Happy to share my new paper published in @LAPSjournal.
Do voters take into account the deaths of family members and close friends when evaluating the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic—particularly when that response is problematic or even negligent? bit.ly/3MBjEDW
Maroon background with the text "Latin American Politics and Society" in white and "#OpenAccess" in gold. Decorative gold swirl in the lower left corner.
#OpenAccess from Latin American Politics and Society -
“You have to hug, nothing is going to happen”: Partisan Retrospection, the COVID-19 Pandemic, and the Politics of Death in Mexico - https://cup.org/3ZHSdvb
- @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
#FirstView #COVID19
far-right parties benefit electorally when the current government is on the left because there is an ideological shift to the right among the electorate when left-wing parties govern
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
‼️‼️ Check out our new first online article! 👇
Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? We find no punishment among the general electorate: voters in Argentina reward gay candidates, while Chilean and Mexican citizens are indifferent.
@rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
New publication with Lautaro Cella
Do voters reject gay candidates in LA? We find that most voters in Chile, Arg, and Mex do not penalize them, but voters aligned with far-right parties (e.g. Republican Party in Chile) do reject them at the ballot box.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
New publication with @turnbulldugarte.com in @psrm.bsky.social! 🧵
We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them?
Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Motivated reasoning is a well-understood phenomenon - or is it?
In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns.
doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here is a 🧵
From our October National Poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
Democrats=95%, Independents=68%, Republicans=29%
18-29=70%, 30-44=68%, 45-64=61%, 65+=58%
More data: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval.
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Spanberger now at 15 and change. please feel free to read too much into it.
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
I've spent my life advocating for a politics challenging oligarchy. It's been an unpleasant and difficult line of work, to say the least. So when I see the longtime opponents of this kind of politics suddenly appropriating it as their new "centrism," I'm happy.
A short 🧵...
basically every 2024 truism is dead. Trump did not build a lasting multiracial coalition or turn young men into committed Republicans. You don’t need to cave on trans rights to win. The pundits have nothing left to tell you.
The question for the midterms is:
where will Trump's approval rating be? He started the second term at +12, 8 points ahead of where he was in '17. now that gap has shrunk to about 2-3 points.
where will the economy be? Trump had a *roaring* economy in 2018.
From our UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion NYC poll — broad support for Mamdani’s policies.
From our Aug/Sept NYC UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll
More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
Today is election day.
**More data from the new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll**
52%=much/somewhat harder to pay for basic necessities
Less than 50K = 60%, 50K-100K = 52%, 100K+= 42%
White = 48%, Black=70%, Hispanic=54%
New CNN poll shows Trump falling to 28% with independents
Trump has lost 15 points with independents since February
More data from our new national poll 👇
depending on model, this suggests a shift between D+11 and D+30 seats, based solely on Abramowitz's model.
More data from our national poll:
** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll **
Presidential Approval = 42%
Independents = 30%
White = 50%, Black = 17%, Hispanic = 35%
18-29 = 28%, 30-44 = 41%, 45-64 = 49%, 65+ = 44%
More info: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
The new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll featured in @theguardian.com
Complete story here: t.co/Ug0MqHyca9
The new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll featured in @newsweek.com
The complete article here: t.co/VMkaXfLr6l
The results of our new national poll 👇🏽👇🏽
@umlcpo.bsky.social @johncluverius.bsky.social
