that was quite a rollercoaster week for European markets.
Glad it’s Friday now and we can have some calm time.
Were there any British columnists berating Wilson for not sending troops to Vietnam?
Circa 2009 saw a CV from a man applying for a job with the firm I was at then. It went - seriously - Enron, Bear Stearns, Lehman. I blame that guy.