C'était un plaisir de parler avec @rts.ch au sujet des canicules. Ces évenements extrêmes entrainent une forte baisse de productivité et augmentent les prix des aliments. Ils ont un effet negatif durable. www.rts.ch/info/environ...
Paper is open access in Environmental Research Letters iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 3/3
As climate change continues, these food price spikes will likely worsen, affecting in particular the poor (both poor countries and poor people within richer countries). That's a challenge for MonPol, since these prices matter for inflation expectations 2/3
New research out by Maximilian Kotz, myself and others on the impact of climate change on food price spikes. We show worldwide impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on food prices spikes reported in the media (link follows) 1/3
New @ecb.europa.eu blog post by me on the economic impact of heatwaves. Just as humans get lethargic in the heat, so does the economy. just in time for my summer holiday!
And yet the Fed has stopped doing research on climate change. As I've always said, climate doesn't care about your political views
My hot tip is to take a look on the @iea.org website for data and reports on AI energy demands and the green transition. Tomorrow is a good day for that
New @ecb.europa.eu podcast by myself and colleagues Antonio and Guzman looking at the implications of AI for the economy. I focus on how it interacts with the green transition. As I argue, the twin transitions are better seen as companions rather than competitors
New @ecb.europa.eu blog by me on AI and the green transition. Both require substantial amounts of electricity, which appears to make then clash. But AI has many benefits for the green transtion. Solving grid bottlenecks and finance will help both www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/d...
Last chance to apply for a Master's traineeship in my division @ecb.europa.eu. Applications close tomorrow, Friday 21 Februry. We look at all the interesting stuff: climate, AI, productivity, competitiveness, demographics. Details in link talent.ecb.europa.eu/careers/JobD...
This work draws on my recent Working Paper with Sehrish Usman and Guzmán Gonzalez-Torres Fernandez. We also study the economic impact of heatwaves and droughts for those interested 6/6 www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw...
Moreover, the impact of events spreads beyond the affected region through supply-chain linkages. See the excelent work by Gert Bijnens et al on the Belgian experience. www.nbb.be/en/articles/...
Adaptation, through spending on floods defences, helps reduce the incidence of floods and has medium term economic benefits, see the work of Matteo Ficarra and Rebecca Mari 4/6 bankunderground.co.uk/2024/11/29/w...
Economic and institutional characteristics that strongly correlate with income, such as financial constraints, quality of governance and public infrastructure, may affect long-run economic outcomes. This includes insurance. Yet only a quarter of damages are covered in Europe. 3/6
In high-income regions, there's a surge of construction activity and investment, driving up economic activity and productivity in the medium term. But the reverse happens in lower-income regions.
Link to Bulletin box here: 2/6
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/econom...
New piece out by me in the @ecb.europa.eu
's Economic Bulletin, on the economic impact of floods (link follows).
Short version - impact depends on regional charactersitics. High-income regions on average build back better, less well-off regions do not. 1/6
Come work with me! We are advertising for trainees for Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance Division at the European Central Bank. Fantastic opportunity to get involved in all the cool topics: labour market, migration, demographics productivity, competitiveness, climate change, AI. Link follows
*England and Wales Cricket Board
ECB is advertising for summer research interns. Programme named after my amazing Coauthor Ivan Jaccard, who sadly passed away earlier this year. An amazing opportunity, so do apply!
www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic...
Finally, our estimation technique is fantastic at isolating individual events, but that means we ignore prolonged droughts, regions repeatedly hit by events and compound drought/heatwaves. That means we likely underestimate the full economic impact of extreme events 5/5
Floods are the interesting case. For high-income regions, investment, capital, productivity and output all increase, a genuine case of "build back better". But the opposite is true of less well-off regions. That is why it's vital to ensure proper insurance coverage and bolster EU disaster funds. 4/5
Impact of droughts also intensifies over time, partly through lower population. After 4 years, output is 2.4% lower on average. Agriculture impacted, as are services. 3/5
For heatwaves, we find an average impact on output of -1.4% after four years. We also find evidence suggestive of adaptation spending. In hotter regions, capital increases but productivity falls. We don't see either impact in cooler regions, where construction gets a boost. 2/5
New ECB working paper out today: www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw... looks at the impact of extreme climate events over the medium term. We find that impacts on output can not only be prolonged, but can actually intensify. More details 👇 1/5
A global database for energy consumer prices with 100+ countries. Energy Economics, link to data in abstract www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
A very Happy Christmas to you all
New ECB blog by Friderike Kuik, Wolfgang Modery, Christiane Nickel and me. Looks at what happens to monetary policy if we don't tackle climate change.
Five-word summary: climate change prejudices primary mandate.
www.ecb.europa.eu//press/blog/...
ECB is once more hosting a PhD prize at its annual Sintra conference next year. It truly is an amazing conference, and brilliant engagement by top policymakers with poster presenters. If you qualify, apply by 12 February! www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferen...
