The Rugby League Eye Test

Pythogonerds

A few podcasts I listen to use the term "producers" for people who donate to them

The Death of Agro 'Tis the final event of the 20th century

Good to see the bath matt/sex pest puppet resonanting with the audience so much www.maroonobserver.com/p/the-death-...

As Alex Johnston approaches eternity, rugby league must brace itself As Alex Johnston moves to the edge of forever in his chase of the all-time try-scoring record, rugby league must brace itself for a chance that only comes around once or twice a century.

It really is an awful lot of tries www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03...

NRL Round 1 margins & set restarts, plus the return of expected points - The Rugby League Eye Test The opening round of the 2026 National Rugby League season has seen quite a lot happen, with two golden point games and two teams getting Scott Bailey’d. And the return of the Eye Test’s expected poin...

Some analysis on the increased set restart number & high margins from Round 1, including just how many set restarts occurred between 20-40 metres

Plus the return of the Eye Test's expected points model, with ETxP charts for every game

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2026/03/09/n...

Thanks, I'd been wanting to update them for years because Tableau is horribly inflexible and ugly. By the time I'd nearly done it I lost my data. Have some of it back so was finally able to use them. Can make a nice small multiples one too

NRL Round 1 margins & set restarts, plus the return of expected points - The Rugby League Eye Test The opening round of the 2026 National Rugby League season has seen quite a lot happen, with two golden point games and two teams getting Scott Bailey’d. And the return of the Eye Test’s expected poin...

Some analysis on the increased set restart number & high margins from Round 1, including just how many set restarts occurred between 20-40 metres

Plus the return of the Eye Test's expected points model, with ETxP charts for every game

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2026/03/09/n...

That Round 23 was something.

And IIRC 1/3 of that Round 16 was the Tigers alone

Of the 565 rounds of NSWRL/NRL since 1988 with exactly eight games, the biggest total margins are:
1. 2022, rd23: 258 points
2. 2023, rd18: 230
3. 2021, rd16: 214
4. 2021, rd4 and 1993, rd20: 209

We're only on 109 points through 5 games but I suspect we'll see an entrant in the top 5 this year

That -6 winning margin is starting to look unlikely

Even penciling in a 0 for tomorrows game, it would be already be the 41st highest average margin for a round since 2016

Only need the winner of Bunnies/Dolphins to win by -6 points tomorrow to avoid the highest average margin for an opening round since 2016

Fox League has it right in their score. Two distinct blues as well.

Light blue leads light blue in the early NRL game

Five games complete, average margin of 21.8 so far & that's including the golden point win by Canterbury. Avg margin is 27 without that match.

Highest avg margin in the last decade for opening round is 18.0 (2025) then 17.9 (2021)

Only 11 total set restarts in the early game from Wyatt Raymond, so a slight improvement on last night

Apologies - it's actually the third highest

Missed a 16 restart effort by Adam Gee in 2020 (Round 6, Dogs v Sharks), with two other 14 set restart games in 2020

Agreed, at best it's probably the difference between losing 40-4 instead of 52-4. They were just horrible, poor effort on defense and didn't respect possession when they had it. Lot of work for Ryles to do.

Nearly 5 years later... 🫠

Final tally - 14 (13 ruck infringements & 1 offside). Equal 2nd highest in an NRL game since set restarts were introduced

Three instances of 15 set restarts previously (2 in 2021), & three of 14 (2 in 2021, other by Todd Smith again in 2025)

No one wants 2021 again

Parra were cursed as soon as the footy gods saw this

Is it 2021 again? 🤔

Thought Vegas games flowed reasonably well.

Tonight is 2021 vibes sadly

Now 12 ruck infringements in 51 minutes

Same as the total set restarts (including 10m offside) from 170 minutes in Vegas

They let Shibasaki get away with this last year

bsky.app/profile/leag...

Ruck infringements in first 40 minutes tonight - 7

Ruck infringements from both Vegas games (170mins) - 6

Fox AI with the NRL spoilers

Eels to score in 30th, 57th, 60th, 75th and 78th minutes.

Melbourne to only score one more time in the 76th minute

Third game of the season and we already have a Grade 3 Sock Crime from Isaiah Iongi

NRL Notepad: Round 1 Preview The Notepad breaks down what is important heading into the upcoming round of the 2026 NRL Season.

Sua At The Back

“Those aren’t the first traits I usually think of when considering a Bellamy fullback, though.”

www.rugbyleaguewriters.com/p/nrl-notepa...