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Jesper W. Schneider

@jesper-w-schneider

Quantitative science studies, Meta-research, Research evaluation, Science policy, Research integrity, Statistics - Bayesian and a proud methodological terrorist X & mastodon: @schneider_jw

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10.10.2023
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Latest posts by Jesper W. Schneider @jesper-w-schneider

Congratulations Thomas

11.03.2026 10:24 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Causal inference for psychologists who think that causal inference is not for them Correlation does not imply causation and psychologists' causal inference training often focuses on the conclusion that therefore experiments are neededโ€”without much consideration for the causal infer...

You need to bring in the same toolkit as in studies that try to establish causality without randomization.

I know it sounds unfair, but I donโ€™t make the rules. These situations are instances of post-treatment bias, if you want to read up on it as a psychologist:

25.02.2026 17:32 ๐Ÿ‘ 66 ๐Ÿ” 12 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
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Babbage, 1830, discussing the problem that scientists selectively report findings that they want to be true.

Confirmation bias is a strong human tendency. This is why we need to design science in a way that prevents conformation bias from leading us away from the truth.

14.02.2026 16:32 ๐Ÿ‘ 43 ๐Ÿ” 14 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Controversial Danish vaccine research group faces new allegations Researchers say they couldnโ€™t find complete data for 10 trials that together enrolled tens of thousands of children in Guinea-Bissau

Have I ever mentioned how surreal it is to be an Editor-in-Chief of a journal called Vaccine right now?

www.science.org/content/arti...

Itโ€™s pretty wild, at least by typical academic journal editorial office standards.

06.02.2026 06:14 ๐Ÿ‘ 343 ๐Ÿ” 87 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 11 ๐Ÿ“Œ 7
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Die, Dichotomy We have studied 21 435 unique randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR).Of these trials, 7224 (34%) have a continuous (numerical) outcome and 14 211 (...

Die, Dichotomy.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/die-di...
A brief post encouraging you to read the original paper with @erik-van-zwet.bsky.social and @f2harrell.bsky.social .
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

05.02.2026 16:00 ๐Ÿ‘ 17 ๐Ÿ” 8 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Guinea-Bissau suspends a US-funded vaccine trial as African scientists question its motives Officials from the US Department of Health and Human Services, which funded the controversial study, say that it will proceed as planned.

Guinea-Bissau suspends a US-funded vaccine trial as African scientists question its motives www.nature.com/articles/d41...

23.01.2026 09:11 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
course schedule as a table. Available at the link in the post.

course schedule as a table. Available at the link in the post.

I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.

I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

09.12.2025 13:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 659 ๐Ÿ” 235 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 12 ๐Ÿ“Œ 20
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US plan for $1.6m hepatitis B vaccine study in Africa called โ€˜highly unethicalโ€™ Experts decry โ€˜neocolonialistโ€™ Guinea-Bissau study after Trump administration changed advice for US babies

... and another www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

19.12.2025 19:18 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Kennedy-penge til dansk vaccineforskning Stรธtte. Kontroversielle danske forskere har fรฅet millioner fra amerikanske Robert F. Kennedy Jr.s ministerium til et nyt vaccineforsรธg. Anerkendt professor kalder det ยปdybt uetiskยซ.

www.weekendavisen.dk/ideer/kenned...

19.12.2025 13:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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What is actually the emerging evidence about non-specific vaccine effects in randomized trials from the Bandim Health Project?

If you are interested in our critical study of NSE RCT trials from the group mentioned, see www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

19.12.2025 06:56 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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CDC funds controversial hepatitis B vaccine trial in African newborns Scientists question the value of the proposed study, which will investigate a vaccine long known to be efficacious and safe

CDC funds controversial hepatitis B vaccine trial in African newborns | Science | AAAS www.science.org/content/arti...

19.12.2025 06:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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CDC awards $1.6 million for hepatitis B vaccine study, likely to controversial Danish researchers

www.cidrap.umn.edu/childhood-va...

18.12.2025 16:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
# Bayesians are to frequentists as vegetarians are to murderers

I have close friends who do not eat meat, for moral reasons. It's not that they find meat disgusting. In fact, they find it delicious. Instead they regard meat as murder.

And yet we continue to be friends. I myself do not think meat is murder. I regard it in fact as an ordinary and normative part of human society. It's so commonplace. How could it be murder?

This sort of moral incompatibility is commonplace. Vegetarians and vegans have to put up with assholes like me all the time. They are surrounded.

# Bayesians are to frequentists as vegetarians are to murderers I have close friends who do not eat meat, for moral reasons. It's not that they find meat disgusting. In fact, they find it delicious. Instead they regard meat as murder. And yet we continue to be friends. I myself do not think meat is murder. I regard it in fact as an ordinary and normative part of human society. It's so commonplace. How could it be murder? This sort of moral incompatibility is commonplace. Vegetarians and vegans have to put up with assholes like me all the time. They are surrounded.

When I take train journeys, I sometimes write things. Things that I probably shouldn't publish

16.12.2025 17:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 75 ๐Ÿ” 8 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Subscribe to @theatlantic.com
And always read @anneapplebaum.bsky.social

16.12.2025 23:32 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Preregistrations without Code do not Prevent P-Hacking: You can increase your chances for a significant finding in the absence of real effects even with correlations and t test despite having preregistered your hypothesis (e.g., simply changing arguments in the functions).

doi.org/10.31222/osf...

25.11.2025 12:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 9 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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S-Values are much more interpretable than P-values, yet adoption seems near impossible. I wonder what it would take to make the leap? #statssky #episky #rstats #statistics

10.10.2025 15:50 ๐Ÿ‘ 40 ๐Ÿ” 16 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7 ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
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What is actually the emerging evidence about non-specific vaccine effects in randomized trials from the Bandim Health Project?

... and our paper is available here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

13.11.2025 10:41 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Slaget om vaccinernes effekt | Weekendavisen Oplรธsning. Statistikprofessorer hiver med ny analyse tรฆppet vรฆk under kendt vaccinepars mange lodtrรฆkningsforsรธg. De er oversolgte og stรธtter ikke hypotesen om uspecifikke vaccineeffekter, slรฅr profes...

www.weekendavisen.dk/ideer/slaget...

13.11.2025 10:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.

It's *scientific publishing*.

We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...

Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy ๐Ÿ‘‡

12.11.2025 10:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 337 ๐Ÿ” 239 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8 ๐Ÿ“Œ 17
The unequal dividend: gender differences in early-career researchersโ€™ performance gains from international mobility

New paper out rdcu.be/ePj0e

11.11.2025 09:03 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Which Kind of Science Reform What hope is there for science reform, if we can't agree on what to reform? Right now, principles are more important than practices.

How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure youโ€™ll like them, because they donโ€™t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...

09.07.2025 13:40 ๐Ÿ‘ 288 ๐Ÿ” 138 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 16 ๐Ÿ“Œ 49

That's the Ortega hypothesis

06.11.2025 17:32 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Forsker: Nyt udspil lover risikovillig forskning โ€“ men systemet hรฆmmer potentialet - Altinget Regeringens nye forskningsplan lover risikovillighed og langsigtet tรฆnkning, men uden dybere reformer af systemet risikerer man, at systemet ikke kan absorbere forskningsmidlerne effektivt, skriver Je...

Forsker: Nyt udspil lover risikovillig forskning โ€“ men systemet hรฆmmer potentialet - Altinget
www.altinget.dk/forskning/ar...

05.11.2025 11:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Forsker: Debatten om frie og bundne midler er blevet en skyttegravskrig - Altinget Den hรฅrde konkurrence om forskningsmidlerne har skabt en ond cirkel, hvor forskere bruger mere tid pรฅ ansรธgninger end pรฅ forskning. Hvis Danmark vil sikre reel fri forskning, krรฆver det et mere bรฆredy...

Forsker: Debatten om frie og bundne midler er blevet en skyttegravskrig - Altinget
www.altinget.dk/fonde/artike...

03.11.2025 12:03 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Against Publishing: universonline.nl/nieuws/2025/...

Preprints are read, shared, and cited, yet still dismissed as incomplete until blessed by a publisher. I argue that the true measure of scholarship lies in open exchange, not in the industryโ€™s gatekeeping of what counts as published.

14.10.2025 09:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 121 ๐Ÿ” 46 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7 ๐Ÿ“Œ 7
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Did humans evolve to 'protect' women? Ethnography complicates a convenient narrative

Did humans evolve to 'protect' women?
traditionsofconflict.substack.com/p/did-humans...

08.10.2025 07:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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This only happens to you once

26.09.2025 19:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 21649 ๐Ÿ” 4227 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 348 ๐Ÿ“Œ 181

Simonsohn has now posted a blog response to our recent paper about the poor statistical properties of the P curve. @clintin.bsky.social and I are finishing up a less-technical paper that will serve as a response. But I wanted to address a meta-issue *around* this that may clarify some things. 1/x

25.09.2025 10:07 ๐Ÿ‘ 77 ๐Ÿ” 31 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 8
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War of Exhaustion in Ukraine (video) And our responsibility

snyder.substack.com/p/war-of-exh...

12.09.2025 06:50 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Who can stop โ€œbadโ€ research?

Researchers and universities?

Funders before itโ€™s funded?

Funders after itโ€™s funded?

Journals before itโ€™s published?

Journals after itโ€™s published?

Policy makers when using research?

Who can stop โ€œbadโ€ research? Researchers and universities? Funders before itโ€™s funded? Funders after itโ€™s funded? Journals before itโ€™s published? Journals after itโ€™s published? Policy makers when using research?

There is, I believe, only one correct answer to this problem.

11.09.2025 07:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 23 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 9 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2