Pierre Lestru

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Updated regularly throughout the season.

📊 Conference League QF Odds Movers after R16 1st Leg

Up 📈:
Shakhtar : 56% → 95%
AZ Alkmaar: 37% → 64%
AEK Athens: 83% → 100%
AEK Larnaca: 8% → 25%
Rayo Vallecano: 86% → 99%

Down 📉:
Lech Poznań: 44% → 5%
Sparta Prague: 63% → 36%
NK Celje: 17% → 0%
Crystal Palace: 92% → 75%
Samsunspor: 14% → 1%

📊 UEFA Conference League to advance to QF after R16 1st leg

AEK Athens >99–<1 NK Celje
Rayo Vallecano 99–1 Samsunspor
Strasbourg 96–4 Rijeka
Shakhtar Donetsk 95–5 Lech Poznań
Mainz 05 85–15 Sigma Olomouc
Fiorentina 79–21 Raków
Crystal Palace 75–25 AEK Larnaca FC
AZ Alkmaar 64–36 Sparta Prague

📊 Conference League Title Race Odds Movers after R16 1st Leg

Up 📈:
Fiorentina: 5% → 8%
Shakhtar Donetsk: 1% → 4%
Strasbourg: 18% → 21%
Rayo Vallecano: 9% → 11%
AEK Athens: 6% → 8%

Down 📉:
Crystal Palace: 44% → 34%
Mainz 05: 9% → 8%
Sparta Prague: 4% → 2%

🏆 UEFA Conference League title odds

Crystal Palace — 34%
Strasbourg — 21%
Rayo Vallecano — 11%
Fiorentina — 8%
AEK Athens — 8%
Mainz 05 — 8%
Shakhtar Donetsk — 4%
Sparta Prague — 2%
AZ Alkmaar — 2%
AEK Larnaca FC — 1%

📊 Europa League QF Qualification Odds Movers after R16 1st leg

Up 📈:
Ferencváros: 21% → 75%
Midtjylland: 34% → 76%
Porto: 53% → 83%
Panathinaikos: 21% → 51%
Genk: 33% → 61%

Down 📉:
Braga: 79% → 25%
Nottingham Forest: 66% → 24%
Stuttgart: 47% → 17%
Real Betis: 79% → 49%
Freiburg: 67% → 39%

📊 Europa League Title Race Odds Movers after R16 1st leg

Up 📈:
Aston Villa: 30% → 38%
Porto: 7% → 12%
Lyon: 9% → 12%
Midtjylland: 2% → 3%
Panathinaikos: 0% → 2%

Down 📉:
Nottingham Forest: 8% → 2%
Real Betis: 12% → 7%
Braga: 6% → 2%
Stuttgart: 5% → 2%
Lille: 2% → 1%

📊 Europa League to advance to QF after 1st leg

Aston Villa 92–8 Lille
Porto 83–17 Stuttgart
Midtjylland 76–24 Nottingham Forest
Ferencváros 75–25 Braga
Roma 69–31 Bologna
Lyon 61–39 Celta Vigo
Genk 61–39 Freiburg
Panathinaikos 51–49 Real Betis

🏆 UEFA Europa League title odds

Aston Villa — 38%
Porto — 12%
Lyon — 12%
Roma — 8%
Real Betis — 7%
Celta Vigo — 6%
Midtjylland — 3%
Freiburg — 3%
Nottingham Forest — 2%
Stuttgart — 2%

Conference League — odds to advance to the quarterfinals:

Crystal Palace 92-8 AEK Larnaca FC
Strasbourg 90-10 Rijeka
Mainz 05 89-11 Sigma Olomouc
Rayo Vallecano 86-14 Samsunspor
AEK Athens 83-17 NK Celje
Fiorentina 71-29 Raków
Sparta Prague 63-37 AZ Alkmaar
Shakhtar Donetsk 56-44 Lech Poznań

UEFA Europa League — odds to advance to the quarterfinals:

Aston Villa 80-20 Lille
Braga 79-21 Ferencváros
Real Betis 79-21 Panathinaikos
Roma 69-31 Bologna
Freiburg 67-33 Genk
Nottingham Forest 66-34 Midtjylland
Lyon 56-44 Celta Vigo
Porto 53-47 Stuttgart

📊 Champions League Title Race Odds Movers after R16 1st leg

Up 📈:
Paris Saint-Germain: 4% → 12%
Bayern Munich: 13% → 20%
Real Madrid: 2% → 7%
Atlético Madrid: 1% → 4%
Barcelona: 8% → 10%

Down 📉:
Manchester City: 10% → 1%
Liverpool: 9% → 5%
Chelsea: 4% → 0%
Arsenal: 41% → 39%
Sporting CP: 2% → 0%

📊 Champions League QF Qualification Odds Movers after R16 1st leg:

Up 📈:
Bodø/Glimt: 28% → 93%
Real Madrid: 35% → 95%
Paris SG: 48% → 97%
Atlético Madrid: 60% → 98%
Galatasaray: 13% → 43%

Down 📉:
Sporting CP: 72% → 7%
Man City: 65% → 5%
Chelsea: 52% → 3%
Tottenham: 40% → 2%
Liverpool: 87% → 57%

🏆 UEFA Champions League title odds after Round of 16 1st leg

Arsenal — 39%
Bayern Munich — 20%
Paris Saint-Germain — 12%
Barcelona — 10%
Real Madrid — 7%
Liverpool — 5%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Newcastle United — 2%
Bodø/Glimt — 1%
Leverkusen — 1%

UCL Round of 16 —updated odds to advance to the quarterfinals after 1st leg

Bayern Munich 99.9-0.1 Atalanta
Atlético Madrid 98-2 Tottenham
Paris SG 97-3 Chelsea
Real Madrid 95-5 Man City
Bodø/Glimt 93-7 Sporting CP
Arsenal 85-15 Leverkusen
Barcelona 68-32 Newcastle
Liverpool 57-43 Galatasaray

📉 Serie A (Italy) direct relegation odds

Pisa — 99%
Hellas Verona — 98%
Cremonese — 51%
Fiorentina — 22%
Lecce — 21%
Cagliari — 5%
Genoa — 2%
Torino — 1%

📉 La Liga (Spain) direct relegation odds

Oviedo — 97%
Levante — 76%
Elche — 45%
Alavés — 35%
Mallorca — 31%
Sevilla — 7%
Girona — 5%
Rayo Vallecano — 2%
Valencia — 2%

📉 Bundesliga (Germany) direct relegation odds

Heidenheim — 99%
Wolfsburg — 66%
St Pauli — 12%
Köln — 10%
Werder Bremen — 4%
Mainz 05 — 4%
Gladbach — 3%
Union Berlin — 1%

📉 Ligue 1 (France) direct relegation odds

Metz — 94%
Nantes — 79%
Auxerre — 23%
Nice — 4%

📉 Premier League (England) direct relegation odds

Wolves — >99%
Burnley — 99%
West Ham United — 50%
Nottingham Forest — 24%
Tottenham Hotspur — 18%
Leeds United — 8%

🏆 UEFA Champions League title odds

Arsenal — 41%
Bayern Munich — 13%
Manchester City — 10%
Liverpool — 10%
Barcelona — 8%
Chelsea — 5%
Paris Saint-Germain — 4%
Real Madrid — 2%
Newcastle United — 2%
Sporting CP — 2%

🏆 Champions League — Round of 16 odds to advance

Arsenal 89–11 Leverkusen
Liverpool 87–13 Galatasaray
Bayern Munich 83–17 Atalanta
Sporting CP 72–28 Bodø/Glimt
Man City 65–35 Real Madrid
Barcelona 65–35 Newcastle
Atlético Madrid 60–40 Tottenham
Chelsea 52–48 Paris SG

📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers

Up 📈:
Lens: 2% → 9%
Milan: 2% → 5%

Down 📉:
Paris Saint-Germain: 98% → 91%
Inter: 97% → 93%

Despite their losses this week, Inter still highly favoured because of a solid 7-point lead and PSG still a much superior team than Lens according to Elo ratings

🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds

Paris Saint-Germain — 91%
Lens — 9%

🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds

Inter — 93%
Milan — 5%
Napoli — 1%
Others — <1%

🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds

Barcelona — 78%
Real Madrid — 22%

🏆 Big Five league title snapshot going into this weekend

England — Arsenal 95%, Man City 5%
Spain — Barcelona 78%, Real Madrid 22%
Italy — Inter 97%, Milan 2%, Others <1%
France — PSG 98%, Lens 2%
Germany — Bayern >99%, Dortmund <1%

📉 Premier League (England) direct relegation odds

Wolves — >99%
Burnley — 99%
West Ham United — 51%
Nottingham Forest — 26%
Tottenham Hotspur — 17%

So it doesn’t feel like the kind of superiority City (2017–19) or Chelsea (2004–06) showed over the rest of the EPL. What’s missed is how strong the Premier League is now compared to the rest of Europe and that's what gets reflected in a stat-measure like Elo rating

I think people are focused on two things:

they’re tracking toward ~84 points after an era where Pep Guardiola’s City made 90+ point champions feel normal, and

they don’t dominate games stylistically, more efficiency through defending and set pieces