Rules-based Order Enjoyer

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He really doesn’t get it. The credible threat of a minefield makes it a minefield.

Crazy video of 20 Tomahawks flying through the Iraqi Kurdish mountains near Sulaymaniyah (filmed by someone standing *above* them), seemingly fired from Navy vessels in the Mediterranean

Iran, still, has nearly unfettered capacity for Shaheds and:

“The US and its partners in the Gulf most likely burned through well over 1,000 PAC-3 interceptors alone. That’s almost twice the annual production of the weapons and more than the US and its allies have supplied to Ukraine”

Not great!

Again, there were/are plans but they assumed a fundamentally different (not insane) strategic environment for such a war

there was no plan for "YOLO Iran war with only bibi," hence why the best they came up with in a couple weeks was "uhhhh bomb stuff I guess"

I am confident there are plans but they're structured by strategic thought -- ie, if the US were to reach a point of escalation with Iran that led to a Hormuz closure it would be with a coalition of allies and a national commitment to war that would enable wartime actions bsky.app/profile/mike...

I see that the war is still "very complete"

Eager to see today’s tricks and manipulations to ensure they close red!

And by “pretty much settle” I mean, it’s freakin settled.

Collectively, we as Americans, will carry these bloodstains on our hands for a very long time.

Right? Not to mention the distinct secular sources that pretty much settle the debate on the historicity of Jesus.

It’s a vibes-based world. We’re just living in it 🤦

The theory that the consequence-free reactions to Midnight Hammer, boat strikes, and VZ set the admin on a war high seems validated at this point.

The GWB term one ethos of: “we’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality” has infected this (much dumber) WH but reality still bites

The idea that America isn’t for everyone who wants to be an American is something that makes my blood boil. Posting a photo of yourself as a Congressman smiling next to these words is wicked. It’s antithetical to the concept of America.

Indistinguishable from a jargon generator, circa 2007

its cool how we’ve spent decades anticipating this exact scenario where a cornered iran would mine or otherwise deny access to the strait and the US gov is just like “woah, no idea they’d play this card in response to [operation: no iranian government official left alive]”

I actually think it’s cool @mikeblack114.bsky.social has a better sense of what’s going on than the chairman of the joint chiefs, this site has the juice

The enemy gets a vote?

To illustrate the scope of failure, this is like if EUCOM let Russian tanks drive through the Suwalki Gap, or if NORAD missed a few dozen Tu-95s flying around over the continental United States

How many mines do you need to create a minefield?

(Engineers and SMWDC, don’t answer)

Many people are saying bsky.app/profile/pt10...

I’m not a “our plans are measured in centuries” kinda person but can we *at least* stop throwing billions around at the speed of the post? bsky.app/profile/pt10...

Brent spike correlates pretty well with Jennifer Jacob’s tweet about @jimlaporta.bsky.social’s reporting on Iran mining the strait.

Just deeply unserious stuff.

Look i know there are a lot of people I trust saying that oil traders are pouring over spreadsheets with current reserve and transit numbers...but the last days kinda paint a different picture

Veteran who survived missile strike says field screenings 'easily miss' TBIs A retired officer who survived a 2020 missile attack says the military’s current tests aren’t useful for assessing troops in combat zones.

“In combat zones, traditional traumatic brain injury tests, which are intended for use in doctors' offices, can miss key signs, a retired officer says. A new test could provide better results.”

taskandpurpose.com/news/iran-at...

Is there an historic equivalent for markets being this divorced from *active events*

It’s baffling to me. We’ve been subsumed by vibes. Everywhere. Everything.

Hm. Ukraine appears to have “cards”

Iran is planning to mine the strait. Meanwhile:

Leading with "The vast majority of these injuries have been minor” seems like a PR mistake that’ll bite later.

Remembering the over 100 TBI cases after the al-Asad missile strike…