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Stephan Maurer

@stephanmaurer

Economist by day, historian by night. University of Edinburgh, UPF-BSM, and CEP. Author of "Die Schlacht von Gettysburg": amzn.eu/d/epEJdVz Personal webpage: https://sites.google.com/site/stephanernstmaurer/

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Latest posts by Stephan Maurer @stephanmaurer

Modern painting of the Battle of Pea Ridge by Andy Thomas

Modern painting of the Battle of Pea Ridge by Andy Thomas

U.S. topographical map of the Pea Ridge battlefield.

U.S. topographical map of the Pea Ridge battlefield.

#OTD in 1862 the Battle of Pea Ridge ends with the rout of Confederate general Earl Van Dorn’s army by Gen. Samuel Curtis’ Army of the Southwest, following a two day struggle on the Ozark Plateau in NW Arkansas. The strategic U.S. victory ends rebel hopes of “liberating” Missouri from U.S. control.

08.03.2026 20:13 👍 20 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 2

Fairerweise: Dieses Jahr hatten es dieses Modelle wahrscheinlich schwieriger, weil man ja nun zwischen Erst- und Zweitstimme trennen konnte.

08.03.2026 20:19 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
No drone has hit Dubai Marina. It was
debris from a successful interception
Everyone is ok.

No drone has hit Dubai Marina. It was debris from a successful interception Everyone is ok.

No drone has hit Dubai Marina. It was
debris from a successful interception
Everyone is ok. Stay calm, everyone is safe.

No drone has hit Dubai Marina. It was debris from a successful interception Everyone is ok. Stay calm, everyone is safe.

No drone has hit Dubai Marina. It was
debris from a successful interception

No drone has hit Dubai Marina. It was debris from a successful interception

No drone has hit Dubai Marina. It was
debris from a successful interception.

No drone has hit Dubai Marina. It was debris from a successful interception.

I wonder if a drone has hit Dubai Marina. Or whether it was just
debris from a successful interception.

If only loads of Dubai based accounts, including Isabel Oakeshott's, could tell me.

07.03.2026 23:00 👍 2238 🔁 537 💬 214 📌 91
The picture shows a needle made of bone, it resembles its modern descendants with an eye at one end and a tapered end.

The picture shows a needle made of bone, it resembles its modern descendants with an eye at one end and a tapered end.

Things used in everyday life are the real archaeological treasures!

This sewing needle was made from animal bone some 13,000 years ago.

Some designs simply don't need to be improved, because form and functions were perfectly matched from the start

Length: 5.6 cm

📷 Landesmuseum Württemberg 🏺

06.03.2026 06:34 👍 824 🔁 218 💬 13 📌 18
F-35A: Der Bundesrat verzichtet auf die ursprüngliche Anzahl von 36 Flugzeugen

Swiss F-35 numbers likely "around 30". Government can adjust partly for inflation, but not for the full increased cost, so that the initially projected 36 are not possible within the referendum-approved budget:
www.news.admin.ch/de/newnsb/t7...

06.03.2026 16:53 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Congratulations!

05.03.2026 12:22 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Post image

Matched corporate securities are used to estimate the stock-bond premium in the London stock market over the period 1870–1929, from William N. Goetzmann and K. Geert Rouwenhorst www.nber.org/papers/w34899

04.03.2026 18:02 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
Race to the Bottom: Who's Winning the Missile War in the Middle East? TEL hunting, interceptor availability, and implications for Ukraine

🚀 I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing a first assassment of the missile war over the Gulf region.

In short: The U.S.-Israeli counter-TEL strategy appears to be working.

Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/race-to-th...

Short summary below.

1/5

04.03.2026 16:52 👍 72 🔁 18 💬 5 📌 4
Post image

📢 En KSNET lanzamos #KSNETWorkingPapers

Una serie de trabajos académicos que nacen de los proyectos que desarrollamos y que convierten la práctica en evidencia

¡Y estará todo aquí! 👇
www.ksnet.eu/workingpapers/

Abrimos hilo 🧵

04.03.2026 09:59 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

So if all of these runs out, things of course get tricky, but generally speaking "running out of interceptors" would first be felt on land, where the targets tend to be static.

03.03.2026 16:59 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

- but these should be less of a threat for a (mobile) carrier group. Against cruise missiles and drones, the carrier groups would also have other "lines of defense": Airborne interceptors, ESSM missiles that work at shorter distances, and Gatling gun systems.

03.03.2026 16:59 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Also depends a bit on which interceptors. THAAD is not used by the navy, but in the land-based batteries, so running out of them would not affect the carriers directly. Running out of SM-3 missiles would mean the carrier groups could not intercept ballistic missiles anymore

03.03.2026 16:59 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

"Christodoulides also requested that Berlin deploy a frigate during a phone conversation Monday with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The chancellor responded positively, and a formal decision from Berlin is expected imminently, according to the officials."

03.03.2026 10:28 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Weiß man, ob die Amerikaner dort Centurion/Land Phalanx im Einsatz haben?

03.03.2026 10:01 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
Increased ERC funding for top global researchers moving to Europe now confirmed The European Research Council (ERC) decision to increase its support for leading researchers moving to Europe has today been formally adopted. On top of its standard grants, the ERC offers additional ...

Come to Europe, friends!
The European Research Council (ERC) has just confirmed increased ERC funding for top global researchers moving to Europe. Drop me an email if you want to know more.

erc.europa.eu/news-events/...

16.05.2025 11:37 👍 15 🔁 9 💬 0 📌 0
Elon Musk * X @elonmusk
X.com
Anthropic hates Western Civilization

Elon Musk * X @elonmusk X.com Anthropic hates Western Civilization

In case you need to pick a side.

28.02.2026 12:09 👍 288 🔁 57 💬 17 📌 4
Preview
OpenAI Reaches A.I. Agreement With Defense Dept. After Anthropic Clash

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/t...

Articulating any kind of principal ethical concern, as Anthropic’s Dario Amodei did with reference to using his AI products for large scale surveillance of US citizens oder in autonomous drones, makes you a “left wing nut job” and lose your Pentagon contract

28.02.2026 07:32 👍 62 🔁 15 💬 3 📌 4
The air quality effects of Uber Publication date: May 2026 Source: Journal of Urban Economics, Volume 153 Author(s): Luis Sarmiento, Yeong Jae Kim

New in JUE: The air quality effects of Uber, by Luis Sarmiento, Yeong Jae Kim. #econsky #urbanecon

27.02.2026 20:15 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1

New survey article on social mobility in Western countries by Nybom, Rodríguez Mora & Salvanes:
www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/u...

27.02.2026 19:39 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models We propose a novel framework for analyzing linear asset pricing models: simple, robust, and applicable to high-dimensional problems. For a (potentially misspecified) stand-alone model, it provides re....

2 million is soooo 1997
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

26.02.2026 17:39 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Preview
Nachfolge von Christine Lagarde: Europas Postenpoker um die EZB Der Kampf um die Nachfolge von EZB-Präsidentin Christine Lagarde ist entbrannt. Wir zeigen, wer dabei alles ein Wort mitzureden hat.

Empfehlenswerter F.A.Z. Beitrag: Europas Poker um die EZB-Präsidentschaft
www.faz.net/aktuell/fina...

25.02.2026 09:28 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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🗞️ Dilluns es va presentar el número 109 de la revista Nota d'Economia, i les nostres sòcies @elenacostas.bsky.social i @mariasanchezvidal.bsky.social hi col·laboren amb un article:

📝 Els salaris i la desigualtat d'ingressos

Llegeix-lo aquí! 👇

🔗 economia.gencat.cat/ca/ambits-ac...

25.02.2026 09:16 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-mq...

24.02.2026 19:22 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

@alxluck.bsky.social ?

24.02.2026 15:27 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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As it is en vogue to describe Germany’s political landscape as resembling “Weimar conditions,” its worth taking a closer look at the era’s high levels of political fragility. In just 14 years of existence, the Weimar Republic saw 20 different governments. On average, a cabinet lasted only 244 days.

23.02.2026 06:50 👍 82 🔁 28 💬 4 📌 2

Nobody from McKinsey this time ;-)

22.02.2026 20:25 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
News item: "new SpongeBob movie streaming now." Photo of a live action blond lady in winter clothes with a sniper rifle in a snowy tundra looking bleak.

News item: "new SpongeBob movie streaming now." Photo of a live action blond lady in winter clothes with a sniper rifle in a snowy tundra looking bleak.

Wow that franchise took a dark turn

22.02.2026 02:56 👍 6274 🔁 1062 💬 133 📌 117

In a famous German comedy from the 80s, there is a scene where Scrabble players discuss whether "Schwanzhund" ("taildog") is a permissible word.
"What is a taildog?"
"A dog with a tail"
"Every dog has a tail"
"You also wouldn't say tailcow"
"There are dogs without a tail"
"Not in my house."

21.02.2026 16:25 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
a close up of a pikachu with a surprised look on its face . ALT: a close up of a pikachu with a surprised look on its face .

Step 1: Become increasingly unreliable (to the point of outright dangerous), even to your closest allies
Step 2: Be surprised that your closest allies don't see you as a reliable supplier for weapons systems anymore

21.02.2026 16:20 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
Pentagon aggressively lobbies EU against Buy European weapons push In previously unreported remarks, the U.S. administration warned Brussels that it will retaliate if Europeans “strong-arm American companies out of the market.”

www.politico.eu/article/wash...

"While the Trump administration has repeatedly told Europeans that it wants them to shoulder the bulk of the continent's conventional defense, the U.S. doesn't want that to come at the expense of American defense firms."

21.02.2026 16:11 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0