Dov H. Levin

cc: @professormusgrave.bsky.social

Unanticipated effects of the Iran war in a (still?) globalized world- your local Hong Kong supermarket suddenly has some products pretty obviously meant originally for a Middle Eastern country that were clearly redirected instead at the last moment to Hong Kong.

cc: @jeffcolgan.bsky.social @smsaideman.bsky.social
@profsaunders.bsky.social @stephenwalt.bsky.social
@guygrossman.bsky.social

cc: @dandrezner.bsky.social @dmsilverman.bsky.social
@remylevin.bsky.social @judah-grunstein.bsky.social ‪ @profpaulpoast.bsky.social @carlquintanilla.bsky.social
@chagaiweiss.bsky.social @johncarlbaker.bsky.social
@pauljnadeau.bsky.social @yoniabramson.bsky.social
@dhnexon.bsky.social

The bystander benefits: The Iran war and China Shortly after the bombs began to fall in Iran, claims that the Iran war is really about China quickly emerged.

My new substack regarding widespread claims by US hawks that Iran war is about China. I argue that, while China is not cause of war, even if the US is able to eke out somehow a partial victory vs. Iran, China will gain inadvertently from it across board /1
open.substack.com/pub/dovhlevi...

cc: @jeffcolgan.bsky.social @smsaideman.bsky.social
@profsaunders.bsky.social @stephenwalt.bsky.social
@guygrossman.bsky.social

cc: @dandrezner.bsky.social @dmsilverman.bsky.social
@remylevin.bsky.social @judah-grunstein.bsky.social ‪ @profpaulpoast.bsky.social @carlquintanilla.bsky.social
@chagaiweiss.bsky.social @johncarlbaker.bsky.social
@pauljnadeau.bsky.social @yoniabramson.bsky.social
@dhnexon.bsky.social

The gains for China from war in short & medium term will come from across various domains: militarily, geopolitically (rare earths controls more potent tool), public diplomacy & economically (makes China’s cleantech exports way more desirable) /2

The bystander benefits: The Iran war and China Shortly after the bombs began to fall in Iran, claims that the Iran war is really about China quickly emerged.

My new substack regarding widespread claims by US hawks that Iran war is about China. I argue that, while China is not cause of war, even if the US is able to eke out somehow a partial victory vs. Iran, China will gain inadvertently from it across board /1
open.substack.com/pub/dovhlevi...

cc: @jeffcolgan.bsky.social @smsaideman.bsky.social
@profsaunders.bsky.social @stephenwalt.bsky.social
@guygrossman.bsky.social

cc: @dandrezner.bsky.social @dmsilverman.bsky.social
@remylevin.bsky.social @judah-grunstein.bsky.social ‪
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social @carlquintanilla.bsky.social
@chagaiweiss.bsky.social @johncarlbaker.bsky.social
@pauljnadeau.bsky.social @yoniabramson.bsky.social
@dhnexon.bsky.social

Opinion – Why the Liberal Rule-Based Order Failed Liberal thought has been traditionally quite sceptical of democracy, despite its frequent modern association with it.

My new piece in E- International Relations on why the liberal rule based int. order is dead (or comatose)- in brief its own design was fatally flawed from the start- liberal by flowery pronouncement and occasional policy, but not in its own structure
www.e-ir.info/2026/03/07/o...

I'm not an expert like Levin is, but it's nice to see something that I've thought for a long time - a hegmonic order can be violated by the hegemon at any time - reflected in the scholarly literature.

cc: @jeffcolgan.bsky.social @smsaideman.bsky.social
@profsaunders.bsky.social @stephenwalt.bsky.social
@guygrossman.bsky.social

cc: @dandrezner.bsky.social @dmsilverman.bsky.social
@remylevin.bsky.social @judah-grunstein.bsky.social ‪
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social @carlquintanilla.bsky.social
@chagaiweiss.bsky.social @johncarlbaker.bsky.social
@pauljnadeau.bsky.social @yoniabramson.bsky.social
@dhnexon.bsky.social

Opinion – Why the Liberal Rule-Based Order Failed Liberal thought has been traditionally quite sceptical of democracy, despite its frequent modern association with it.

My new piece in E- International Relations on why the liberal rule based int. order is dead (or comatose)- in brief its own design was fatally flawed from the start- liberal by flowery pronouncement and occasional policy, but not in its own structure
www.e-ir.info/2026/03/07/o...

Incredible 40,000-year-old discovery may rewrite human history Crosses and dots on an Ice Age figurine of a mammoth may be about to rewrite history

TBF it is not surprising that idea of writing could have developed way before 3000 BC- idea is intuitive but obviously was of limited use among small hunter gatherer groups
metro.co.uk/2026/02/26/h...

Why is AI so bad at reading PDFs? One of the most ubiquitous file formats is stumping the major models

In other news the "AI can write academic papers better then academics can" claims have a few small snags to them.
www.theverge.com/ai-artificia...

Rubio says Hungary's exemption from oil sanctions due to personal relationship of Orbán and Trump At his Budapest press conference, the US Secretary of State avoided giving a definitive answer to the question of how long Hungary would be exempt from the sanctions on oil. Orbán described his discus...

In other news Trump via Rubio is aiding Orban in reelection campaign (also) by giving Orban an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil
telex.hu/english/2026...

Rubio says Hungary's exemption from oil sanctions due to personal relationship of Orbán and Trump At his Budapest press conference, the US Secretary of State avoided giving a definitive answer to the question of how long Hungary would be exempt from the sanctions on oil. Orbán described his discus...

In other news Trump via Rubio is aiding Orban in reelection campaign (also) by giving Orban an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil
telex.hu/english/2026...

Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada Separatists from oil-rich province try to capitalise on friction between White House and Mark Carney

In other bad news, it seems that the US is beginning some actual efforts to annex Canada (or parts of it). 😢
www.ft.com/content/11dc...

this operation will cause to the international system in a way little discussed thus far. /2

Four immediate points about the 2026 Regime Change Operation in Venezuela From why this isn’t (mostly) because of Trump's whims, to the likely wider long term damage this operation will cause to the international system

My immediate take on Substack on the American regime change operation in Venezuela. It discusses among other things how such a FIRC is a predictable result of US FP towards Venezuela since the start of the 21st Century , to the likely wider long term damage /1
open.substack.com/pub/dovhlevi...

And the 4th I think is really insightful:

That this operation will undermine international diplomacy and trust in diplomatic immunity.

World leaders — especially of weaker rivals and opponents — will be more leary of setting foot on U.S. soil, and even attending the UN

This is an interesting read as always from Dov Levin on the IR fallout from Venezuela

Thanks for reading! Happy to hear that you (mostly) liked it.

cc: @smsaideman.bsky.social @profsaunders.bsky.social

cc: @dhnexon.bsky.social @jeffcolgan.bsky.social ‪@dknedal.bsky.social

cc: @stephenwalt.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social

cc: @dandrezner.bsky.social @dmsilverman.bsky.social
@remylevin.bsky.social @judah-grunstein.bsky.social‪ @profpaulpoast.bsky.social @carlquintanilla.bsky.social
@chagaiweiss.bsky.social @johncarlbaker.bsky.social
@pauljnadeau.bsky.social @yoniabramson.bsky.social

‪‪