Great postdoc opportunity! I escaped the first Trump administration by spending it in Umeå, here is a great chance for someone to do the same umustipendie.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
During the evaluation period (2023), submitted forecast models were most useful when in-lake conditions were most different to historical observations.
As conditions continue to move beyond what can be predicted from past observations, these forecasting methods will be more and more valuable! 📈
Skillful forecasts were generated using four model classes - process models, machine learning, empirical, and multi-model ensembles.
35-40% of models outperformed null models and the most successful models accounted for more sources of uncertainty (process, parameter, initial conditions, observational, drivers) with poor models often over-confident in their forecasts.
Using >100,000 near-term ecological forecasts, produced in real-time as part of the @ecoforecast.bsky.social NEON Forecasting Challenge, we looked at how different forecasting models performed for different lake variables and sites!
So exciting to see @freyaolsson.bsky.social's forecast synthesis paper officially published today!
"What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge"
doi.org/10.1002/eap....
Upcoming January 22 deadline!
Submit abstracts, workshop proposals, working group activities, and travel scholarships for the Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 Conference.
We want you to join us!
See details at bit.ly/efi2025
The tutorial can be expanded from the original 90-minute version to include materials on workflow automation⏲️▶️and forecast evaluation 🏅❌!
Come and try #EcologicalForecasting!
This tutorial introduces a simple near-term, iterative forecasting workflow using #NEON data to get you started thinking about how to implement real-time forecasts that include uncertainty!
github.com/eco4cast/NEO...
Water temperature forecast showing multiple potential future conditions (forecast uncertainty)
Lake Barco NEON buoy collecting real-time data
Are you interested in trying to forecast ecological variables?🔮
Or want to teach some key forecasting concepts?
Our #open-source, R-based, tutorial materials are available via GitHub, along with a short paper at #jose jose.theoj.org/papers/10.21...
@careylab.bsky.social @cboettig.bsky.social
Ellie Mackay working on the John Lund vessel on Windermere, plus the titles Podcast review of the year, A deep dive into Windermere: 79, and the Counting the Earth logo wearing a Santa hat
Our #podcast review takes us to Windermere where our team boarded the research vessel John Lund and unwrapped 79 years of Cumbrian lakes monitoring 🛥️
🎧 https://buff.ly/3P5bykq
#12DaysOfChristmas #CountingTheEarth🌍
