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22.02.2026 07:32
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Annual surface zonal wind anomalies from 1992-2006 during the North Atlantic warming period show easterly anomalies over the domain of interest. This promotes the warming observed.
Annual surface zonal wind anomalies from 2006-20202 during the North Atlantic cooling period show westerly anomalies over the domain of interest. This promotes the cooling observed.
Here are the same composites but for surface zonal wind anomalies.
Annual 200mb streamfunction anomalies from 1992-2006 during the North Atlantic warming period show an established North Atlantic anticyclone. Its roots are connected to the Niño-flavor Pacific Ocean.
Annual 200mb streamfunction anomalies from 2006-2020 during the North Atlantic cooling period show an established North Atlantic cyclone. Its roots are connected to the Niña-flavor Pacific Ocean.
Here are some quick plots of the identified warming and cooling periods (i.e. 1992-2006 and 2006-2020) in the Reanalysis dataset. Notice the remarkable mirror image in the 200mb streamfunction anomalies between the two periods.
Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole.
Got a visible faint red here in cloudy Burlington, NJ
I think I might see some green in a cloud break to the north!
I'm not going to lie to you. I will keep checking anyway. 😂
I'm too stupid to help myself, but I keep checking the sky to the north here in cloudy, light-pollution filled NJ. lol
Significant snow squall across PA and I-80. These are notorious accident producers.
#LOT issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 3:11 AM CST ...DANGEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... Link
If you ever look into this or find the research that does, definitely lmk. I'm interested to know too. It's easy to speculate that there is a delay, but I could see nonlinear processes, E Pac forcing, etc. making it messier or not as clear cut.
Thank you for the plots! And it's nice to see corroborating ideas. I haven't had a lot of time lately to dive into things, but it appears we're still on track.
Yet another ridiculous day of wind in this state. I'm glad to hear she's ok.
At 10:15 PM EST, Leisuretowne [Burlington Co, NJ] Trained Spotter reports Tstm Wnd Dmg. Multiple large tree limbs down on a house leading to roof damage. Time estimated from radar. #njwx Link
READING/SPAATZ FLD,PA (RDG) ASOS reports gust of 53 knots (61.0 mph) from WNW @ 0254Z -- KRDG 060254Z 29029G53KT 10SM -RA SCT043 SCT060 BKN080 16/08 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 31053/0254 RAB0158 SLP067 P0001 60001 T01560083 53021
MIDDLETOWN/OLMSTED,PA (MDT) ASOS reports gust of 54 knots (62.1 mph) from NW @ 0141Z -- KMDT 060156Z 30020G36KT 6SM -RA SCT030 BKN065 OVC100 13/10 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 31054/0141 RAB42 SLP064 P0005 T01280100
CLEARFIELD-LAWRENCE APT(WAS N97),PA (FIG) ASOS reports gust of 56 knots (64.4 mph) from NNW @ 0036Z -- KFIG 060054Z AUTO 31024G40KT 10SM -RA SCT022 BKN029 OVC039 09/06 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 33056/0036 RAE11B36 PRESRR SLP096 P0003 T00940061
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@lawliberg.bsky.social voting was a lot smoother this morning in Northwest Burlington but alas it's not a presidential election. There were two booths with two stations each to vote where I go. I suppose that's sufficient for now. 🤷♂️
The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) satellite-derived intensity estimate peaked at 185 knots for #Melissa -- which, according to the developer at CIMSS, is the highest value to date for any tropical cyclone.
If it doesn't turn soon, it's going to follow 78° right into Montego.
Longest eastern eyewall inundation in the Crawford/Black River cove it looks like. You agree?
One of the strongest hurricanes ever observed just before landfall. Brutal.
Descending mesoscale inflow jets in close proximity to core that work with the core or non-perturbing Vortex Rossby Waves, all a possibility with Melissa's ability to sustain/resist classic ERC so far. Experts will soon dive into the data to let us know. For now, we speculate.
You can kind of see the subtle ridge trend here on the last 4 runs of GFS for 00z 10/28.
Beautiful loop
I wonder if the convection near the SE Coast is sustaining the ridge a little longer north of Melissa (in addition to any possible trochoidal wobble).
Raw T 8.4 now. 👀
🤦♂️ Average CRT ~-80°C
