Trump's decision to bomb Iran is now the greatest windfall to the Russian war effort on record. If it continues, it might save the Russian war economy.
09.03.2026 05:24
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Trump's decision to bomb Iran is now the greatest windfall to the Russian war effort on record. If it continues, it might save the Russian war economy.
Threading some stuff about oil & oil markets, just basic but hope it helps:
1/ oil markets are what you call “finely balanced”. Supply is usually very very close to demand/consumption. Demand is hard to shift *quickly* in response to supply hiccups.
So even small supply changes = big price effects
i’ve watched this three times. VERY satisfying.
2/fahren. Das ist gerade ungewiss. Ich werde mich bemühen, zumal ich gern etwas zum CemÖzdemir-BorisPalmer-Wahlsieg in BW sagen würde – irre, wie scheinbar alle Grünen einen Wahlsieger feiern, der sich ganz laut von Werten und Zielen der Partei distanziert: Eine angegrünte CDU mit Cem an der Spitze,
This map feels like a metaphor for how we live our lives. We carefully step around conflicts (that are in no way inevitable in the first place) and carry on with our banalities. I’m not saying we shouldn’t but it does feel representative of our condition.
Crazy exit polls - and a historical disaster for the FDP and the SPD.
Apollo and Daphne, by Benedetto Luti, 1707-08, 📸 by Fumito Saeki @tshashin
Published paper proving that #ChatGPT will always make things up.
Not sometimes. Not until the next update. Always. They proved it with math.
Even with perfect data and unlimited computing power, AI models will still confidently tell you things that are completely false.
arxiv.org/abs/2509.04664
Wirtshausschlägerei, by Jan Miense Molenaer, 1650, 📸 by @andrewrittphoto
Höhere #Lohnbeiträge oder #Mehrwertsteuer: darauf beschänkt sich derzeit die finanzpolitische Diskussion in Bundesbern.
Beide belasten überwiegend den #FaktorArbeit.
Das würde die eh schon zunehmende steuerliche Privilegierung des Faktors Kapital (👇) weiter verstärken.
Economists: we award Nobel Prizes for work on efficient institutions and minimizing transaction costs.
Also Economists: the review process at the American Economic Review.
Last chance to register for the publishing in economics workshop, #EconSky! (Registration closing Thursday)
Happening Mon, March 9, 12-1:30pm US EDT.
econ4ua.org/the-craft-of...
The Nazis stopped Jewish doctors from practising, so thousands of them left the country (my great grandfather was one of them). So many left that this was a good natural experiment for estimating the causal effect of losing doctors on infant mortality (& thousands died)
The richest man owns X.
The second and third richest men control Google.
The fourth richest man owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
The fifth richest man owns The Washington Post.
And now the sixth richest could soon take over both Paramount and Warner Bros.
See the problem here?
Das KOF Konjunkturbarometer steigt aktuell um 0.9 Punkte auf 104.2 Pkte. Die Indikatoren der Konsumnachfrage und der Auslandsnachfrage legen zu. Die des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes stecken dagegen zurück. Die positiven Aussichten für die Schweizer Konjunktur festigen sich.
kof.ethz.ch/news-und-ver...
cool paper!
Pretty clear message from Friedrich Merz on his China trip: curb overcapacity - or expect more EU protection in key sectors.
Unlikely to shift Beijing’s policy. But clarity about the problem is good diplomacy - and a useful signal to fellow EU member states too.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/w...
Danke fürs Versuchen!
Yes, its a log scale, fairly standard for plotting long-run growth
The scaling gap is real: The EU has only 20% of the scale-ups found in the US and hosts just 110 unicorns vs 687 in the States.
A major culprit is legal fragmentation. Founders still navigate 27 different labor, insolvency, and tax laws – adding massive costs and complexity.
2/
The figure shows the content of feeds, by self-declared partisanship. Average content shown to users in each feed setting: the chronological feed (grey) and the algorithmic feed (red). 95% confidence intervals reported. Algorithms curate what users of social media see, raising concerns that they may distort attitudes and affect social and political outcomes. This column reports on an experiment conducted on X in the US in 2023, in which users were randomly assigned to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed significantly shifted political opinions in a pro-Republican direction, while switching the algorithm off had no comparable effect. This asymmetry arose because the algorithm affected which accounts users chose to follow, leaving a lasting imprint on their information environment even after algorithmic curation was removed.
Germain Gauthier, Roland Hodler, @phinifa.bsky.social, & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya show that switching users from a chronological to an algorithmic feed on X significantly shifted political opinions in a pro-Republican direction.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
EU demands Russia withdraw troops from Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Transnistria, pull nukes from Belarus, pay reparations, and hold free elections — all as conditions for a Ukraine deal.
"We pay back to Russian maximalist demands on Ukraine."
🔗 euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/19/e...
Alles, was man hintergründig zum China-Besuch des Kanzlers wissen muss, haben @tbenner.bsky.social und zwei Kollegen sehr konzentriert in ihrem Essay zum „China-Schock“ für die @internationalepolitik.de aufgeschrieben, dringende Empfehlung.
cc-ing @rbmyerson.bsky.social
New report outlining how we used text embeddings to categorize >30 million products of the ECB's daily price dataset in a cost-efficient manner. The goal is to turn billions of prices into snapshots of current inflation: www.bis.org/publ/othp109...
How did #Ukraine economy survive the RUS onslaught?
maybe a miracle but there are also fundamental factors :
1) defend skies, shipping lanes
2) fiscal stimulus ↑
3) vital int'l aid
4) play econ cards well
5) adaptability of private sector
#UkrainianView #EconSky
(w/ @tderyugina.bsky.social )
The EU as a safe haven, who would have thought
www.politico.eu/article/icel...
Important paper on X algorithm effect on political views. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
An outstanding expert on international trade clarifies the key point: Tariffs as an instrument of arbitrary power have been dismantled.
Locations of new homes built in Switzerland in 2018
Country-wide effects of new housing supply: Evidence from moving chains, by Lukas Hauck and Frederic Kluser
Another new paper on housebuilding and vacancy chains, this time with data on every Swiss resident & housing unit! An interesting context given Switzerland's high immigration, very large rented sector and strong tenancy rent controls... frederickluser.github.io/files/Moving...