Please see this commentary I wrote for @livescience.com that summarizes the current state of knowledge regarding the "zero emissions commitment" (how much warming we expect once emissions decrease to zero). Our best estimate is that the ZEC is very close to 0C:
www.livescience.com/planet-earth...
Those fires were linked to widespread respiratory illness, environmental contamination, and years of health monitoring in affected populations. Large petroleum fires are not just environmental disasters. They create population-scale public health risk that can last long after the smoke clears.
We have seen the consequences of events like this before. The 1991 Kuwait oil fires released enormous amounts of particulate pollution and toxic combustion products, creating one of the largest atmospheric pollution events ever recorded.
Petroleum combustion also releases toxic gases and chemicals including carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds such as benzene. These compounds add another layer of respiratory and cardiovascular risk.
But PM2.5 is only part of the exposure. PM10 and ultrafine particles are also produced when petroleum burns. These irritate the upper airways, worsen asthma and bronchitis, and increase respiratory stress across the population.
The most discussed pollutant is PM2.5. These particles are small enough to penetrate deep into lung tissue and trigger systemic inflammation. During large fuel fires, concentrations can rise far above typical urban pollution levels.
People are focused on the blasts. I’m focused on the air and the environment. Burning petroleum in a mountain valley city of 10M people like we are watching in #Iran is a mass exposure event. And it’s not just one type of PM. It’s the full spectrum, each with its own damage pathway.
So apparently outlook is down and i has to switch to my desktop app which is the only thing keeping the fabric of reality together right now. If you’re trying to log in via browser, don’t. It’s a trap. 🚩🚩🚩
Pulling back on #biodefense weakens our ability to detect, model and respond to the next threat not just at the national level but globally as well. As climate change and urbanization reshape transmission patterns, preparedness isn’t optional. It’s foundational to public health.
On March 26, I look forward to joining my friend and colleague @michaelemann.bsky.social @upenn.edu in beautiful Philadelphia for this important symposium on climate and disease discussing our book #ScienceUnderSiege
web.sas.upenn.edu/pcssm/calend...
Genomic-based biosurveillance for avian influenza: whole genome sequencing from wild mallards sampled during autumn migration in 2022-2023 reveals a high co-infection rate on migration stopover site in Georgia https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41684678/
I’ve lost count of the Americans that’ve asked me “After COVID are we better prepared?”. I tell them the truth “no” but offer hope by pointing to the scientific research underway.
Meanwhile Bhattacharya is eviscerating US preparedness. This will come back to haunt
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
So much to unpack in it. Just on example:
Ok, that was one of my top favorite #Superbowl shows. Loved it and you could tell they were having so much fun!
Imposter syndrome hits hardest during a PhD program when you have to explain your work out loud. But that’s not proof you don’t belong. It’s proof you’re building command of something complex. Clarity comes with reps. You’re learning. You’re legit.
Post-storm reality: empty shelves. The system needs time to recover now. With natural disaster risks rising, we must be ready for "anything." At least with Individual preparedness it buys you independence so you aren't waiting on a system that’s hitting reset button again & again to recover.
Never mind the jobs you had, tell me five classes you took in college:
Economics and Public Policy
Law and Public Policy
Global Economics
Advanced Health Policy I-II
Epidemiology (I have 5 classes just in this LOL)
Surveillance is how epidemiology works. We look for early signals, confirm w/ testing, contact tracing and update based on data and not rumors. More monitoring usually means the system is doing its job and catching any risk early. That's a good thing.
I’ve gotten a few messages about #NIPAH cases in India & COVID style airport protocols. Extra surveillance can feel scary, but it does not mean it is the next pandemic. It means public health is doing standard containment and monitoring so we can catch signals early and prevent any global spread.
South Carolina DPH just reported 89 new #measles cases since Friday. Upstate total: 789. We’re clearly in a sustained transmission. If you are in SC and you do not know your MMR status, check it and get protected.
Dr. Bill Foege was a giant who helped deliver smallpox eradication, one of public health’s greatest achievements. He changed the game by advancing surveillance containment, often called ring vaccination. His legacy lives on in each of us fighting for public health prevention in our communities.
#WinterStormFern We're still holding power. Although, it's going to be a frozen mess in the morning because the last part of the storm was mostly sleet. My proposal defense got canceled due to storm impacts. I am disappointed but also grateful we can reschedule. Back to the work.
Bill Foege was a public health legend. His loss is profound, particularly at this time. That he died at the end of the week in which the US withdrew from #WHO & the chair of ACIP mused about whether polio & measles vaccination are still needed — no words. www.statnews.com/2026/01/25/w...
I’ve weathered hurricanes, tropical storms and pre and post disaster work. I went into this storm better prepared than I was for most events so I've felt solid but the anticipation for 1"+ ice is going to make it a long night and day tomorrow. It almost here, so now we wait #WinterStorm
Great example of what I was saying in my previous post.
This reveals the deeper issues we ignore. Real preparedness isn't just buying supplies, it demands structural adaptation. We have to stop just reacting to these events and finally fix the systemic gaps leaving communities exposed. With that, I hope what is already fragile holds during this storm.
But it’s not just random events, it’s environmental whiplash. Example, tomorrow’s ice storm proves that. We’re seeing extremes in places not built for deep freezes or flooding. The spectrum of risk is expanding on both ends, and the "safe" zones and infrastructure we relied on are disappearing.
Picking up a few supplies for this storm had me thinking about how exposures keep widening. Heat lingers longer. Smoke ignores state lines. Hurricanes like Helene push further inland. We’re seeing climate/environmental hazards show up in places and seasons, where we simply didn't used to expect them
I’m currently preparing to defend my dissertation proposal with my committee, also preparing for a major ice storm tomorrow and I just learned we canned the WHO. This is the kind of institutional failure that will have a body count.
This is what unchecked transmission looks like. With this level of exposure statewide, we are not going to see this slow down soon. People forget how contagious measles is.
