Brendan Duke

Big tax cut!

New data from @budgetlab.bsky.social peg this tax cut as costing $1 trillion, almost exclusively benefiting the top 10% and overwhelmingly benefiting the top 1%.

All without Congress.

budgetlab.yale.edu/research/ind...

Great thread from Chuck

The proposal’s goal is a good one: how do policymakers make it easier for families to pay the rent, put food on the table, afford child care, & see a doctor? A vigorous debate that goes beyond tax cuts will help us find workable solutions.

Senator Van Hollen is a long-time supporter of expanding the CTC & EITC, but just stacking those proposals on top of this one would be very expensive. Better to develop a unified approach to affordability that focuses revenues where it is needed most

We need to prioritize using $ to help families w/ the largest affordability challenges, e.g. families hard hit by Admin’s tariffs, health & food cuts, & left out of recent CTC expansion

The tax cut is paid for w/ an excellent revenue-raiser: a surtax on millionaires, who got huge Bush/Trump tax cuts, that raises $1.5T over 10 yrs. A key issue here is opportunity cost - is this the best use of revenue from this offset?

While it uses the MIT Living Wage Calculator, which shows the income needed for different fam sizes, the proposal itself doesn’t seem to make adjustments for # of kids.

Problem 2: Since it relies on the standard deduction, the proposal likely gives more to many ppl w/out kids than to families w/ kids, even though raising kids is expensive.

Problem 1: Ppl w/ larger affordability challenges will likely get less (or nothing): For example, a low paid worker making well below the $46,000 affordability threshold will get far less than the person w/ income at the threshold (who faces less challenging affordability issues)

How it would work: it seems to effectively triple the standard deduction to levels tied to the MIT calculator - $46,000 for singles and $92,000 for married couples compared to current $16,100/$32,200. (The boost may be phased out at high incomes.)

The proposal keys off of the MIT Living Wage Calculator, with the goal of helping people get closer to affording a basic budget, e.g. rent, food, doctor etc. paid for w/ millionaire surtax. Good goal! But the approach misses the mark for some families even while it costs a lot.

Democrat’s plan would eliminate federal income taxes for half of U.S. workers Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s tax relief plan could benefit tens of millions of middle-class workers, with a focus on those making at or below a living wage.

The latest Democratic affordability proposal–this one from Senator Van Hollen– was previewed in the Washington Post by @jeffstein.bsky.social this morning. While we don’t have all the details, it seems like a case of good intentions but some problematic results www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

It looks like @brendanvduke.bsky.social can add "noted WSJ Wife Guy" to his bio.

☠️☠️☠️

Me talking about the instability of the Trump tariff regime in the New York Times.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/u...

Trump's plan:

This remains true: if the tariffs are such a political and economic winner, Congress could legislate them and pass them immediately.

That this is never discussed or even considered tells you a lot.

Literally the only good thing to happen to the CBO customs revenue analyst over the last twelve months is that SCOTUS waited until after the new CBO Budget and Economic Outlook to strike down the tariffs.

Me collecting FY2025 tariffs and reducing the FY2025 deficit: ha ha hell yeah.

Me refunding FY2025 tariffs and increasing the FY2026 deficit: What the hell.

Build Back Better raises $2.1T and Trump's tariffs raise $2.6T.

Fun discovery: on an apples-to-apples basis, Trump's tariff taxes are larger than the tax increases in the House-passed version of Build Back Better in 2021.

Of course, the distribution of Biden's tax hikes on corporations and millionaires are different from Trump's tariffs.

Build Back Better raises $2.1T and Trump's tariffs raise $2.6T.

Fun discovery: on an apples-to-apples basis, Trump's tariff taxes are larger than the tax increases in the House-passed version of Build Back Better in 2021.

Of course, the distribution of Biden's tax hikes on corporations and millionaires are different from Trump's tariffs.

Thread. A year after Congress passed a massive reconciliation bill, budget expert @brendanvduke.bsky.social posts some notes from CBO’s budget and economic outlook. In brief: higher deficits, tariffs paid mostly by consumers, little impact on economic growth.

Incredible.

Today’s CBO report says US consumers pay 95% of tariffs. 🤡

@brendanvduke.bsky.social
www.cbo.gov/system/files...

My updated list of estimates of the cost of the GOP megabill including its effects on growth including today's CBO estimate.

Contrary to claims the law will produce such stupendous economic growth it will pay for itself, all independent estimates find it will cost trillions.

The money for immigration enforcement in the GOP megabill (including ICE and CBP) reduces the size of the workforce because of more immigration enforcement.

That reduction in the number of workers is larger than the tiny increase in workers from Medicaid/SNAP requirements.