Great list and a reminder of what a tipping point March 11, 2020 truly was.
11.03.2026 16:17
👍 4
🔁 0
💬 1
📌 0
Great list and a reminder of what a tipping point March 11, 2020 truly was.
As a researcher focused on the impact of confidence on decision-making, when major events happen, I find myself thinking about the mood in the room in the moment before the decision was made.
On March 1st, I did just that for my clients:
www.linkedin.com/posts/peter-...
FWIW - If there is anything to be taken away from the past 10 days it is that in a hyper-financialized economy anything that matters can be easily and immediately weaponized - and not by the attacker so much as by the markets themselves.
Just a reminder that those at the bottom of the K are far more likely to know an active service member than those atop the K.
“It’s a huge testament to the psychology of American investors—they’re showing a huge ability to basically see the glass half full in any set of circumstances,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “The mindset has become ‘this too shall pass.’”
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
How you experience our economy depends entirely on where you’re living, what you’re doing, what you want and how badly you need it."
- Sam Sifton
Indeed.
For those who have held off, it looks like "The Confidence Map" is now half off on Amazon.
www.amazon.com/Confidence-M...
“ETF issuers are firing the spaghetti cannon at the wall in the hopes that a couple of noodles stick”
www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
Anymore I feel like the financial services industry is doing a historical reenactment of the opioid crisis with the ETF industry playing the role of the Sackler family.
Insatiable
‘The Roots of Populism in the U.S. can be seen in the flip side of the long ascension by Corporate America’s profit margins: the long bear market in labor’s share of income.’ haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-d...
“The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, and New York Fed researchers found that they were particularly high in lower income zip codes.”
I realize attention is elsewhere at the moment, but there's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...
"The 'K' is here to stay"
With xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic all racing to get through the door, the question isn't whether they can all squeeze through, but whether there will be a door at all by the time they get there.
Changes in sentiment can be funny that way.
"What is so unusual about this moment in American history is that the divide in confidence is so wide that at times it seems like the preferences of those at the top are all but in opposition to those at the bottom."
globaltimes.cn/page/202602/...
I see even our Super Bowl ads will be K-Shaped this year.
Yeesh!
youtu.be/aZ7Z5LTJWHM
Proving yet again that even bad certainty beats uncertainty...
Given the Nvidia OpenAI drama, it is interesting to see all the eagerness of bond holders. I'd have expected them to wait until they saw the equity raised.
LOL - Why not? I mean everyone else is using the letter for something these days.
"NVIDIA and OpenAI look forward to finalizing the details of this new phase of strategic partnership in the coming weeks."
Fun to go back and reread the September 22, 2025 press release in light of recent events.
nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/openai-...
“Let Sam announce how much he’s going to raise — it’s for him to decide. But we will definitely participate in the next round of financing because it’s such a good investment.” -Jensen Huang www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The collapse is gold, silver and other precious metals today proves that the big runup in prices had very little, if anything, to do with the "sell America" or "debasement" narratives but rather just fast money trying to piggyback off momentum.
There's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...
To summarize, what we are now witnessing is the volatile social mood of the 1970s paired with the intensifying and compounding effects of social media paired with EFTs.
Our morning garage band name - "Bomb Cyclone and The Polar Vortex" - comes from the weather world.
Their latest hit looks like it will drop this weekend somewhere along the east coast.
Affordable
Outcome-driven
Learning-focused
Merit-driven
Very cool to see other universities beginning to follow the playbook @williamandmary has been using all-oriented around generating clear, tangible results in public higher education.
www.wsj.com/opinion/is-a...
Or put differently, the stock market IS the economy...
"Me Here Now" policymaking...
As you reflect on this chart from @markzandi.bsky.social (via @emilypeck.bsky.social of @axios.com), I encourage you to think of it not in terms of spending or the economy, but as a reflection of the relative confidence felt by those at the top and bottom.