Walmart in particular is an outstanding short here. They can barely grow FCF, their customers are not going to have a particularly easy time with their household income, and they compete with a bottomless pit of capex (amzn).
This one really hit hard, great work
Yeah cost cuts on the R1 thus far have been really impressive!
Not your point but how is RIVN going to get to a positive gross profit with these things?
Have you got an opinion on Hercules? Read the Hunterbrook piece and got interested in a short: hntrbrk.com/hercules-cap...
Envious!
I was going into it as a hate listen on a long ride. Not nearly as interesting as I had hoped. He’s very defensive, yet with very little in the way of facts to back it up.
I love how the 40x multiple for other firms in the sector is seen as a bar for normalcy. Good luck with that! RKLB not exactly overflowing with profit
it’s more like the interest payments on that debt (~3.5b) will absorb most of the free cash flow that both companies currently produce as standalones (~5b), so to make it work for investors they will need to juice that number by canceling projects, layoffs, or spinoffs - and no margin to fuck up
An interaction where Mike Silva, confronted with a fact about Platner that contradicted his earlier statement, declined to respond.
This u?
The fact that the market is getting whipped around by Citrini Thought is yet another nail in the EMH.
Does the fact that you’re directly contributing to the economic well-being of the leading purveyor of child exploitation enter into the calculus at all? Or is your career just the only value consideration for you, full stop?
Next year is going to be great for you!
Priced in! Markets are lucky it didn’t go the other way.
20x for something that basically can’t go down, and is growing at least MSD in perpetuity? That’s a nice price. Throw in total reg capture and 401k catalyst, I think BX is a buy from here.
Yeah this would explain how overall growth is stuck in MSD
One of these is not like the other! $MSFT is looking like a steal here.
I wonder where SpaceX is on this chart, and whether that explains their puzzling reported positive EBITDA.
Re: 1: really hard to disentangle the launch business from Starlink as customer when they are 80% of their business and there are big scale advantages to launch. Also, could be true now but RKLB and Blue Origin are also allergic to pricing for profit and launching new larger vehicles
The reported figure excluded D&A altogether, and probably excludes stock-based comp, so who knows what an actual earnings number would be.
Easy buy from these levels with a long-term view, I think. Ironically one of the great future AI beneficiaries
Yes, true artistic expression is when you closet index and free ride off your clients’ credulity.
Did you mean your 1.25% fee for market-trailing returns?
And it gets more tangled every day. UnitedHealth owns the second largest surgery center group, for instance.
If you’re looking for value here though, check out Cigna - CEO isn’t great but they don’t deal with government insurance. Their specialty pharmacy business is gold
Also the redeterminations and ACA are linked, because people who lose Medicaid then go on to the exchange, and change the average profile of the exchange insured person also. It’s a cascading effect basically, so Molina is targeting a 50% reduction in exchange members to fix that issue (price hike)
Yes they also said this - the original point was about the MLR, so the redetermination is what’s driving a chunk of that (and the underperformance earlier this year also), though certainly not all as you say.
I mean it’s health insurance, bad behavior is their whole deal. The love scams! And its a great time to own a scammer. www.wsj.com/health/healt...
Oh sure there’s all kinds of stuff. Burry noticed that they refinanced a big chunk of debt right before the much lower than expected guidance, for example. CNC sunk their guidance earlier in the year and was only down 6% on the day as a result.
It's easiest to see on a graph - it's a very normal cycle. If you were just drawing lines on a chart, you would predict several years of $2.5-$3 billion FCF from like 2027-2031, which would, I don't know, quintuple the MC or something. That's the idea anyway!
