Richard Skinner

A good place to test just how much Trump is hurting among conservative Hispanic voters. And how important Venezuela intervention is among voters most impacted.

Florida-27 was a 60/40 Salazar (57-42 Trump) seat in 2024, but was a 50/50 seat in 2020.

"we must decide whether an employer can fire someone simply for being homosexual or transgender. The answer is clear ... An employer who fires an individual merely for being gay or transgender defies the law." -- Justice Neil Gorsuch, writing for a 6-3 SCOTUS majority

I’m so old I remember when Reagan proudly said that what distinguished America was that anyone could become equally an American, regardless of where they had been born.

People will be nostalgic for anything.

Sen. Rick Scott in 2022: “The buck stops with one person. Joe Biden made your gas prices go up. He did it. He actually did it.”
Scott today, 14 months after Trump took over: "Unfortunately, [gasoline] prices are gonna be up for a while."

Please stop circulating the strategy you developed for Democrats in March 2025 or for that matter 2024. The terrain - issues, state of economy, party popularity - are different. Different terrain requires different strategy. Repeating the same talking points shows either laziness or indifference

Final results in the Georgia #SD53 (Trump+58) special election:

Lanny Thomas (R)- 38.7%
Jack Zibluk (D)- 27%
Denise Burns (R)- 20.9%
Blake Elsberry (R)- 13.4%

Thomas & Zibluk advance to a runoff, with Zibluk's 27% being a seven-point overperformance from Kamala Harris here.

NEW polling data on Trump voters: Overall 15% now disapprove of his job performance, including 19% of Hispanics, 22% of young voters, and 33% of Black 2024 Trump voters.

Affordability voters have shifted left on Trump and the House generic ballot:

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-borr...

Counting in Whitfield Co. is all done in the GA-14 special election:

The most Hispanic precincts and how they voted in 2024 vs tonight:

5A (64% Hispanic CVAP): Kamala +21, Dems +74
6A (69%): Kamala +23, Dems +64
AN (48%): Trump +14, Dems +30
ES (39%): Trump +41, GOP +4
GL (32%): Trump +39, GOP +13

JUST IN: Democrats flip a seat in the New Hampshire state House.

Dem Bobbi Boudman has won today’s special election, NHJournal reports.

(Boudman was the Dem nominee in 2024 & lost by 14%; Trump won here by 9%.)

This is Dems’ third legislative flip so far this year, after Texas and Arkansas.

The national average price of a gallon of gas is up 11 percent (34 cents) over the last month gasprices.aaa.com?state=DC

(It’s up over a dollar at the station I go to in DC. Maybe the stats are lagging?)

Mississippi result #1: Rep. Bennie Thompson easily survives his Democratic primary challenge from a younger Dem who argued it’s time for generational change. Thompson, 78, has held the seat since the 1992 elections.

NH political reporter Kevin Landrigan says Bobbi Boudman has won a state house special election, in a major upset and flip to D

Interesting first results in the New Hampshire #HDCarroll7 special election:

Dale Fincher (R)- 52.6%
Bobbi Boudman (D)- 47.4%

These are results from the town of Ossipee, which backed Trump by 27 points!

With half of the vote now in, Democrat Shawn Harris leads the large field with 42.1%. (Two other Dems combine for 2.5%.) Kamala Harris received 31.5% here in 2024.

The top Republican is Clayton Fuller at 33.2%.

With all of the early vote reporting in the #GA14 (Trump+37) special election:

Shawn Harris (D)- 43.4%
Clay Fuller (R)- 32.3%
Colton Moore (R)- 8.8%
14 Others- 15.5%

This one is almost certainly going to a runoff, but great start for the Dems in NW Georgia.

It’s too early to know how the Georgia 14 special election ends exactly; but any scenario where two Republicans advance to a Top 2 runoff seems ruled out.

It’s official

Republicans flip a seat on the Prince William County Board

Lots of turmoil for Dems after old social media posts surfaced for Dem nominee Sef Casin

The Dem who lost the nomination mounted a write in campaign

Dem vote split and Republican Jeannie LaCroix has won

Chotiner: You've made the claim that no one has ever fed you in your life.
My Cat: Maow.
Chotiner: Yet there's food in your dish right now.
My Cat: Maow.
Chotiner: Let's change the subject to the ripped-open bag of sandwich bread on the floor.
My Cat: Maow.
Chotiner: I have read different things.

Closer look at last week's big turnout in Texas, with a focus on Latinos...

Relative to average across '20, '22, and '24, majority-Latino counties saw 37% increase in primary votes

Other counties saw closer to 33% increase in aggregate

Starr & Hidalgo County among largest spikes (67% & 51%)

1/6

ya hate to see it paxmentum edition

None of those things require proof of citizenship, which is what the "SAVE America Act" requires.

This is correct, and a much better plan than to sit back and wait for Polis to do something awful

Schumer reiterates — again — that Senate Democrats will block the SAVE act

I seriously doubt he's thinking strategically like this, BUT the fact that he won't *sign* any other bills doesn't mean no other bills could become law. As long as Congress is in session, he can just sit on the bill for 10 days (Sundays excepted) and then it becomes law, just as if he had signed it.

CNN gas tracker: $3.41

vibe check: CNN now has a gas tracker on their front page

First turnout report in battleground county which usually has good turnout

791 early votes first day in 2025 and 359 in 2023

Expect today to be closer to 2023 turnout than 2025

Solid number, but not record breaking

Makes sense given Virginians not used to voting now

The war that Hegseth thinks was botched because we were too politically correct is the one with Abu Ghraib. (Also the one with My Lai, of course). Complaints about constraints on the military preventing easy victories are all nonsense and have always been nonsense.

I... I have questions.