@jacobedenhofer
BA, PPE @warwickuni / MPhil, Comparative Government @UniofOxford / DPhil student in Politics @NuffieldCollege & @Politics_Oxford Link to my blog “Often wrong, but sometimes useful”: https://jacobedenhofer.substack.com/
Excited to share a new paper with @jfischman, just accepted at JEL.
We argue that empirical research tends to be biased and overconfident due to a weakness in the dominant econometric framework: insufficient attention paid to humans “in the loop” with the research process. 1/
Beyond energy, closure of Hormuz Straits could have ripple effects on agricultural staples
• Around one-third of global fertiliser supplies pass through Hormuz
• Prolonged conflict could prompt producers to cut back on fertiliser use, reducing yields
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I spoke with CBC News again (on March 8) about the Strait of Hormuz, its significance for oil, and the risks the Trump team are creating
@climatesollab.bsky.social @watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social @bridgingthegap.bsky.social @brownupolisci.bsky.social @brown-ibes.bsky.social
New blog post: LLMs are going to summarize your papers whether you like it or not — and they're going to drop your limitations every time.
Here's a proposal for how to fix that (and help with the reproducibility crisis at the same time!):
paulgp.com/2026/03/10/l...
What factors are shaping current and future paths of industrialisation? Do these paths differ from the historical experiences of advanced economies?
We are live! youtube.com/live/rX2dcat...
The sequel
As an IR professor, it's depressing that this is outperforming all others as the best theory of US foreign policy
This is a really excellent piece on the risks to Britain of falling failing to figure out how to thrive over technological shock of next decade from @archiehall.bsky.social
notes.archie-hall.com/p/britains-a...
FYI: @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social
Insightful conversation with David Rueda! podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/i...
I was interviewed with Claudia Goldin, Ron Lee & others by The Financial Times on how population may transform the economy.
I pointed to the potential, not inevitability, of it leading to more #gerontonomic economies & more #gerontocratic policy models
www.ft.com/content/1527...
Conditionally accepted at the APSR (w/ @scottclifford.bsky.social & @patrickpliu.bsky.social):
Why does political information so often change beliefs but NOT attitudes? We highlight the role of belief relevance, or the extent to which beliefs bear on attitudes.
Your regular reminder to exercise some caution when proclaiming the US electorate to be hopelessly polarised based on answers to cheap-talk survey questions. direct.mit.edu/rest/article...
If you missed the excitement of my Constituency App over the weekend - here it is for your delectation. Two versions:
Less pretty but more stable and faster loading:
benwansell.github.io/constituency...
Prettier but prey to server hiccups:
livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/Constituency...
Have fun!
undoing more than half of the EV adoption stimulus coming from pure buyer subsidies."
Europe. Theoretically, local assembly requirements can push down delivered marginal costs relative to unconditional subsidies. Empirically, local content requirements quadruple the expansion of cell factories in America, but they drive up costs and reduce subsidy uptake,
"Counterfactual simulations reveal a tension between boosting EV adoption and promoting domestic supply chains. Due to increasing returns, even unconditional subsidies raise the number of factories in the subsidizing region—by about 16% for EVs and 7% for cells in North America, and even more in
This paper illustrates nicely why political scientists interested in climate policy should talk & listen to climate economists, even though they don't always make it easy. They are v.good at carefully thinking through the trade-offs associated with policy instruments.
www.nber.org/papers/w34884
Here's a quick guide to setting up an R LSP for Claude Code in #rstats: christophertkenny.com/posts/2026-0...
Note that it uses the `languageserver` package at the moment, since I don't believe ark is exposed for a standalone mode yet.
Neoclassical economics emphasizes that international trade acts like an improvement in technology that is mutually beneficial. Tariffs are a tax on this trading technology, from Ralph Ossa and @reddingecon.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34915
Lucas Kritik nicht vergessen
Good interview. 👇🏼
@andreasloeschel.bsky.social points out that the current discussion of solar panel subsidies in 🇩🇪 is far less problematic than the weakening of support for CO2 prices (including emmission trading). And he, too, pushes for reducing fossile fuel imports.
Despite the extensive discourse about the supposed end of manufacturing in Germany’s industrial heartland, the shift toward the AfD among workers remains rather moderate. The vote share in this occupational segment is roughly at the level of 2016.
Incredible episode imo
Building on my General Election Prediction App, I thought it might be fun to build an app that allows you to look at UK constituencies in a bunch of cool ways. So this app doesn't turn polls into seats. It looks at seats as they are.
livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/Constituency...
Quick thread 1/n
Rechtzeitig zur #Landtagswahl: eine neue Version von „Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run“
(mit schneiderst.de/)
-> Die historischen Erfahrungen mit Einwanderung wirken sich dort bis heute auf die Wahlergebnisse der #AfD aus. <-
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Highly recommended!
"Navigating inflation and employment in an era of supply shocks and AI", speech by Isabel Schnabel at the 2026 US Monetary Policy Forum.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...
This looks like a must-read!
"Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments" by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko.
amzn.to/3PlSfqn
Not quite what you are looking for, but might still be of interest www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
