x5ms2

if I ever do make such an error, I'll be sure to do exactly that

Does team slugging predict deviation from Pythagorean Expectation? Seems doubtful - BB Cards & Stats Here’s a strange one: does team slugging percentage predicted deviation from a team’s Pythagorean Expectation Formula (PEF() winning percentage? There’s absolutely zero reason to believe it would in t...

bbcardstats.com/does-team-sl...

Do bullpens really help teams "beat" their Pythagorean expecatations? - BB Cards & Stats Having examined the value of the Pythagorean Expectation Formula (PEF) as a benchmark for assessing manger value, I thought it would be interesting to extend the analysis and see if PEF can be used to...

bbcardstats.com/do-bullpens-...

From the "You knew this, but still" dep't: the evolution of pitcher useage - BB Cards & Stats Not news but the data picture is still–to me, at least–pretty mind blowing! Compiled this in connection with some additional analyses on the statistical validity of using teams’ Pythagorean Expectatio...

bbcardstats.com/from-the-you...

you'd figure Carlton would have to win 100 games himself for this to occur! Even more amazing than '73 Mets' real finish

Got a distinctive loss function? The mWAR Estimator is here to help! - BB Cards & Stats One cool element of the “mWAR Estimator” is that it is customizable to user preferences. Say the user were one who was trying to decide whether to retain or hire a new manager. What preferences might ...

bbcardstats.com/got-a-distin...

Billy Martin should have been Campy's target.

it was after Campaneris threw a bat at his head in '72 ALCS!

is it true that LaGrow is now wearing a batting helmet on the mound?

Stephen Vogt: manager of the year-again (introducing w162p) - BB Cards & Stats Here’s one fun feature of the manager-value estimator tools feature in the “Monkeys vs. Earl Weaver” paper: they use different instruments for measuring season-by-season performance, on the one hand, ...

Bayesball tells us that Vogt is one of the greatest mangers of all time! #Guardians

bbcardstats.com/stephen-vogt...

Monkey mangers have evolved ... a lot! New paper on Bayesian manager-value estimator - BB Cards & Stats Well, this sure took a lot longer than expected! And now that I’m here, I can see that I’m not even there yet….  But here you go–the monkeys took a break from Strato-o-Matic and pounded on typewriters...

bbcardstats.com/monkey-mange...

Good enough for cows, good enough for managers: mBLUP! (Measuring managers part 5) - BB Cards & Stats Hey—you remember Mr. BLUP, right? Also known as the “best linear unbiased predictor,” Mr. BLUP supplied a cool benchmark in our study of the performance of park-factor adjusted estimators of “true” or...

bbcardstats.com/good-enough-...

@thesmallhallpod.bsky.social @baseballhappypants.bsky.social @thewarmonger.bsky.social @bballhist.bsky.social @cira.bsky.social @yonxzype.bsky.social @therealtommy2tone.bsky.social @kickysam49.com @bloggertubbs.bsky.social @adarowski.bsky.social @x5ms2.bsky.social

Strat-o-Matic-playing monkeys go to mWAR (measuring managers part 4) - BB Cards & Stats Okay, let’s continue our examination of manager WAR or MWAR. As explained last time, MWAR is a career-level measure of manager-value added to (or subtracted from) team performance. It’s measured, appr...

WAR breaks out on planet of the monkey manager apes!
bbcardstats.com/strat-o-mati...

mWAR: empirically measuring managers part 3 - BB Cards & Stats So having recovered from our exciting adventure with Horowitz’s PH, we’re ready for another manager-value measure. This one we’ll call Manager War or MWAR. We’ll call it that for two related reasons. ...

monkey free... for now
bbcardstats.com/mwar-empiric...

after this happens, it's good idea to replace dice

Monkeys play Bayesball! Measuring managers part 2 - BB Cards & Stats So last time, we were on the verge of concluding that our featured managers’ Horowitz PHs were just a pile of monkey poop. The Monte Carlo Monkeys Playing Strat-o-matic (MC-MPS) simulation had created...

The monkeys with strat-o-matic boards are back!
bbcardstats.com/monkeys-play...

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