time for a drink
06.03.2026 14:44
👍 1
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
time for a drink
This week Secretary Hegseth gave an object lesson in the folly of hyper-masculine overconfidence: the administration claimed all week that it controls the war and Iran‘s destiny without boots on the ground. They forgot we live in an asymmetric world in which small acts have big economic impacts.
My Trade Secrets today. Latest superpower energy offers to emerging markets:
China - cheap green tech to wean you off hydrocarbons.
US - coercion into trade deal to buy US fossil fuels, then huge chaotic war creating global oil shock.
WHICH MESSAGE WILL RESONATE? 1/2
as.ft.com/r/8b8df69a-5...
Where do oil prices go now that Iran counterattacks w missiles all across the Gulf.
A literal trillion dollar question
Insurance → shipping costs → oil prices → a global inflationary shock.
reporting @leeharris.ft.com
ft.com/content/2dc1...
Despite being a late entrant to the space industry, South Korea has rapidly caught up thanks to a combination of mutually reinforcing factors.
@darciedraudt.bsky.social examines these developments and explores how this momentum can be sustained: youtu.be/eVXH0EL22Xs
Drone manufacturing is about the tight integration of forward innovation, flexible manufacturing, and scaling.
The countries that win have modular, AI enabled manufacturing platforms. This is now the basis of physical security and economic competitiveness.
I wrote about driving a Chinese car, the automotive trend not of the future but of today
open.substack.com/pub/musgrave...
A quick hit to help make sense of Trump's tariffs
Is it the case that some kind of long-term financial repression will be necessary to fix the Canadian real estate market? Current government's public strategy is build more, but this only works with financial repression (maybe too harsh a term but you get me), no?
This is good?
Finally, the article opens with an anonymous quote from a European defense official. I wish I could just leak to the FT every time I disagreed with the policy decisions of my bosses!
I mean yes, it’s going to be tough and take time, but leaking that it’s “not possible” presents a false dichotomy.
I mean, good luck, assessing the sovereign status of that in a consistent way.
That said it shows that the Canadians have real capacity to contribute to European defense value chains. Clearly this can’t be all or nothing. But the Europeans can build capabilities without the US over time. 2/3
European defence heads still stressed about building xUS tech sovereignty. An example in the article, Canadian-made frigates using a version of the Aegis system, reveals the complexities. The system is built on Lockheed 🇺🇸 hardware, but uses Canadian software from Lockheed 🇨🇦. 1/3
A true gift.
Fair but at least we have some slack capacity in battery factories. Not so for transformers.
The WSJ reports that the Trump admin is considering national security tariffs on a broad group of goods. Many of these probably won’t stand up in court as falling under 232 (think steel).
Either way, raising the price of grid equipment when energy prices are skyrocketing is a terrible idea.
This is the key dilemma in integrating AI into university education. All the 'innovative' tactics - critiquing AI generated content, using AI to reproduce good writing - assume skills will develop in the interaction, but it's like expecting food photographers to cook tasty meals
An emerging narrative around AI is that the judgment of individuals matters more in this new world. That sounds right, as far as it goes, but it ignores a fundamental truth about judgment—it is forged in experience. So if we delegate too much, we may be unable to exercise judgment.
BESS cheaper ➡️ BESS boom ➡️ Renewables cheap ➡️ Renewables boom ➡️ BESS cheaper 🔄
Seems like a good time to re-up this Bloomberg piece pointing out that tariffs were likely *hurting* not helping U.S. manufacturing.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Seems like a simple talking point for the elections: the affordability agenda begins with a refund to American consumers for the illegal tariff price hikes.
Tooze with the strong case for a European army, illustrating the logic that crisis drives European integration forward.
Yep messed that up good thanks
Tariffs hurt American manufacturing because U.S. manufacturing is dependent on high-tech and upstream inputs, especially from Asia.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
To deliver on its vision of middle-power agency, Canada needs a focused and collaborative approach to building technological capabilities.
Then it must integrate its capabilities with key partners through joint industrial policy.
My latest in the Financial Post: financialpost.com/news/economy...
My latest: Canada needs a focused and collaborative approach to building the technological capabilities and critical minerals supply chains necessary to realize PM Carney’s vision for middle power-led strategic autonomy.
The MAGA foreign policy project, insofar as it is coherent, the same old Cold war ideological hegemony project, except illiberal rather than liberal. www.ft.com/content/f869...
“Science & advocacy awakened people to the threat of fossil-fuel-driven environmental catastrophe...” @bentleyallan.bsky.social writes. “Yet it was naive to believe that this alone could transform a global energy system forged over centuries by war & empire."
www.noemamag.com/the-new-geop...
