James Cameron

This intel assessment is an elder millennial. www.cia.gov/readingroom/...

Maybe the Pentagon can repurpose its $100k Steinway as a minesweeper?

The grim choice facing the Trump administration: Economic or naval collapse?

Strong "Twilight of the British Empire" vibes from this headline.
edition.cnn.com/2026/03/09/b...

Then we would be left with an Iranian regime even more hostile towards the US and its allies than before, potentially emboldened by denying the US and Israel strategic victory, while still in possession of c.440kg of highly enriched uranium. Wonderful.

Then we would be left with an Iranian regime even more hostile towards the US and its allies than before, potentially emboldened by denying the US and Israel strategic victory, while still in possession of c.440kg of highly enriched uranium. Wonderful.

No, they aren't relying on an 8 year-old outdated NPR, except maybe for declaratory policy, which is the public relations part of the NPR. NPRs advise employment guidance document for targeting and operations; most recent guidance should still be in place, but they can change that without an NPR

But then referring back to a document that predates the SPC report and Biden's NUWEP doesn't make a lot of sense.

Yes, it's weird because he has written on nuclear strategy and should know the problems with this position.

This isn't really how Nuclear Posture Reviews work. Are we to completely disregard Biden's 2022 NPR and rely on an outdated eight-year-old document for authoritative guidance on US nuclear strategy?

Trump lacks a lot of leadership skills, but he does have the con-man's ability to keep leading people on by giving them just enough hope that he will eventually do the right thing without ever actually intending to.

Can Congress subpoena Signal chats? Asking for a future generation of historians.

The transcripts (if there are any) of the pre-war NSC meetings are going to be amazing.

Great how Europe is redeploying some of its best equipment away from Russia to deal with a crisis created by our "security guarantor."

Great how Europe is redeploying some of its best equipment away from Russia to deal with a crisis created by our "security guarantor."

Yes, just as Trump likes starting all his wars at the weekend.

The problem is that, because this is a war with multiple parties, Trump can't easily implement steps 3 and 4 of his familiar cycle.

It would be grimly ironic if Trump's Iran war were the thing that finally triggered the US AI market collapse.

The problem is that, because this is a war with multiple parties, Trump can't easily implement steps 3 and 4 of his familiar cycle.

The complete irrelevance of Russia in this war compared to the USSR IN 1973 is notable. No emergency airlifted munitions as far as we know, and the possibility of paratroopers being readied for action, well… most of those soldiers died in Ukraine four years ago.

Rabobank on the unfolding worst case scenario:

This was in every single undergrad-level crisis simulation of this exact situation for the past 15+ years.

Thinking of the Trump-supporting restrainers at this difficult time.

I'm sure it will be a great comfort to Iranians to know that Israel is blowing up their energy infrastructure in cooperation with the US, rather than the US blowing up their energy infrastructure in cooperation with Israel.

There is basically zero chance the @iaeaorg goes commando, as it were. (10x the IAEA-UNCSOM tension in post-1991 Iraq. Disaster.) More likely is an Iraq Survey Group-like arrangement, which maybe includes some friendly former IAEA inspectors and consultants. @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social

Isfahan is in central Iran. That would be an enormous operation.

Yes, thank you. Given the challenges you outline, I wonder if they would therefore consider a larger operation where US and Israeli force might hold a larger amount of territory for a certain time, so that they could extract the HEU under more secure conditions.

I see that someone else has attached my post, but I'll do it again.

An operation like this is demanding in peacetime. Now add a war.

I would say that 2 and 3 both hold.

3. The nuclear facilities were damaged in last June's bombings.

2. I would guess that a satellite is tasked to monitor Isfahan continuously.

I have long argued that the danger of "terrorists" is far less than people make it out to be.

Thanks. Presumably there is a confidence level attached to the assessment of the HEU's location at Isfahan? The IC surely can't say definitively if it is there.

The unfailing ability of UK political pundits to make every international crisis into an inside-Westminster story.