NEW POD 🎧: Cuba is spiraling into a humanitarian crisis. Trump has kept the Caribbean in his crosshairs, kidnapped the Venezuelan president & executed >140 people in boat strikes — what does he want with Cuba? W/ @mjbusta.bsky.social & @andrespertierra.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Over 28 years, 140 people died at the Berlin Wall from all causes (intentional shooting, drowning, accidents, etc.). #comparativeborderregimes
Planes can refuel in neighboring countries, I don't think that 'they're client regimes pretending to be democracies' is true or going to explain much about this.
The key thing is that while planes can stop in neighboring countries, this *increases* costs yet further
With the damage done to the Cuban peso, people will be demanding hard currencies, which will then reinforce divide between the haves who have $ and the have nots with none
Also computer parts, clothes, toiletries, and basically anything else you can think of. Assuming more fuel doesn't get in, this effectively kills the supply chains of a lot of the country overnight.
With new goods suddenly gone, plus uncertainty, we can expect prices to multiply overnight
Cuban government has informed airlines that they only have about 24 hours worth of fuel left for planes.
Beyond the obvious damage that suddenly shutting down any country's air travel would have, a not at all small % of food and medicine in Cuba comes by luggage on airlines
efe.com/economia/202...
Also wonder whether we're seeing play on the cracks in the competing interests within Trump coalition;
-Trump gets access and stabilization, plus some kind of vassalization out of it, so maybe offer appeals to him
-Rubio wants regime change outright
-Miller just wants migrant flow stemmed
This leaves me with 2 big questions.
1) how on point reporting is both on meetings and what's on offer?
2) would this be something Rubio wing of the coalition would accept given that gov stays in power?
Possible big scoop by ABC, if true, is that Mexico is mediating talks between Cuba, represented by Raul's son Alejandro Castro, and representatives of the CIA.
Talks are in Mexico with Cuba offering access and opening up of economy for survival
www.abc.es/internaciona...
Good @andrespertierra.bsky.social article:
pertierra.substack.com/p/revolution...
And make no mistake, an oil blockade is going to kill people. I don't just mean that it will likely cause rioting which leads to people dying. I mean that a breakdown of basic infrastructure, including the transport of water much of which is still done by truck, will lead to civilian deaths
Venezuela isn't sending oil to Cuba, Mexico may but is not currently sending oil, last shipment of oil was earlier this month and in a small quantity, island may have 15-20 days of reserves left, and now US imposes an oil blockade on the island. If China is going to step in, it would have to be now
Thanks!
First heard about Cuban Studies Journal as an undergrad and honestly never even thought to imagine publishing in it, so it's a surreal feeling to see my name in its table of contents
Problems and tendencies aren't destiny. In principle, China can step in with more money, more oil, etc., but they'd have to do that soon and so far - aside from sending some rice and a tiny bit of cash compared to how much is needed - they haven't stepped up
Oil isn't just the main source of energy for Cuba's electrical grid, but also for its cars which transport both people and goods like food and water. It is the source of energy for the backup generators that keep hospitals going. It's also what has kept protests at bay in Havana
In late 2025, Cuba's main two sources of oil were Venezuela and Mexico, who combined still supplied far less than the island needed, leading to 20+ hour a day blackouts on most of the island
In less than a month Cuba has lost both. Unclear what reserves remain
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
not sure anyone knows but I would assume it's
2) wait for riots which the gov has to either cave to or shoot to put down, creating a situation where either the army splits over shooting civilians or the US has an excuse to intervene directly
This is going to kill people, if implemented. Civilians, the poorest of the poor. The people who don't have the hard currency to bribe others or impose themselves on skyrocketing black market prices. Hospitals may have lights on, if they have solar panels, but how do you get staff there without bus?
US is considering replicating the naval blockade part of its Venezuela strategy but against Cuba; the island country produces almost no oil of its own and solar panel transition is still tiny fraction of consumption.
Also, truck transportation of food and water 🗝️
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Cuba's two biggest sources of oil were Venezuela and Mexico, with everything else far far far behind; basically matched 1:1, with Mexico slightly above Venezuela until late last year
Thank you, that's very very kind of you to say :)
They may not have much to do, but they're doing it anyway
FWIW I don't see a Delcy style solution working in the Cuban case for a host of reasons, though stranger things have happened, but I can see a scenario where this huge pressure campaign makes existing domestic pressures blow a gasket leading to unrest that then does lead to regime change
WSJ scoop confirms what many surmised: Cuba is next after Venezuela, with regime change strategies already under way
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
German's jokingly call the IEG the 'historian's jail' because historians come here to finish their dissertations and aren't normally permitted to leave Mainz during the fellowship. Maybe we should make Braudel our mascot
The POW camp where he was interned here in Mainz before being transfererred to Lubeck was 15 minutes away from where I work, walking. Holy shit.
One of my favorite historians is Fernand Braudel, made deservedly famous for his massive two-volume history of the Mediterranean world in the 16th century.
Had always known he wrote initial draft while a POW during WWII. Just found out he was held prisoner here in Mainz.
Wrote a quick response to the hypothesis being promoted by Timothy Snyder re: Cuban government complicity in Maduro's capture; basically, seems unlikely unless new significant evidence comes to light
pertierra.substack.com/p/think-hors...
I don´t think we´re quite at 'another Iraq' for the reason that it required both US boots on ground + alienating the old military
