Great to have GPPi represented at Raisina Dialogue by @bressansar.bsky.social.
Here are some key take-aways.
Lots of opportunities for future-oriented cooperation -- and beefing up EU-India think tank ties and German/European EU India literacy.
If you want a detailed thread on Raisina dialogue, look no further - @bressansar.bsky.social has everything you need here:
๐ซถ
It shall be known to future civilizations as the Hamster era
And you are right, kudos to ORF for avoiding one-sided, homogenous panels. I am eternally baffled that MSC and others in DE & Europe have such a hard time doing better on this.
(Actually, ORF invited @tluetkefend.bsky.social and me for the first time after reading Better Think Tanking!)
Thanks for the great points & nudge - added some of my observations here! bsky.app/profile/bres...
๐ช๐บ EU diplomats in Asia say they see tons of positive visions that propel people forward in places like ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐ฎ๐ณ & the Gulf, while Europeans are low-energy party poopers (visible on Rausina panels, โThings will only get worseโ).
Futures work is key to turning that around. Letโs do more of it together?
Delhiโs ๐ฎ๐ณ multi-vector balancing towards Europe was very clear in recent years, with large official ๐ท๐บ๐ญ๐บ presence at Raisina.
I guess next years will show to what extent ๐ฎ๐ณ keeps hedging or throws its weight behind reliable (I almost want to say rules-based ๐) partnerships that reduce volatility!
Not just ๐ฉ๐ช: India also self-censors in anticipatory disobedience vis-ร -vis the U.S. ๐บ๐ธ
Yes, Delhi ๐ฎ๐ณ has taken a massive hit last year. But colleagues continue to be surprised by the silence on so many topics where Delhi used to be more self-confident (decapitation strike, sinking an unarmed ๐ฎ๐ท ship)
Sad so many from Africa, Americas, Asia had to cancel Raisina participation but great to share this reflection space with ๐ช๐บ ๐ฎ๐ณ colleagues @gesineweber.bsky.social @jpuglierin.bsky.social @almutm.bsky.social @nicolange.bsky.social @helenalegarda.bsky.social Garima Mohan, Shruti Pandalai &many more
Delhiโs ๐ฎ๐ณ multi-vector balancing towards Europe was very clear in recent years, with large official ๐ท๐บ๐ญ๐บ presence at Raisina.
I guess next years will show to what extent ๐ฎ๐ณ keeps hedging or throws its weight behind reliable (I almost want to say rules-based ๐) partnerships that reduce volatility!
By the way, the India-Israel ๐ฎ๐ณ ๐ฎ๐ฑ relationship is thriving. Lots of Israelis travel to India as a relatively safe haven in an otherwise hostile part of the world (not a new development). The government-level relationship is a crucial part of Indiaโs evolving balancing act.
By the way, regarding lack of trust, I asked some countries traditionally very involved in confidence building measures why theyโre not working on this, as itโs more needed then ever.
The answer?
Weโre too busy with ourselves in this volatile reality.
๐ฃ
๐ช๐บ EU diplomats in Asia say they see tons of positive visions that propel people forward in places like ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐ฎ๐ณ & the Gulf, while Europeans are low-energy party poopers (visible on Rausina panels, โThings will only get worseโ).
Futures work is key to turning that around. Letโs do more of it together?
While many newcomers to Raisina may have picked up an important ๐ฎ๐ณ history book or two (great!), emphasizing shared civilizational legacy clearly risks losing the future out of sight, especially in foreign policy circles. This will eventually backfire.
โStrategic autonomyโ is the term many in Delhi ๐ฎ๐ณ use (๐ ๐ซ๐ท). Lots of joint work on how to do this in todayโs world of eroded trust and unpredictability remains.
Strategic foresight could get us a long way, as interventions from @florencegaub.bsky.social at the conference have shown, and:
Also visible in Delhi ๐ฎ๐ณ: Narcissistic foreign policy continues to be costly, until we learn how to outsmart it.
Hereโs some advice @sofielillistoffel.bsky.social gppi.net/2025/10/12/w...
Not just ๐ฉ๐ช: India also self-censors in anticipatory disobedience vis-ร -vis the U.S. ๐บ๐ธ
Yes, Delhi ๐ฎ๐ณ has taken a massive hit last year. But colleagues continue to be surprised by the silence on so many topics where Delhi used to be more self-confident (decapitation strike, sinking an unarmed ๐ฎ๐ท ship)
Relatedly, erosion of trust in the international system is still under-appreciated as a variable that explains so much.
E.g. People look for reasons why Iran ๐ฎ๐ท didnโt settle with the US ๐บ๐ธ. How much of this is international relations 101, you need a minimum of trust and who trusts D.C. these days?
Visible from Delhi ๐ฎ๐ณ:
Brusselsโ ๐ช๐บ greatest asset is predictability, imperfect but definitely relative to most other parts of the world.
The cost of volatility is immense and increasing (๐บ๐ธ, ๐ท๐บ)
During my third Raisina dialogue in Delhi ๐ฎ๐ณ, a few things stood out:
- The EU-India relationship is real & more than the result of a hostile geopolitical environment. India needed to be courted for a couple of years but Brussels has done its homework.
In unserem neuen Beitrag fรผr @projecttogether.bsky.social argumentieren @bressansar.bsky.social & ich, dass strategische Vorausschau hier Abhilfe schaffen kann. Richtig eingesetzt, wirkt sie wie angewandte Psychologie, strukturiert Unsicherheit & erweitert den Mรถglichkeitsraum politischen Handelns.
out and biking like nobodyโs business ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฒ
Was hat Psychologie mit demokratischer Resilienz und Staatsreform zu tun?
Stress verรคndert, wie wir denken.
Er verengt unseren Blick, verstรคrkt den Status-quo-Bias und lรคsst uns an Routinen festhalten โ selbst dann, wenn die Situation das eigentlich nicht mehr erlaubt.
Scenario Booklet is Out!
๐Foreign Malign Influence in the WB & EUโs Eastern Neighbourhood โ 6 Scenarios for 2035 @gppi.bsky.social
The scenarios build on expert surveys about critical uncertainties & underrated future threats
๐Read here reunir-horizon.eu/foreign-mali...
@horizoneu.bsky.social
โฌ๏ธ Following up with our scenario booklet, we are happy to share our next publication:
๐ ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ข๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐
๐จ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ
๐ Read here reunir-horizon.eu/d7-1-anticip...
@horizoneu.bsky.social @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social
#REUNIR #Foresight #EU
๐๏ธ @sicherheitspod.de #103 ist da. Wir reden รผber Macht, warum Macht eine neue (alte) Rolle spielt und inwiefern Europa (noch) vergleichsweise machtlos ist. Im zweiten Teil erklรคrt uns @sofielillistoffel.bsky.social, warum "Narzissmus" eine hilfreiche analytische Linse mit Blick auf die USA bietet.
Warum psychologische Ansรคtze wie Narzissmus helfen kรถnnen, ๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐บ Auรenpolitik strategischer zu machen und aus veralteten Denkmustern auszubrechen (plus Top 3 Dos and Dontโs fรผr den Umgang mit den Trump-USA):
... moderator @bressansar.bsky.social for sharp insights on resilience and hybrid threats and outlook. /2
#EUenlargement #Resilience #HybridThreats
๐จHappening Now
Future-Proofing EU Enlargement Against Foreign Malign Influence in the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Georgia&Moldova
This panel examines different approaches to hybrid threats & malign influences among candidate countries @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social @horizoneu.bsky.social
