MQ-9 Reapers are flying numerous orbits over Iran, gathering intelligence and taking out missile launchers in Operation Epic Fury. Yet Iran has managed to down about 10 of the armed drones, according to people familiar with the operations. www.airandspaceforces.com/mq-9s-over-i...
It’s no secret that investigative journalism is on life support. The economics of the profession, always shaky, have become increasingly untenable. If you enjoyed this, or any of my other work, and are looking for a full-time editor or writer, get in touch!
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
So senseless, so arrogant
there's a thing I like to call "load-bearing assumptions", that you don't notice until they're suddenly gone (e.g the air you breath has oxygen in it).
the post-ww2 order is a load-bearing assumption for basically the entirety of american life. trump took a sledgehammer to it in the last 90 days.
Of course they will be rubber-stamped. This happens often enough with real people planning strikes.
Between AI planning and autonomous execution I expect higher rates of civilian casualties in conflict worldwide.
Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence Rear Adm Mike Brookes testified today that the PLA Navy is moving from a hybrid diesel-nuclear submarine force to an all-nuclear submarine force. Notable. www.uscc.gov/sites/defaul...
The only repeated strategic goal for Op Epic Fury articulated by the admin is that “Iran can never have a nuke.”
That’s a prevention goal.
Which requires either your opponent’s will to somehow change
Or an endless commitment of resources.
Against ideological opponents, this = forever war
Friendly fire happens in any major conflict, but three F-15Es? I am not confident that Iran has even gotten three aircraft off any runway, much less to perform a meaningful attack. There will be an interesting postmortem for this one.
In Iran, air power alone will not reshape the regime. Since WWI, dozens of U.S., Israeli & allied air campaigns have tried to force political change — none installed friendly governments. None! They strengthen nationalism and intensify resistance.
the guy who wrote the literal book on this stuff is dunking on the admin:
US now targeting 2028 for its own landing, but that's an optimistic goal
US destroyers launched Tomahawks at Iranian targets, but here’s the problem: America doesn’t have unlimited TLAMs. The Trump admin burned through big numbers in earlier strikes on Iran, Houthis, and Nigeria without replenishing stockpiles. And TLAMs would be vital in a potential China fight.
On periodic bombing: US capability for sustained large-scale air campaigns is limited. High-end weapon magazines and replenishment capabilities, stress on ppl and airframes would take its toll and limit options for crises elsewhere. And even assuming air supremacy Iran could impose real costs.
However, those perceived threats cannot be permanently reduced without either a) coercing or convincing Iran to stop building them, b) suppressing them with periodic bombing campaigns, c) toppling Iran's regime. All but the first come with massive costs and externalities.
Sustained aerial bombing could achieve two, maybe three of these things if the US and Israel are skilled and lucky: destroying ballistic missile launchers and industry, sinking the Iranian navy, and maaaaybe set the Iran's supposed nuke program back further.
Among many other challenges for the Iranian opposition (see previous thread) there is no opposition leader who commands wide legitimacy and experience in either governance or fighting a civil war.
Many people have focused on Reza Pahlavi, the Shah’s son, as a possible opposition leader. But . ..
What are the long-term implications of cancelling SLS's Exploration Upper Stage? Does that take crewed Mars flights off the table until some hypothetical future vehicle is developed?
Not denouncing the move, just wondering.
NASA's Isaacman, per arstechnica.com/staff/2026/0... announces: Boeing EUS stage cancelled, SLS to continue using Block I (Delta 4 derived) upper stage, new Earth-orbiting mission added to schedule in 2027 as 'Artemis 3' with an Apollo-9-type profle, old Art3 is now Art4, in (implausibly) 2028
NEW: Guards have taken away crayons, colored pencils & paper during recent room searches at Dilley, according to detainees and others. After one inspection, the children just “cried and cried and cried,” a mother said. The facility denies the claims.
By @mckenziefunk.com @micarosenberg.bsky.social
The Trump administration is loosening restrictions on the sharing of law enforcement information with the CIA and other intelligence agencies, officials said, overriding controls that have been in place for decades to protect the privacy of U.S. citizens
www.propublica.org/article/trum...
Space Reporter job for Payload is open!
drive.google.com/file/d/1fPjw...
Scramjet tests are always fun
“Iran’s nuclear facilities have been obliterated - and suggestions otherwise are fake news.” - White House, June 25, 2025 www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...
Two+ tier airport security always kinda rubbed me the wrong way anyway.
Finally a proper audience!
NATO Allies have agreed a new multinational initiative to develop drone-based deep precision strike capabilities, as part of a wider package of cooperative programmes aimed at strengthening deterrence and defence, the alliance stated.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=66937
U.S. Navy Seeking Anti-Radiation Missile Which Can Also Kill Airborne Radars
NAVAIR is looking for an advanced anti-radiation missile with a longer range than the ones in the Navy’s current inventory and which can also engage airborne targets.
Story: theaviationist.com/2026/02/20/u...
adventures in our brave new world
20 years of GWOT has left a sense that uncontested air power is how wars work. But it's not war. These are all launchers. It's bombardment for bombardment's sake. We're getting ready to bomb the hell out of a country, but there's no war plan, no real goals.
Report: Staff at Dilley raiding cells to confiscate kids' letters and drawings detailing conditions inside
ProPublica published children's letters and drawings documenting their sadness and suffering at Dilley. And Dilley staff are now retaliating by confiscating kids' letters and drawings.
www.sacurrent.com/news/san-ant...
