Koblentz reads the IAEA report so you don’t have to. The fact that the site has not been attacked (yet) lends credence to the idea that this is a regime change war, not a nonproliferation one.
A lot of ink has been wasted on debating whether Russia has an escalate-to-deescalate policy. Apparently France does now, in order to “restore deterrence.” @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
And tomorrow, it will be Wednesday.
When agreements erode, force replaces diplomacy.
The U.S. operation in Iran is a signal about what comes after limits and frameworks in the nuclear order. My thoughts below.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
The paper also quickly falls into the anthropomorphic trap; the abstract immediately attributes a “rich theory of mind” to LLMs.
Useful report here: U.S. has assembled significant air & naval power in the Mid East but still lacking logistics (and, I would add, munitions) for a truly extended campaign.
Doesn't mean US won't attack Iran but does suggest limited target set.
www.csis.org/analysis/us-...
One thing notable as I consider this episode is that I am unaware of any Biden administration official—by name or on background—who has indicated the Trump admin is wrong about this event.
These three steps are important. Whaat would you call them instead? Conjecture generation?
After New START, stability will depend less on treaties and more on strategy.
Out today: I argue for “disciplined ambiguity” in a post-treaty environment: not secrecy for its own sake, deliberate choices about what to clarify, what to withhold, and how signals shape escalation risk.
bit.ly/4bcgKOn
It turns out late-stage capitalism is the monetization of addiction and dependence. The opium trade but via universally available digital media.
So, I spent many many years working on my book, and it coincidentally comes out the same week as the end of the New START Treaty. In print from Cambridge University Press next week, and ebook is online now. www.cambridge.org/vaynman or on Amazon: a.co/d/0brNOTKq
![Book cover for The Arms Control Paradox: Managing Uncertainty in an Insecure World by [Author Name]. The title appears in large text at the top, with the subtitle below. The design is minimalist, using a restrained color palette and abstract graphic elements that suggest tension and balance. The publisher, Stanford University Press, is listed at the bottom.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wdsu42renkroyeley5zatmxd/bafkreihe264bkphwzs2nzvlitkw6gwc7ga46q3intsmnzwsdp676pvvotm)
Book cover for The Arms Control Paradox: Managing Uncertainty in an Insecure World by [Author Name]. The title appears in large text at the top, with the subtitle below. The design is minimalist, using a restrained color palette and abstract graphic elements that suggest tension and balance. The publisher, Stanford University Press, is listed at the bottom.
Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026.
It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder.
#InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory
New at Tusk: The officers who killed Good and Pretti were experienced and well trained. The problem is their incentives.
www.nti.org/analysis/art...
“Indeed, despite the anarchist belief that freedom from authority is the utopian ideal, anarchists are rather autocratic in wanting their definition of “anarchy” to be the only one in existence.” 😂
"What is the smallest British military force that would be of any practical assistance to you?" Wilson asked.
Like a rapier flash came Foch's reply, "A single British soldier-and we will see to it that he is killed."
-Barbara Tuchman, The Guns of August, p.59
I’ll be there just at the start, if you’re around Wed/Thu, DM me
Also see this Miami Herald piece from October that sheds some light on what might have gone on (and be going on now)
Another piece of the puzzle that connects Putin and Trump to Ukraine and Venezuela.
“President Trump emphasized that he expects the first two hulls to hit the water in two and a half years, a timeline that is not plausible given current understanding of the constraints imposed by the laws of physics.” 😂
“Swearing is literally a calorie-neutral, drug-free, low-cost, readily available tool at our disposal for when we need a boost in performance.”
And typically just WaPo and NYT *titles*
Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement.
#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
My @foreignpolicy.com op-ed is now live. It looks at what the nuclear policy field can learn from other deeply divided fields that rebuilt coherence and widened public engagement.
Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Cover of the report titled 'Threat and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats' by Amy J. Nelson, for New America's Future Security program, featuring yellow warning triangles on a dark background.
Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare.
Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.
☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
I haven’t been able to bring myself to slog through the whole NSS yet, but @carriealee.bsky.social has a reading that inoculates against “expert” attempts to treat it as something other than what it is.
Try Theories of International Politics and Zombies by @dandrezner.bsky.social
Kinetic also involves non-“military” uses of deadly force by what technically are civilians, including contractors, clandestine agencies, state-sponsored terrorist groups, mafia, and some mercenaries, that offer (among other things) greater deniability when used by a state.
OT: I actually think that *academic* international-relations scholars *should* be using "kinetic" more, but that's for a very specific reason: we talk about "military power" & "military capabilities" in a way that collapses their social & symbolic properties w/ their employment to destroy things.
