I finally gave in and moved some money in expectation of the iran situation going on for a while, and since I am almost always wrong about these things that means it should be wrapped up shortly. Good news for the people of the middle east, happy to do my bit. (This is not investment advice.)
11.03.2026 14:07
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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged on Tuesday that the Pentagon had not expected Iran’s ferocious response against its neighbors. But he insisted Iran’s actions were backfiring.
“I can’t say that we anticipated necessarily that’s exactly how they would react, but we knew it was a possibility,” Mr. Hegseth said at the Pentagon news conference with General Caine. “I think it was a demonstration of the desperation of the regime.”
If Iraq decides to attack Iran's Kharg Island facility, Iran could reciprocate by attacks on neutral shipping or on the facilities of the non-belligerebt Gulf states, since Iran's goal would be to cut off Iraq's economic support.
Three options Iran might choose to pursue in attempting to carry out her threats are.
A. Mining the Strait of Hormuz or the waters of the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman.
B. Mining coupled with interdiction of neutral shipping.
C. Mining and interdictuon of neutral shipping coupled with attacks on the key facilities of the non-belligerent Gulf nations.
Hegseth: We didn't anticipate that Iran would respond this way.
US Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1984: We anticipated that Iran would respond in this way.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/u...
www.cia.gov/readingroom/...
11.03.2026 05:45
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Thank you for this thread. I sort of knew the gist but this made it much more clear.
11.03.2026 05:00
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That might be better at this point tbh
11.03.2026 04:46
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11.03.2026 01:02
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I will be perfectly honest with you, I would really like to be in the position of rooting FOR the USN doing clever and courageous operations to restore global commerce of energy and material. I would rather we not be the bad guys against fucking Iran.
10.03.2026 18:40
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So... we haven't won the war yet?
10.03.2026 18:28
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I was assured that Iran no longer has working air defenses. Just saying.
10.03.2026 17:54
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It’s sort of weird that people just say the words “sharia law” to signal they’re dumb af
10.03.2026 15:56
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Class affinity is a hell of a drug.
10.03.2026 15:04
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*With a bleeding hole in my hand* “Look, in my defense the falling knife was really shiny, alright?”
09.03.2026 13:42
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See also childcare.
09.03.2026 05:48
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I know this isn’t relevant to your point but a caviar and truffle pizza sounds incredibly disgusting.
09.03.2026 05:42
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I could be mistaken but my sense is that for all the weird dynamics between them, if Trump tells Bibi to sit the fuck down for a few months, he’ll probably oblige.
09.03.2026 05:39
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To be fair, those younger extremist mullahs would probably really like to sell some oil. So if they can humiliate Trump, take talking about nuclear issues off the table for a while, and otherwise get back to the February 27 status quo ante, that would probably count as win for them.
09.03.2026 05:34
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It’s a bit like being a communist spy in the Cold War and not being able to shake the habit of calling people comrade
09.03.2026 05:24
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It’s amazing they can’t shake that tell
09.03.2026 04:54
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Republicans in Congress could end all of this tomorrow
08.03.2026 23:50
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Maybe the model is feeling shy
08.03.2026 15:52
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We’re bombing energy facilities now so plan may have changed again
07.03.2026 22:54
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I don’t know what he said but I think he should learn to do at least one kind of performance himself before picking on others.
07.03.2026 15:54
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I’m a hell no on funding for Trump’s illegal, disastrous Iran War.
06.03.2026 02:31
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D&D 5th Edition generally and Critical Role specifically.
07.03.2026 05:27
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I mean he can make one up and declare it satisfied at any point he wants to try to move on.
07.03.2026 05:20
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That was such a fun application
07.03.2026 04:50
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So the strike on fx. the Iranian politicians under house arrest was at best an attempted crime?
07.03.2026 04:37
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That was my intended sense.
07.03.2026 04:35
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Question… we (our side) has been going after current and past political figures. Is there any reason it would be over the line for Iran to reciprocate that? (Setting aside it would be a poor use of resources.)
07.03.2026 04:33
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