@jimwhittington
Retired BLM/NPS/USFS - Courtesy faculty with Oregon State's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. Interested in wildland fire, incident management, climate change, history, public health, & crisis comms. Texas expat. Birthday: 318.51
Hydrologists described California's snowmelt the past three weeks as "unprecedented" and say the snowpack, already the lowest in more than a decade, will shrink further during a record-shattering heat wave next week. #CAwx
Yes, bad soliloquies before questions lead to bad and confusing answers.
Still, a draft was mentioned in the lead up. For any normal spokesperson, that's a red flag and the first thing to do before answering the question about troops would be to definitively take that off the table.
Since I live on the West Coast, the seemingly inevitable Monday morning Wall Street panic will be well underway by the time I wake up and fix a bagel. Maybe I'll wait until 10 or so to check the news.
Drove over the top to Bend this weekend. South Cascades snow levels are indeed low--6-8 inches when it should be 6-8 feet. That means the higher elevations will come online for fire much earlier this year. With a major mid-July or August lightning bust, we'll burn more big holes in the canopies.
Lawmakers aren't the only ones concerned. I don't like how this year is shaping up, what with the low snowpack across the Western US and markers similar to 2015 here in the Pacific Northwest. But in 2015, we had a functioning wildland fire response org and there is a big question about that in 2026.
Of course, it all depends on ignitions and lightning is terribly tough to predict outside of 2-3 days. We will have the conditions though.
Everyone should take advantage of now and get rest, training, and family time. It could be a long summer for many across the hemisphere.
Most likely, we'll see fires in Florida through April with some in the Southern Great Plains, followed by late May/June fires in Arizona & New Mexico. By mid-July, we could have multiple states with large fires, though it might kick off earlier given that low snowpack = lower soil & fuel moistures.
At one point in 2015, there was enough open fire line to stretch from Seattle to Milwaukee. Here are maps of 2015 large fire activity from Washington and Oregon:
It's too wet here in Oregon, Washington, and Northern California right now. However, we are low on snow and unlikely to make up the deficit. There is no part of the Western US that has average snowpack this year and much of the NW and SW are under 40%. Looking like 2015, which was a rough fire year.
Since some of our thinking about objectives came out of the military, it seems a good time to note the value of well-worded, well-thought out, realistic, and achievable objectives. 6/6
Objectives must also be realistic. As the saying goes, hope is not a strategy. Or an objective.
Having good objectives means you are not wedded to a specific tactical plan and can adapt and adjust as the situation changes. Objectives can also change over time to meet new developments. 5/
Good objectives not only include the what, when, and where, but also the why. The "why" is often the critical piece that responders can build a decision around. Good objectives may have a tactical element, but the strategic overrides any tactical assumptions. 4/
If that happens, you quickly find your team scattered all over the place and it takes a lot of time and energy to regroup for any needed collective action. Additionally, the communities you serve tend to start filling in the blanks and you get rumors and mis-info popping up. 3/
We must trust folks to make good decisions and to make those good decisions with the objectives in mind. If you don't have clear objectives, people will substitute their own, often based on their previous individual experiences or understanding of the incident. 2/
In responding to wildland fires & other disasters, we put a lot of emphasis on establishing clear objectives. On the fire line & on the front line in other crises, there are thousands of large & small decisions that must be made daily. It is impossible to consult with leadership about every one. 1/
Woke up at 3:30 to check out the lunar eclipse. Pretty cool.
(Phone pic does not do it justice,)
Early map of the Republic of Texas.
And let the High Holy Days of Texas History commence. Between today, which is both Texas Independence Day and Sam Houston's birthday, and April 21, which is San Jacinto Day, I will eat chili, drink Lone Star, listen to Joe Ely, and dream of bluebonnets.
(Yes, I know ALL the Texas history, thanks.)
Well, this is a frightening scientific paper. It certainly raises the bar for "doom-scrolling."
Great. I wake up to let the dog out & have been unable to go back to sleep after first glancing at the news & then being compelled to read all the news.
Note to self: fill up the truck, start saving for likely future shocks, & don't ever be stupid enough to think this can't affect you & yours.
Wildland firefighters argue about boots.
Early 1900s political cartoon showing Teddy Roosevelt swinging a big stick over the bodies of fat cat caricatures of large trusts. The caption reads, "No molly-coddling here."
Where have you gone, Teddy Roosevelt?
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Woo, woo, woo
What's that you say, Mrs. Robinson?
Trust buster has left and gone away.
Hey, hey, hey
Hey, hey, hey
I continue my video making journey youtu.be/e4SrXohYE8g?... #disasters #risk
Acabo de encontrar este vídeo que ejemplifica por qué NO se deben usar medios aéreos de extinción en combate de incendios estructurales (y menos aún de noche).
Los Ángeles. 26 de octubre 2017. Grabado desde el heli de ABC7.
Podría haber colapsado toda la estructura.
Record high winter temperatures and ongoing snow drought are leaving New Mexico with a fraction of its typical snow pack and at higher risk of wildfire, even after accounting for February storms, according to a recent briefing from NOAA scientists.
buff.ly/OjuSVwX
We need an international response force and an approach + training that relies less on the tactical (because the conditions will eventually overwhelm) and more on the strategic, including the messy social science parts like communications and community action. 3/3
"...extreme fire weather conditions were increasing in places inside regions like North America, but also seeing severe fire weather line up across far-flung areas like North America and Europe. That makes it harder to coordinate firefighting efforts across borders." 2/
"...researchers reported that the ideal conditions for major wildfires are now aligning across different parts of the world at more than double the rate they did nearly 50 years ago."
Well, yeah. That's not surprising, but it's always good to have your spidey-sense confirmed by data.
I'm pretty happy here on Bluesky. Lots of good people and good info. Also, most folks can spell and know basic grammar.
I don't know how we have horse sports in the Summer Olympics but no dog sports in the Winter Olympics. Here's the trailer from "Dog Power," a short film done by my buddy Kale Casey.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XYu...
Well, here in the valleys of SW Oregon, we finally had a good 3-4 days of winter but by the end of the week, we will hit 60+ degrees.
Start making your summer/fall (spring?) fire & smoke plans and work on that defensible space around your home. Heat and lightning are coming.
