Andy Snyder

So no discussion on conditional intensity today? We’re only going to do that on the busts, aren’t we….

A special election in Georgia to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is headed to a runoff between Trump-endorsed GOP candidate Clay Fuller and Democratic candidate Shawn Harris, CNN projects. https://cnn.it/4rrHznH

A large cone tornado sits in the background of a rural stretch of storage buildings. Chyrons showcasing radar information sit at the bottom of the frame

A snapshot of the tornado tearing through the NE side of Kankakee, IL. This image comes from Cory Gerkin's live stream of the ongoing severe weather outbreak.

A FIVE INCH HAILSTONE has been found near Buckingham, Illinois by senior meteorologist @matthewcappucci.bsky.social as he frolics through farmland.

This may be the state record if confirmed!

Welp…baseballs heading into Chicagoland.

“Much of the western CONUS will be continuing to experience several consecutive days of drier and warmer than normal conditions. While fuels are not yet receptive in many of these areas, these anomalous conditions for mid March could begin to affect fuel dryness well ahead of seasonal norms.”

Woof

Temperature map from late morning today over the Midwest. Areas near Lake Michigan are in the 30s and 40s while it’s in the mid-70s across central IL.

Truly do not miss these spring days in Chicago. Not even 40 there while it’s 70 with a tornado outbreak forthcoming just down I-55. Metro still at risk for damaging hail though.

Upgrade to tornado-driven Moderate risk forthcoming.

Good call!

Georgia Senate passes bill to change state flower The Georgia Senate has passed a bill to change the state flower from the Cherokee rose to the sweetbay magnolia.

Georgia Senate passes bill to change state flower

NGFS Alerts Dashboard showing a fire and Wisconet data nearby.

If you’re involved in wildland firefighting, the CIMSS / @uwssec.bsky.social Next Generation Fire System alert dashboard incorporates Wisconet and other weather station data so you can see the nearest surface weather conditions.

cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/ngfs/alerts-...

Whew, caught it once when I lived in NYC - unsure if it was from sex or a gay potluck, but it was terrible and I’m fortunate the urgent care I went to in the city tested me for it right away. Sorry your experience was so shitty!

Today has that summer ridge-riding wind producer look with trailing hail and flash flooding tonight as the low-level jet overruns the cold pool. Should get into ATL after dark.

Corpus Christi may run out of water next year, and they are praying for a hurricane to hit and dump 20-30” of rain. The water loss “impacts are going to be felt tremendously through the state, if not internationally.”

Drought is climate change’s biggest threat.

The horror Israel/US has unleashed on Iran is going to unfold over time, over generations x.com/arianajasmin...

Looks like the West is next in line for potentially historic March heat, as @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social points out today. The Euro’s extreme forecast index the next 15 days roasts California to the Four Corners and adjacent areas. Fire season is closer than you think.

Cyclonicwx’s graph of sea surface temperature anomalies since early December averaged across the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the period was warmer than the 1991-2020 average until cold spells in January and February brought it back below the average. Temps have skyrocketed over the last 10 days due to an historic warm spell across the region.

Sea surface temperature anomalies across the western atlantic on march 7th. Orange and red shades covering most pf the region denote water temps as much as ~2°C above average.

The warmup in the Gulf over the last 10 days is pretty remarkable. Gulf-averaged SSTs were nearly 1.25°C above average yesterday, after being colder than average in the last days of February. The subtropical Atlantic is also toasty. 👀 Plots from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

At the same time, a Pineapple Express may take aim at the PNW as the high-pressure system over the Southwest guides moisture from Hawaii toward WA/OR.

A warm atmospheric river-fueled storm like this would follow on the heels of feet of snow this week, raising flood risk the week of March 16.

Preparing myself for the dudebro infiltration of MARTA.

Happy extra dose of melatonin tonight and late models day to all who celebrate.

Operationally, waiting an hour for updated wx models is extra annoying when you’re used to a routine. Maybe mostly an eastern time zone thing though.

CNN’s Frederik Pleitgen says black, oil-contaminated rain is falling over Tehran after strikes on oil facilities by U.S./Israeli airstrikes.

A big part of that is the hard freezes that occurred unusually far south in January. Hearing similar stories about that “look” of the landscape all the way down into South Florida.

On the flip side, we also have way more human caused fires caused by escaped intentional burns that don’t have a prescription.

The oil is flowing into the sewers and the streets are on fire in Tehran

right? lol

Damn, looks like it actually broke up and picked up the lake ice in this longer video.

Radar velocity on top and correlation on bottom showing a likely strong tornado approaching the southwest Tulsa suburbs.

Tornado Debris Signature southwest of Tulsa.