Tobias Fella

Just one thing about Macron’s speech on nuclear deterrence — we told you so in 2025: Peace Report/Chapter 3/Page 92; lnkd.in/dicEcsVq

Preserving the Moratorium on Explosive Nuclear Weapons testing : DeepCuts The Deep Cuts Project analyses the potential for US-Russian nuclear arms control under adversarial conditions.

📄 Our latest Issue Brief "Preserving the Moratorium on Explosive Nuclear Weapons Testing" by Lynn Rusten examines the current challenges and outlines how this critical norm can be upheld.

🔗 Read here: deepcuts.org/publications...

📢 New Issue Brief from the DeepCuts Commission

👉 One of the major non-proliferation achievements of the past 30 years has been the global moratorium on nuclear explosive testing. Rising tensions and renewed testing threats now put this norm and the CTBT’s legacy under serious pressure.

New @deepcutsproject.bsky.social Issue Brief out, authored by Lynn Rusten — this one tackles nuclear testing. Timely and important read — don’t miss it. deepcuts.org/publications... @jonatomic.bsky.social @nukestrat.bsky.social @jjjcameron.bsky.social @shashj.bsky.social

"Fundament für ein Wettrüsten ist gelegt" Das New-Start-Abkommen habe zu Vetrauen beigetragen, sagt der Politikwissenschaftler Tobias Fella. Mit dem Auslaufen seien die "Schotten offen für ein Wettrüsten“.

Was passiert nun nach dem Ende des New START-Vertrags? @tobiaspfella.bsky.social im Interview mit dem ZDF heute journal ➡️

www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...

📢 New joint statement out from the DeepCuts Commission

With the expiration of the New START Treaty on 5 February 2026, the U.S. and Russia will, for the first time in decades, have no bilateral nuclear arms control agreement in place.

"Pax Silica builds on a hierarchical model where Washington defines the rules...Some actors are brought in as ‘capability nodes’, while others – notably the EU and Taiwan – are treated more as markets rather than full strategic co-architects." www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Germany plans satellite missile detection system to cut reliance on US Berlin’s move reflects unease over depending on US capabilities to spot long-range missiles from space

"'Europe has been dependent on the United States . . .' Traut said. There was 'a strong need to build up some German and European sovereign capabilities in missile detection and interception . . . We not only want to be able to detect missiles early, we want to be able to fight them early.'"

Hegseth expected to follow Rubio in skipping NATO ministers' meeting, sources say U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is not expected to attend a NATO defence ministers' meeting in Brussels next month, two sources said, the second time in a row that a top Trump administration offic...

For Europe, it will remain a balancing act. A sensible approach would be to channel the US‑requested increases in defence spending into strengthening genuinely European capabilities. Trump’s statements on burden‑sharing could provide pol. cover for such a strategy
www.reuters.com/world/hegset...

Europäische Verteidigungsstrategie: Putin keine Chance geben Die USA prägen erheblich die Nato-Strategie. Doch mit Trump ändert sich vieles – und Europa braucht neue Pläne für die Sicherheit des Baltikums.

Yes, you would need to think it through. I wrote a piece with two colleagues on the matter last year, taz.de/Europaeische...

Yes, Europe should stop dreaming — but not in the way Rutte imagines. It should wake up and steadily build its own capacities. My colleague @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social Lukas and I explored this a few weeks ago: www.ipg-journal.de/rubriken/aus...

Proud to co‑author "Future Formats of Nuclear Arms Control" — a Deep Cuts brief on how traditional U.S.–Russia arms control has eroded and what practical formats (bilateral, multilateral, tech‑focused) could help stabilize nuclear great power relations. Read it here: deepcuts.org/publications...

Balancing America? Europe may one day need to act as a counter‑power. To prepare, it must start building the right partnerships now. My short analysis for IFSH: www.ifsh.de/en/news-deta...

Bedingt resilient: Was der Berliner Blackout Anfang 2026 für die deutsche Krisenvorsorge bedeutet Der Berliner Blackout Anfang 2026 verdeutlicht dringenden Handlungsbedarf für Resilienz und Krisenvorsorge in Deutschland, schreibt ein Autorenteam des IFSH. Foto: THW/Viktoria Pfeiffer

I co-authored a BAKS paper on the Jan 2026 Berlin blackout: Conditionally Resilient. It exposes gaps in Germany’s crisis preparedness amid growing sabotage threats. www.baks.bund.de/de/arbeitspa...

Berlin's multi-day blackout in early 26 highlights how 🇩🇪's critical infrastructures remain insufficiently protected against sabotage & other threats. In a new IFSH Brief Analysis (in 🇩🇪), Wolfgang Rudischhauser, Matthias Schulze, Mateusz Łabuz & I address the consequences: www.ifsh.de/news-detail/...

Traditional, state-centric theories reach a dead end when it comes to explaining Trump’s foreign policy. In my new IFSH brief analysis (in 🇩🇪), From Venezuela to Greenland: Consequences of US hemispheric policy, I argue that fresh concepts are needed to grasp these shifts. www.ifsh.de/news-detail/...

Die USA bedrohen #Grönland (Dänemark) und setzen damit auch die #EU und die #NATO unter Druck. Welche Art von Außenpolitik verfolgt die US-Regierung unter Donald Trump? In seiner IFSH-Kurzanalyse nähert sich unser US-Experte @tobiaspfella.bsky.social dieser Frage an. Hier nachlesen ➡️ t1p.de/qfwnp

Congrats, James!

Europäische Verteidigungsstrategie: Putin keine Chance geben Die USA prägen erheblich die Nato-Strategie. Doch mit Trump ändert sich vieles – und Europa braucht neue Pläne für die Sicherheit des Baltikums.

Lukas Mengelkamp, ein niederländische Kollege und ich haben das Thema vor längerer Zeit schon angestoßen: taz.de/Europaeische... & nationalinterest.org/feature/in-g...

Nach Trumps Ankündigung: Putin erwägt Wiederaufnahme von Atomtests Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits...

"Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits angeordnet, so Putin." www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asie...

Exclusive: US military officials required to sign NDAs tied to Latin America mission, sources say U.S. military officials involved with President Donald Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements, three U.S. officials say, a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion.

"U.S. military officials involved with President Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements [...] a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion." www.reuters.com/world/americ...

High Stakes Promises: The Challenge of Security Guarantees for Ukraine | International Crisis Group Ukraine is asking its partners for security guarantees – ideally now, but certainly before it makes any deal with Russia. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain why this topic is so fraught for Ukr...

Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.

Ja, das Verhalten Trumps und seiner Regierung ist konsistenter als es den Anschein hat. Der Punkt sind die Konsequenzen, die Grundausrichtungen deutscher Außenpolitik nach 1945 direkt betreffen.

Drones over Poland | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker analyses the implications of the decision by Poland and its NATO allies to shoot down Russian drones over Polish territory on 9 September

Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.

Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7

The Strategic Void in Germany’s Defense Debate The debate on the Medium Forces can serve as an example of both the progress and the challenges of the German defense debate.

Germany’s defence debate is stuck in a numbers game – more tanks, jets, and spending. @tobiaspfella.bsky.social and I argue that what’s missing is a genuine strategic debate. We illustrate this by examining the newly introduced category of “Medium Forces.”

Die Großen reden – und die EU schaut zu Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (CDU) hat im Vorfeld des Putin-Trump-Treffens in Alaska zu Vorbereitungsgesprächen geladen – unter anderem mit US-Präsident Donald Trump. Denn die Europäer treibt vor alle...

What could Europe have done differently to have more say in its own security today? I discussed this with Web.de News in context of the upcoming Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, web.de/magazine/pol...

Diskussion um Gebietsabtretungen Vor den Gipfeln zu Wegen hin zu einem möglichen Frieden sorgt der Vorschlag von ukrainischen Gebietsabtretungen in der EU mehrheitlich für Ablehnung.

I was interviewed by @zdfde.bsky.social (ZDFheute) about current discussions on territorial concessions ahead of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...

Am nuklearen Scheideweg: 80 Jahre nach Hiroshima warnt ein Experte im PZ-Gespräch - Politik - Pforzheimer-Zeitung Pforzheim/Hiroshima. Es ist 8:16 Uhr an jenem 6. August 1945, als der Tod in Hiroshima vom Himmel fällt. Rund 80.000 Menschen sterben in einem ...

I was interviewed by the Pforzheimer Zeitung and made the argument that we are currently in a phase of nuclear rearmament. www.pz-news.de/politik_arti...

Drohnen-Schutzschirm an der Nato-Ostflanke: Was hinter der Idee deutscher Start-Ups steckt Rüstungsfirmen aus Deutschland wollen einen Schutzschirm aus Drohnen an der Nato-Ostflanke. Was steckt dahinter? Und was sagt die Bundeswehr?

I was interviewed by Jutta Sonnewald via @zdfde.bsky.social about the idea of a drone wall on NATO’s eastern border. www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...