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Samuel Coavoux

@scoavoux

Sociologist. Assistant Prof @ENSAE & @crestsociology.bsky.social, Paris. I study cultural inequalities & digital technologies using mixed methods and CSS.

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03.12.2023
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Latest posts by Samuel Coavoux @scoavoux

L'article cité trois exemples d'IAg en sociologie/sciences politiques. Tous les trois utilisent un modèle non-génératif (des versions de BERT pour le français)

11.03.2026 08:21 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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les fiches de poste qui demandent un canard à trois pattes sachant jongler

10.03.2026 14:03 👍 7 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

Experimenting with Claude code. One great thing for research, often overlooked, is that you get instant feedback in a job that has surpisongly little. Not always good but it doesn't have to be in order to be useful. It's like a talking rubber duck

09.03.2026 18:38 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

Another colleague shared a complete, and by all accounts sound, empirical paper written by LLM, with some prompting. Some thoughts (and some of you will be sick of hearing this by now)… 1/n

09.03.2026 09:44 👍 17 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 1

On the one hand, yes. On the other, it feels like the time when we would read full papers from start to finish was gone long before LLMs, if such a time ever existed.

09.03.2026 09:59 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

I'm on board with the replication package requirement, but I don't see the logic of your argument here. If anything the tsunami to come is Claude code running real code on real data and then writing the paper. This is as fast as faking results. And Claude can write the replication package as well

08.03.2026 11:24 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

This proposes a way of using AI agents to produce research. Ok. But this bit is a pipe dream: "And human scientists should retain authority over — and responsibility for — framing the question, validating the path and signing off on conclusions." Here's why...
/1

07.03.2026 14:02 👍 26 🔁 12 💬 3 📌 3

i guess it's around the globe but that's how you know I wrote the message and not claude

04.03.2026 08:57 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

This is a monday morning in most editorial board across the globe

04.03.2026 08:56 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

I like the idea that a superficially paradoxical consequence of AI is that it will emphasize theoretical groundwork again.

03.03.2026 21:41 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

"An LLM that occasionally hallucinates a citation is competing against a system that routinely produces junk science dressed in enough jargon to pass review. If we applied the same skepticism to human-produced research that we apply to AI outputs, we’d shut down half the journals tomorrow."

03.03.2026 21:36 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Il y a donc un prof de Nanterre visé au pénal par des accusations de viol, agression sexuelle et harcèlement sexuel, condamné en disciplinaire à 18 mois de suspension à mi-traitement, mais il dirige un numéro de revue sociologique ?

02.03.2026 12:42 👍 6 🔁 7 💬 5 📌 1
Fiche de recrutement CDD IR CSS CREST.pdf Nextcloud - a safe home for all your data

🚨Recrutement au CREST @crestumr.bsky.social

Ingénieur de recherche CDD 3 ans support computationnel aux sciences sociales

Venez rejoindre notre cellule données appui au sciences sociales computationnelles !

Fiche de poste ▶️ nextcloud.lab.groupe-genes.fr/s/XMe4EGtRfb...

Candidature < 15 avril

26.02.2026 13:41 👍 9 🔁 16 💬 1 📌 0
Living the metascience dream (or nightmare) with AI for science | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

"The risk is not that AI will make science less rigorous. It’s that we will confuse what can be stress-tested with what is worth knowing." statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/23/l...

26.02.2026 11:00 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Postdoctoral Fellow in Sociology The Swedish Institute for Social research (SOFI) is part of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Stockholm University. The institute is an internationally leading research institute in the field of socia

My colleagues at the Swedish Institute for Social Research, Social Policy unit, are seeking a postdoc for 2-3 years. Great opportunity! su.varbi.com/en/what:job/...

26.02.2026 09:00 👍 17 🔁 18 💬 0 📌 0
Évènements depuis 6 mars, 2025 – 19 mars › Séminaire GARNET › Le Centre d’expérimentation en méthodes numériques pour les recherches en Sciences Humaines et Sociales (CERES) de Sorbonne Université accueillera le 19 mars 2026, de 14h à 16h en hybride dans les locaux de la maison de […]

Info #ActiveTigger 🐯 Avec Axel Morin, on présentera Active Tigger (qui avance vers sa v1) au séminaire GARNET (CERES) le 19 mars datarights.huma-num.fr/events/categ...

25.02.2026 10:13 👍 7 🔁 7 💬 0 📌 0
25.02.2026 06:50 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

Postdoc opportunity in Sociology at the Max-Weber-Institute, University of Heidelberg. Great chance for early-career researchers looking to advance their work in a well-established European sociology program. #AcademicJobs #sociology

adb.zuv.uni-heidelberg.de/info/INFO_FDB$.startu...

20.02.2026 07:21 👍 2 🔁 6 💬 0 📌 0

LLM-Assisted Replication as Scientific Infrastructure Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly accelerating scientific production, from literature synthesis to automated analysis. Yet this expansion risks creating a verification gap, in which the volume of scientific claims outpa
#sociology link

17.02.2026 17:09 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

One big problem of replication is that there are no incentives to attempt it. Costs are high and rewards are low as it is not valued as much as "original" research. AI will lower the cost of replication and make it easier to scale up replication projects.

17.02.2026 21:24 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The current and expected capabilities of generative models are impressive and frightening. Now that the technology is here, the question is not if but how will it be used. We could make even more papers; we could also organize collectively to make better science, starting with replication.

17.02.2026 21:24 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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A call for scaling up replication in the social science with the help of #AI and describe a workflow and a prototype to do so osf.io/preprints/so... Quantitative sociology is a particularly good use-case: open datasets, standardized methods, low replication attempts.

17.02.2026 21:24 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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Postdoctoral Fellowship (27) at Inria, France Inria, France invites online Application for various Postdoctoral Fellowship in their different Departments. We are providing a list of Postdoc Fellowship

Postdoctoral Fellowship (27) at Inria, France

#VacancyEdu #Postdoc #Postdoctoral #PostdocJobs #ScienceCareer #AcademicJobs #Researcher #PhDlife #PostdoctoralFellowship #JobSearch #ScholarshipAlert

vacancyedu.com/2026/02/15/p...

15.02.2026 07:28 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

11.02.2026 17:00 👍 643 🔁 223 💬 30 📌 51
Like the “uneducated” explanation, the “religious” one depends on a confusion between correlation and causation. Even if all women today with large families are religious, not all women who are religious have large families. Religion is correlated with total fertility, but not obviously causal.12 That is, something else mediates the association between religion and fertility. We don’t know what that is.

Like the “uneducated” explanation, the “religious” one depends on a confusion between correlation and causation. Even if all women today with large families are religious, not all women who are religious have large families. Religion is correlated with total fertility, but not obviously causal.12 That is, something else mediates the association between religion and fertility. We don’t know what that is.

Some people confuse correlation and causation, some people confuse causation and “deterministic direct 1:1 causation” 🥲

11.02.2026 05:03 👍 55 🔁 9 💬 7 📌 3
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TOMORROW 12 NOON Paris time at the CREST Sociology seminar: Olivier Godechot of CRIS fame on "Returns to Team Moves!"

Join us in-person at ENSAE or on-line on Zoom

04.02.2026 11:08 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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"Elle sut assurer à son mari les plus favorables conditions de travail". Tout est dit !

31.01.2026 14:16 👍 81 🔁 16 💬 5 📌 6
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Introducing Causion: A web app for playing with DAGs | Peder M. Isager Personal website of Dr. Peder M. Isager

New blog post introducing Causion - a web app for causal inference teaching and learning: pedermisager.org/blog/causion....

28.01.2026 09:23 👍 144 🔁 66 💬 5 📌 6
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Everyone is starting to sound like AI, even in spoken language

Analysis of 280,000 transcripts of videos of talks & presentations from academic channels finds they increasingly used words that are favorites of ChatGPT

Model collapse, except for humans arxiv.org/pdf/2409.017...

22.01.2026 21:11 👍 201 🔁 47 💬 17 📌 17
Markets and Mobility: How Employers Structure Economic Opportunity

Markets and Mobility: How Employers Structure Economic Opportunity

Intergenerational mobility, measuring the ability to achieve economic success regardless of family background, is a critical reflection of a society’s commitment to equality of opportunity. Rising income inequality has raised concerns about the potential erosion of upward mobility. While education has traditionally been viewed as the path to mobility, its transformative power is facing challenges in a rapidly evolving job market. This project reorients the focus of intergenerational mobility research by highlighting the labor market as an arena for the reproduction of advantage. It employs a comparative approach, using administrative data from four countries: Sweden, Austria, England, and the United States. It also incorporates evidence from a broader set of nations through cross-national surveys, longitudinal household surveys, labor force surveys, secondary data, and digital trace data. The project employs cutting-edge empirical methods, including quasi- experimental designs, event studies, within-family comparisons, decomposition analyses, counterfactual simulations, and diagnostic checks to rigorously assess the extent of inequalities in the labor market. The research investigates how family background influences the sorting of individuals to employers and workplaces, accounting for education and occupation, and explores variations in career progression within and between employers. It comprehensively catalogues and assesses mechanisms shaping workplace inequality, contributing to the development of social closure theory. Additionally, the project evaluates intervention strategies, encompassing both employer practices and government actions, to promote fair opportunity in the labor market.

Intergenerational mobility, measuring the ability to achieve economic success regardless of family background, is a critical reflection of a society’s commitment to equality of opportunity. Rising income inequality has raised concerns about the potential erosion of upward mobility. While education has traditionally been viewed as the path to mobility, its transformative power is facing challenges in a rapidly evolving job market. This project reorients the focus of intergenerational mobility research by highlighting the labor market as an arena for the reproduction of advantage. It employs a comparative approach, using administrative data from four countries: Sweden, Austria, England, and the United States. It also incorporates evidence from a broader set of nations through cross-national surveys, longitudinal household surveys, labor force surveys, secondary data, and digital trace data. The project employs cutting-edge empirical methods, including quasi- experimental designs, event studies, within-family comparisons, decomposition analyses, counterfactual simulations, and diagnostic checks to rigorously assess the extent of inequalities in the labor market. The research investigates how family background influences the sorting of individuals to employers and workplaces, accounting for education and occupation, and explores variations in career progression within and between employers. It comprehensively catalogues and assesses mechanisms shaping workplace inequality, contributing to the development of social closure theory. Additionally, the project evaluates intervention strategies, encompassing both employer practices and government actions, to promote fair opportunity in the labor market.

JOB! I'm hiring a postdoc for 2 years on my ERC MaMo project.

Looking for someone with strong quant methods, ongoing work close to the project's aims, and a desire to publish in sociology. Start flexible in the next 12 months.

Formal call out shortly, but contact me first.

21.01.2026 12:32 👍 101 🔁 109 💬 0 📌 6