www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
09.03.2026 15:01
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US proposed FAR rule (Feb 2026) would ban federal procurement of products/services with chips from SMIC, CXMT & YMTC starting Dec 23, 2027. Raises costs for US gov/tech firms, curbs Chinese memory expansion, boosts Samsung/SK hynix position. Security > short-term savings. #TechPolicy #Semiconductors
US Navy in the Persian Gulf repeats the USAAF mistake of 1943: pilots chased kills, leaving bombers unprotected. Today, the hunt for Iran's large ships is costing the world record-high oil prices #RiskFirst #MaritimeStrategy
Brent jumps ~25% to 116 as Hormuz is blocked.
Past oil shocks were brutal. 1973 +300%. 1979 +150%. Both led to recession.
Now the Fed is trapped.
Easing fuels inflation.
Tightening kills growth.
Stagflation risk is rising.
#EnergyMarkets #OilShock #RiskFirst
Brent surges +20%+ d/d to ~110–115+, Hormuz shut, flows near zero.Fed trapped: cuts fuel inflation rebound → stagflation accelerator; hikes deepen slowdown → recession trigger.Stagflation risk >> plain recession. #OilShock #RiskFirst
Japan, France, and Canada quietly building their own path on critical minerals away from US-led bloc. Buyers’ club, import quotas on Chinese REE, subsidies for non-China mines. Allied de-risking or early cracks in the West? China watches and smiles for now. #RiskFirst #CriticalSupply
Analysts are overly relying on a quick rebound in demand, ignoring that household savings are near record lows after years of high inflation and consumer credit is expensive. Low liquidity increases downside risk. #RiskFirst #ConsumerCredit
Buddy?😕AI slop? Yeah, sometimes I throw them in because they look nice, but the data is rock solid.
Sources indicate the data channel, not an academic citation format. Oil is now above 100. Brent around 108. The key question is transmission. Which dataset would you watch first.
US rolls out $20B war-risk reinsurance for Hormuz tankers.Covers hull, cargo, machinery, ships and oil protected.But sailors? Still facing missiles, drones, and death in a live war zone.Ropa flows, lives don't count? #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis
AI is quietly becoming the largest energy story of the decade. Data centers are set to out-consume medium-size countries before policy or grids catch up. The black swan is already on the wires.
#EnergyCrisis #BlackSwan
6/6 – 2022 Russia-Ukraine War
💥 Brent jumped from $97 to $117. Sanctions and supply disruptions reshaped markets instantly. Liquidity matters as much as barrels. #Energy #RiskFirst
5/6 – 1990 Iraq-Kuwait Invasion
🚨 9% of world oil offline. Price spiked from $28 to $40. Lesson: short-term shocks are regime signals, not just market noise. #Geopolitics #Energy
4/6 – 1979 Iran Revolution
🔥 Oil nearly tripled. Supply uncertainty hit global growth. Political risk translates directly into energy risk. #Macro #Oil
3/6 – 1973 OPEC Embargo
⚡ Arab-Israeli War: OPEC embargo caused oil to jump from $3 to $12 per barrel. Economy-wide shortages followed. Regime risk, not just price, defines impact. #OPEC #RiskFirst
2/6 – US Civil War
🛢 19th century US Civil War: first oil shock. Demand for kerosene and fuels surged. Supply constraints pushed prices sharply. Lessons: even small disruptions matter. #Energy #History
🧵 Thread 1/6 – Oil Shocks Through History
🌍 Oil shocks are not random. This thread covers 6 historical crises
⚔️ US Civil War
🛢️ 1973 OPEC embargo
🏛️ 1979 Iran Revolution
🌐 1990 Iraq-Kuwait invasion
💹 2008 global squeeze
🇷🇺🇺🇦 2022 Russia-Ukraine war
#Macro #Risk
Is the logistics infrastructure prepared for this?
Ships waiting there will soon start facing shortages of fresh water and provisions.
#Hormuz #Logistics #SupplyChains
US–Iran conflict: scenarios mapped.
Four paths from minimal clashes to wider war.
$10k drones punched holes in $500M sensors. Cheap tech breaks expensive systems. Lasers, microwaves, cheap interceptors, mobile radars coming. Could mass drone warfare rewrite doctrine?
www.cnn.com/2026/03/05/m...
USA → India: "Stop buying Russian oil or face sanctions! 😅🛢️"
A month later → USA: "Fine, take the Russian oil, Hormuz is blocked and prices are soaring 😬🚢📈
#OilPolitics
#RussiaOil
China holding talks with Iran to keep oil and LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz is not about friendship. It is about energy security.
The largest oil importer in the world cannot risk disruption in one of the most critical energy. #EnergySecurity #RiskFirst #ChinaIran #OilCrisis #Hormuz
💥 Doomsday plane E‑6B Mercury is now over the Middle East. Mission unknown. Strategic signal or nuclear readiness? #DoomsdayPlane #Geopolitics
💥 Ormuz blockade threatens helium supply, critical for chip production. Warning from South Korean official Kim Jung Be after talks with Samsung Electronics. Track helium logistics and stockpiles closely #RiskFirst #Macro
📊 4/4
Potential deficits can spill over to the macro level.
Lithium: deficit ~80k tons in 2026.
Copper: possible deficit ~30% by 2035.
#Commodities #Macro 📊
🌏 3/4
REE export controls and restrictions on military applications show that supply chains can be used as a geopolitical tool.
Escalation of US–China tensions could create bottlenecks for military technology and EV supply.
#Geopolitics #China 🌏
🔗 2/4
The most sensitive point in the system remains downstream.
Deficits in refined REEs and battery components could raise prices in the EV and energy storage sectors by 40–50% in the short term.
#SupplyChains #Risk 🔗
⚙️ Thread 1/4
Critical minerals are no longer just about mining.
The real bottleneck in global supply chains is processing and refining, where control over supply is highly concentrated.
#CriticalMinerals #Macro ⚙️
6/6
🧭 Conclusion: Turkey–US tensions represent a process risk rather than a sensational headline. What matters are mechanical signals such as rhetoric, alliances, military moves, and market reactions. Markets respond to uncertainty, not to unrealistic scenarios. 🌫
#MacroProcess #RiskFirst
5/6
🛢 Energy as a secondary effect: Oil usually reacts to regional tension rather than physical blockades. Volatility in Brent can increase when geopolitical stress rises. Signals often come from developments involving Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Russia. 🌍
#Oil #EnergyRisk