doinkboy

What is being criticized is the use of a change score to measure an INDIVIDUAL'S causal effect.

Readers should pay attention to Julia's footnote: "Technically, you can calculate change scores and then compare them between the groups – that gives you an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect" -- an inefficient estimate. What is being criticized ...

Nice to see this classic again!

Everyday wisdom in 30” from @jayvanbavel.bsky.social @davidmcraney.bsky.social
Your attention is your most valuable resource (“pay”) so don’t let others decide how you use it. Scrolling adds up!
No “view from nowhere”, believing is seeing.
Most political content on SM is a tiny minority opinion.

February 28, 2026 Early this morning, the U.S.

Why now? To what end? And for whose benefit? heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/february-2...
“Last week, Hugo Lowell of The Guardian reported that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, both of whom have deep financial ties to the Middle East, 1/4

to undermine the remarkable achievements of the United States by casting its founding principles and historical milestones in a negative light." -- #Trump should immediately remove the negative and vitriolic plaques in the White House Walk of Fame criticizing American presidents, Biden & Obama.

In the spirit of the #Trump executive order of March 27, 2025 -- "Americans have witessed a concerted and widespread effort to rewrite our Nation’s history, replacing objective facts with a distorted narrative driven by ideology rather than truth. This revisionist movement seeks...

Hi everyone, if you're looking for a #SPSP2026 talk to go to at a ridiculously early hour (8am), I'm giving a talk on how your childhood memories change when you're an adult (Room E258, Level 2; McCormick Place). Here's a preview!

Assistant Professor Tenure Track for Social Psychology with a Focus on Environmental Psychology - Universität Bern Universität Bern is looking for Assistant Professor Tenure Track for Social Psychology with a Focus on Environmental Psychology

Our institute is hiring
1. an assistant professor (with TT) for Social Psychology (focus: environmental psychology)
ohws.prospective.ch/public/v1/jo...

2. an assistant lecturer (with TT) for Experimental Personality Psychology
ohws.prospective.ch/public/v1/jo...

Rethinking 'WEIRD': It's Time for a Change If we want to reduce Western bias in psychology, we should stop labeling people as WEIRD or non-WEIRD.

www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/one-...

Causal inference for psychologists who think that causal inference is not for them Correlation does not imply causation and psychologists' causal inference training often focuses on the conclusion that therefore experiments are needed—without much consideration for the causal infer...

You need to bring in the same toolkit as in studies that try to establish causality without randomization.

I know it sounds unfair, but I don’t make the rules. These situations are instances of post-treatment bias, if you want to read up on it as a psychologist:

NYU is hiring two postdocs at the Center for Social Media, AI & Politics:
csmapnyu.org/jobs

And a grant manager in Sociology with the Social Science Research Hub:
uscareers-nyu.icims.com/jobs/15327/g...

I'm part of both groups--please share with anyone who is interested!

Just got my copy. Excited to read!

🚨🚨 My lab is hiring a Postdoc! 🚨🚨

Postdoc opening in my lab at Harvard Psych (start: Summer/Fall 2026).

We study identity, group dynamics, language, & politics.

Rolling review begins 3/14
Apply: academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15806

Please repost + tag folks who might be a good fit! 👇

Lots to say on this, but one thing recently came to my mind is the isomorphism between “wide format” & “long format” for panel datasets. The latter treats time as a variable, which confuses the issue, at least conceptually. DiD with wide format is clear and here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Gain Scores Revisited: A Graphical Models Perspective - Yongnam Kim, Peter M. Steiner, 2021 For misguided reasons, social scientists have long been reluctant to use gain scores for estimating causal effects. This article develops graphical models and g...

See Kim & Steiner journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... The design for difference in differences is a quasi experimental design, the noneqivalent control group design. Judd and I in 1981 in Estimating the Effects of Social Interventions have a very similar path diagram.

The Big 5 test is about twice as accurate as the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator for predicting life outcomes, placing the usefulness of the MBTI test halfway between science and astrology.

Any psychologist will tell you, the Meyers-Briggs is mostly bullshit.
powerofusnewsletter.com/p/why-are-we...

In 2015 the Open Science Collaboration (OSC) (Nosek et al 2015) published a highly influential paper which claimed that a large fraction of published results in the psychological sciences were not reproducible. In this article we review this claim from several points of view. We first offer an extended analysis of the methods used in that study. We show that the OSC methodology induces a bias that is able by itself to explain the discrepancy between the OSC estimates of reproducibility and other more optimistic estimates made by similar studies. The article also offers a more general literature review and discussion of reproducibility in experimental science. We argue, for both scientific and ethical reasons, that a considered balance of false positive and false negative rates is preferable to a single-minded concentration on false positive rates alone.

Overestimated effect sizes and underestimated power explain the Open Science Collaboration's (2015) low reproducibility rates.

Preprint by Almudevar & Almudevar (2026): arxiv.org/abs/2602.15697

Favoring parsimonity isn't really a good approach when it comes to confounder control -- *not* including a variable usually entails stronger assumptions, so keeping the model "lightweight" implies a lot of additional assumptions.

One approach to the age-period-cohort problem: Just don’t. Just to cause yourself more problems, you seek for something. But there is no need for you to seek anything. You have plenty, and you have just enough problems. Shunryū Suzuki in a 1971 talk A ...

New blog post about the age-period-cohort identification problem!

In which, for the first time ever, I ask "What's the mechanism?" and also suggest that sometimes you may actually *not* be interested in causal inference.

www.the100.ci/2026/02/13/o...

Postdoc position!

Myself and @jordanaxt.bsky.social are seeking applications for a shared post-doctoral researcher at McGill, beginning Fall 2026.

Topic area broadly centered on intergroup dynamics, prejudice, discrimination

Full description here: hehmanlab.org/ad
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Sometimes a causal effect is just a causal effect (regardless of how it’s mediated or moderated) TL;DR: Tell your students about the potential outcomes framework. It will have (heterogeneous) causal effects on their understanding of causality (mediated through unknown pathways), I promise. It’...

To talk about something causally affecting something else, it doesn’t matter whether it’s sufficient or necessary. It also doesn’t matter if there are mediating mechanisms — technically, everything in the social sciences needs to be mediated somehow!

www.the100.ci/2024/06/26/s...

Irish man held in ICE detention says he fears for his life and asks Ireland for help Seamus Culleton describes conditions as ‘torture’ as he pleads with taoiseach to raise his case with Donald Trump

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

Everything I ever needed to know in life I learned from the men in the Epstein files
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/08/e...

‘Absolute hell’: Irishman with valid US work permit held by Ice since September Seamus Culleton has been in a detention facility in Texas for nearly five months despite having no criminal record

Absolute hell: Irishman with valid US work permit held by ICE since September
Seamus Culleton has been in a detention facility in Texas for five months despite having no criminal record
Originally from Glenmore, Co Kilkenny, wife Tiffany Smyth is a US citizen
www.irishtimes.com/world/us/202...

To a racist, the worst thing you could possibly call someone is a racist.

Who is on top: Margaret or George Herbert Mead?

💥New paper alert! Dyadic Decisions About Effort: How Caregivers Shape Young Children’s Persistence (with @reutshachnai.bsky.social)

One of my favorites! If you’re curious about what we’ve been up to in @leonardlearnlab.bsky.social, take a look!
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Thanks, Glad you Like it! It also Shows that you nees a Lot of Stimuli in Order to get reliable assessments

Sure, but the logic underlying the DK claim is that If you are intelligent you have an easier time spotting intelligence. I can See no reason why this logic should only apply to self judgements. But typical alternative explanations Like Regression to the mean don't apply here