some encouraging movement recently. not yet any huge pumps to the upside but it’s showing more bullish energy. currently back in the channel and retesting some obvious areas. if it can keep it up over the next month, i might start thinking the bottom is really in. #bitcoin
move stalled at ~$74k & was kicked down. Strategy bought $1 bil last week which partially explains the pump. with all markets red today, i’m moving more to cash since btc is relatively green. looking to add more later this week, probably thursday.
trading stack is 60% btc, 20% 2x btc, and 20% cash
the tap tap tap has finally broke back into the medium term channel. let’s see if we can see follow through and acceptance back into the mid to upper 70k’s. channel midpoint is 77k.
closed part of some 2x longs from 63k. trading stack is 60% btc, 26% 2x btc long, and 14% cash. #bitcoin
so far so good. retesting the underside of the medium term channel now. need to see some follow through above $73k
unless you’re day trading, watching charts and “staying informed” is just torturing yourself. if you needed the money soon, you would’ve sold at 100k. same as always during the boring periods, set price alerts and ladder buys and go do anything else for a while. it’ll all still be here. #bitcoin
peak euphoria: $20k in 2017
peak despair: under $20k in 2022
peak euphoria: $69k in 2021
peak despair: under $69k in 2026
in several years, maybe we’ll see peak despair again when #bitcoin crashes all the way down to $126k
tap tap tap
weekly chart showing all of the times since 2016 that #bitcoin has gone up 20%+
weekly chart showing all of the times since 2016 that #bitcoin has gone down 20%+
doing a trading review. this trading stack has 23.5% more btc than simply holding since Jan 2024. along with btc being up ~70% since then. i try to focus on amount of bitcoin instead of dollar value to gauge success, but current value does hurt compared to where it could've been if i had done better
general plan for the next couple weeks is to see if we hit mid to low 60s to grab the new leveraged liquidity. then wait for movement near the CME gap between ~79k-84k, which is also another liquidity hotspot. i think i'd expect a dump again after that unless we hear a good narrative to latch on to
closed the 2x long from the tail end of last week. 60k feels like a bottom but playing it a little safe since we’re testing the underside of the recent channel.
trading stack is 58% btc, 27% 2x btc long, and 15% cash. only real change in recent months has been adding more risk the lower we go
in the last several months, we've seen 3 of the top 10 largest liquidation events, with the 10/10 liquidation dwarfing everything else. interestingly, last week's 60k dump didn't even register in the top 50 events, which feels like true capitulation to me and not just a liquidation cascade. #bitcoin
bitcoin dropped over $10,000 in one day yesterday. bitcoin rose over $10,000 in one day today. just #bitcoin things. volatility is opportunity.
been saying for a while that i want to start buying again under 60k. if 60,001 is the bottom i'm going to be a little pissed lmao. volume today has been pretty incredible. by far the highest daily volume since the drop to 49k in Aug 2024 (yes we were that low that recently, you just blocked it out)
Bitcoin is cheaper than in 2021.
You’re being given the chance to go back half a decade.
If you’ve ever felt “late,” now you're not.
for sure, it’s an option. i don’t think of that as a cash infusion in the same way though. that’s a different category for me and i try to avoid margin where possible when catching knives. i see that as more of a bull confirmation type of trade
post from Dec 2024 about bear market buying. picking some random ones:
3) 200 Week MA - around $58k
5) Realized Price - around $56k
6) Pi Cycle Bottom - looks to be close to $72k
9) Monthly RSI - currently 43.57 (signal is <47)
next 6 months could be generational buys, if we're lucky. #bitcoin
5) Crypto-backed loan - put up some bitcoin as collateral to borrow money on an exchange. yeah...no thanks.
keep in mind, going into debt is stupid. don't do it. i got lucky doing it in 2018 and 2022. also, never borrow from friends or family.
also ignore me in the future if i ignore my own advice
3) home equity line of credit - tap into home equity but it's usually variable interest so probably not touching that.
4) 401k loan - remember me saying to pay off 401k loans last year? can take advantage of that planning now. monthly payment so not ideal but you're paying yourself back.
1) credit card balance transfer - a few of my cards offer 0% APR balance transfers for ~12 months and you can get a check instead of transferring a balance. 12 months of no payments to play with.
2) credit card personal loan - others offer 8-12% APR flex loans. monthly payments so not ideal.
as i've mentioned, not going to buy bitcoin with debt unless we get under 60k. i don't know how likely that is right now but i'd prefer it to be seemingly cataclysmic before willingly taking on a chunk of debt again.
how would i do it? there are actually some relatively easy options:
have milked as much as i can from stocks to my self-directed fund (the 'trading stack'). feels good to rotate from stocks over the last week while they were near ATHs and with bitcoin down so much. good bang for the buck. 61% btc and 39% 2x btc long. probably crazy but give it a year and we'll see
72.8k that we just hit is about as low as we can go and still stay in the channel. if we have a 3 day close below, i won’t be able to talk myself out of it being a bear market. if we want to see ATHs again this year, a bounce has to happen soon. #bitcoin
you’re telling me that the #bitcoin weekly RSI is near where it was in Nov 2022 when we were at $15k, but we’re current at $78k? and before then, it was $3.2k in Dec 2018? hard not to be insanely bullish for the future even if we see lower short term
good work! selling some on the way up always feels wrong at the time but it’s usually a good decision in hindsight. i’m also pretty confused with movement recently so i’m just going to assume bitcoin isn’t dead forever and will come back at some point. usually a safe bet
updated chart from september. we've now seen similar price levels of capitulation within the channel as well as similar time passing. if we want to continue the bull market, we'll want to see some relief pretty soon. #bitcoin
DXY chart from december 2024 vs now. if the macro environment had been a little more favorable, we could've had it all. still, imagine what happens if we see another 5 years of value dropping for the dollar. we're still relatively close to the top of the channel that's been in place for 50 years
quoted post is the day before the 10/10 dump. within a week hit 103k. i’d fully derisked by this point and feels good to have played it right but obviously in hindsight i should’ve moved more to cash. still, each cycle we play it slightly more correct. rest of the year will be interesting
that’s a bummer. plans are for sticking too 😄 as long as you don’t sell low, we’ll get the next one
