A graph of the official NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO probabilities.
A shift from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.
#LaNina #ENSO #ElNino 🧪
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
Rubio: “Let me tell you, Iran is run by lunatics, religious fanatic lunatics.”
Let’s be clear about what the Trump regime is saying to Minnesota: “We will continue murdering your citizens unless you help us rig your election.”
*maybe
Drop copies from aircrafts: Tomtrails (ok may be not)
I really think The Death of Expertise should be required reading in High school. It should re-released today. It becomes more relevant every year.
And when asked to « explain something from the beginning », I always reply « well, early sumerians had no concepts of zero… »
Red colored line graph time series of global atmospheric methane abundance from January 1984 through September 2025. Methane abundance is measured in units of parts per billion. Current levels are 1941 ppb. A seasonal cycle is visible on the graph. There is also decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend.
Here are the latest monthly-averaged observations of global methane (CH₄; a potent greenhouse gas)...
September 2025 - 1940.59 ppb
September 2024 - 1934.39 ppb
+ Data: gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_...
+ Learn more: doi.org/10.5194/essd...
"Chinese scientists have detected plastic particle clouds hovering in the air over two large cities, indicating that these potentially toxic particles are far more abundant than previously thought."
www.independent.co.uk/news/science...
Convection ≠ Overturning: Why Labrador Sea convection doesn’t drive the AMOC: A simple explanation 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/01/10/w...
The North Atlantic is aging fast and losing its breath, new study finds: 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/01/10/n...
Furious Trump demands to know why Minneapolis shooting hasn’t sparked civil war yet
🧪We all know there is global warming.. hopefully. Well, how do we know? 🌍Measurements, global collaboration and a bit of physics:
www.lbscience.org/en/2025/12/1...
@lbscience.org
Southern Plains Drought in 2020-2025 Cost Ag $23 Billion
Drought in the Southern Plains during 2020-2025 caused an economic loss of more than $23 billion to agriculture in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Crop yields were low, and cattle herds were sold.
#drought 🧪
www.drought.gov/news/souther...
Someone wants to play Risk fullsize
Stephen Miller goes on a rant defending Trump's imperialist aggression against Venezuela: "We’re a superpower… we are going to conduct ourselves as a superpower."
Jake Tapper: "I don't even know what you're talking about right now."
Americans do not want war with Venezuela
Military intervention in the country is even more unpopular than Trump’s tariffs and health care cuts.
I'm not one to cite Thucydides all the time, but the saying "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" bears repeating these days.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
🚨🚨🚨 2025 finished in the top 10 for warmest year on record in the Contiguous U.S. (1895-present). For most of the areas from the Rocky Mountains westward, it was a top 5 warmest year. No areas had a historically cool year.
You probably heard the US admin is threatening to break up the National Center for Atmospheric Research: but did you know they already froze funding for the 9 regional Climate Science Adaptation Centers? From tracking invasives to helping tribes with drought, here's why the CASCs matter ⬇️
I wrote a book about the problems with bottled water ("Bottled and Sold") several years ago. Here's just another reason to avoid it.
www.wired.com/story/people...
Please read
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
Canada's worst wildfire season produced so much smoke that it spilled across national borders.
A group of UMD researchers discovered that chemical compounds from the wildfires remained in the atmosphere months after the smoke subsided.
My piece in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on the rapid and widespread increase in violence over #water resources in the past several years.
Record levels reported in 2024.
thebulletin.org/2025/12/viol...
If you’re taking some satisfaction from the MAGA crackup, don’t let your guard down. It’s when Trump feels he’s in trouble that he does the biggest and craziest things to deflect attention. Some thoughts... https://robertreich.substack.com/p/sunday-thought-really-truly-the-end
The snow water equivalent map of the western U.S. shows much below normal values for much of the region.
Snowpack in the West is lacking as shown by the snow water equivalent. Many basins across the West have snow water equivalents below 50% of normal as shown in red.
#snow #snowpack #drought #precipitation 🧪
nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#versio...
“the combat decisions HE has made”
JD Vance pushed the recent Russia-friendly "peace" plan, effectively trying to get Ukraine to surrender.
It didn't work.
But it's hardly the first time. Why does he keep trying to help Russia win? Because he's a far right ideologue who sees Putin as a culture war champion.
New from me, in @ms.now
This is a legitimate scientific revolution in meteorology.
Also, to be clear, these models are not the AI LLMs that most people are familiar with. They are machine learning algorithms trained on observations (actually reanalysis).
