Drew Engelhardt

Survey 160 is hiring for multiple contract survey manager roles. This is a particularly good fit for PhD students who are looking for some experience in industry or for someone a few years out of undergrad with some experience in the survey industry already. Please reach out to me with any questions

An Improved Question Format for Measuring Conspiracy Beliefs Abstract . In an era of increasing partisan polarization and media fragmentation, interest in the causes of conspiracy beliefs has been growing rapidly. Ho

On better ways to ask conspiracy beliefs: academic.oup.com/poq/article-...

On why we might worry about including generic T/F items in surveys in the first place:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Example of how question wording can distort inferences. Figure suggests conspiracists quite likely to endorse political violence.

Conspiracy is summed "Trues" to a set of specific conspiracy beliefs.
Political violence is "agree."

Common to both? Acquiescence.

manhattan.institute/article/the-...

2 two-year postdocs on children’s political socialization at Aarhus University - Vacancy at Aarhus University Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University

🔥 POSTDOC POSITIONS ON CHILDREN'S POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION 🔥

Wanna understand young people's beliefs about political leadership, politics, and power? Then this is your chance! I'm looking for two 2-year postdocs to join my ERC-funded research project @au.dk
international.au.dk/about/profil...

I love Organ Pipe. Camped there regularly in December for a few years on trips out to San Diego. Was a great place to reset after the semester.

Hello, yes, I too have a take on the Bad Coffee Op-Ed, but mine is about data quality

(These are not necessarily in opposition, e.g. "specialty" could include grocery store beverages or similar, but I do not think 42% of Americans are ordering daily fancyccinos.)

Do a good turn

The past, present, and future of SEM, with Ken Bollen, tomorrow…

It would have been great if this was the last thing that happened before the Red Wedding in Game of Thrones

Less hardball, more regular efforts at accountability. Recalling start of Obama with Iraq followup that never went anywhere or Biden and J6. Potentially paired with self-policing on things like stock trading bans. So general "clean up" type efforts.

I wonder about the potential for something issue evolutiony on good governance.

Bring back guano mines

The Violent Take It by Force: The Christian Movement That Is Threatening Our Democracy When charismatic believers wage spiritual battles, ideas can take tangible form. With scholarly precision and narrative force, religion scholar Matthew D. Taylor makes intelligible the language, leade...

This might be of interest

www.broadleafbooks.com/store/produc...

As fun is the randomness in what's returned in summaries.

Example case here on within and between LLM comparisons on sources cited when querying them about political candidates: caucusai.substack.com/p/the-source...

I'll never understand a "grace period" on traffic enforcement.

Maybe I'll save the email I was going to send you for a little in the future... 😂

White Americans Say They’re Less Prejudiced But those who already have racist views may be emboldened.

Realized this corroborates cross-sectionally the "rise of Trump, fall of prejudice" conclusion from @dhopkins1776.bsky.social & Washington (doi.org/10.1093/poq/...)

Old 538 summary
fivethirtyeight.com/features/pre...

Shifts across survey years appear for Dems and Reps.

The meaning of precision in geographical degrees.

±100°: You don't know where it is.
±10°: You know it's on a specific continent.
±1°: You know it's within about an hour's drive.
±0.1°: You could bike to it.
±0.01°: You could walk to it.
±0.001°: You could probably see it.

Love this question.

Drugs — Recreational and Illegal Overall, how would you describe the problem of drugs [ROTATED: in the United States/in the area where you live] -- is it extremely serious, very serious, moderately serious, not too serious, or not se...

Gallup's MIP series has coded for this but I am not sure how regularly.

PDF here has more trends, including a "progress on illegal drugs" Q starting in the 1970s: news.gallup.com/file/poll/69...

And a a little bit more here maybe
news.gallup.com/poll/1657/il...

One approach to the age-period-cohort problem: Just don’t. Just to cause yourself more problems, you seek for something. But there is no need for you to seek anything. You have plenty, and you have just enough problems. Shunryū Suzuki in a 1971 talk A ...

Fully inspired by the just plot things recommendation to the APC problem.

www.the100.ci/2026/02/13/o...

Last few weeks teaching has had me thinking a fair bit about age, period, and cohort effects on attitudes so cooked up these two figures out of interest. Sharing if interesting to folks.

For those interested in measuring political violence, check out Lily and Nathan's new review paper below. See also my forthcoming paper at POQ (w/ @llopez.bsky.social and Lucas Lothamer) introducing our own measure scottaclifford.com/wp-content/u...

How to Measure Public Support for Political Violence Abstract. With low but rising levels of violent political threats and violent acts by civilians in the United States, researchers increasingly want to meas

After nearly a decade measuring American public support for political violence, @nathankalmoe.bsky.social and I have published a somewhat comprehensive guide to measuring these attitudes. This includes historical comparisons and responses to common critiques. doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

When your operationalization doesn't match your conceptualization

Send Noem Back Home old fashioned marketing post.

Bless DC

We can't even treat the country level variation as informative (left) because acquiescence bias various across cultural contexts too (example evidence right from the link).

bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

That aggregate result is suspicious for multiple reasons now.

bsky.app/profile/stat...

A line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Net approval of Donald Trump's handling of the economy in his first term and second term." The chart has the sub-headline: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling these specific issues? [Jobs and the economy / the economy] (% of U.S. adult citizens who strongly or somewhat approve minus the % who strongly or somewhat disapprove)." The chart has the note: "Note: Responses of "not sure" are not shown. Respondents have sometimes been asked about "the economy" and sometimes about "jobs and the economy.""

Economist/YouGov
Net approval for Trump's handling of the economy at this stage of...
• Trump's current term -21 (low -23; start +12)
• Trump's first term +3
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

Just going to assume this is Buddy