Joao Jeronimo

joaojeronimohw.github.io/jekyll/updat...

Excited to share my latest blog post, where I take a deep dive into how the @scotfisccomm.bsky.social (SFC) approaches economic forecasting - and suggest two methodological extensions that could enhance their work.

This is one of my first hands-on projects using machine learning for economic forecasting, so I’m especially keen to hear feedback and suggestions for improvement from those with more experience in this area.

#MachineLearning #EconomicForecasting #PublicPolicy #DataScience #ScottishFiscalCommission

2. Applying machine learning methods: I benchmarked traditional econometric models (like ARIMA) against modern machine learning approaches (LSTM and hybrid ARIMA-LSTM models) using simulated macroeconomic data. The results show that machine learning can significantly reduce forecasting errors.

1. Distinguishing new hire wages from average wages: New hire wages are much more responsive to economic cycles and can provide earlier signals of turning points than average wages, which are often dampened by contract rigidities.

I focused on the wage forecasting component of their model and proposed two key enhancements:

The SFC plays an important role in shaping Scotland’s fiscal policy through its independent economic forecasts. Their current methodology, while robust, could be further refined to better capture real-time labor market dynamics and improve short-term forecasting accuracy.

joaojeronimohw.github.io/jekyll/updat...

Excited to share my latest blog post, where I take a deep dive into how the @scotfisccomm.bsky.social (SFC) approaches economic forecasting - and suggest two methodological extensions that could enhance their work.

New English language and UK citizenship requirements for migrants as part of government crackdown Sir Keir Starmer will say settling in the UK is a "privilege, not a right" as he lays out new rules to bring down net migration - but experts have questioned how effective they will be.

A 'contributions-based' citizenship model is not a citizenship model, but a form of selective club membership.

news.sky.com/story/new-en...

February 1, 2025 Throughout now-president Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, it was clear that his support was coming from three very different factions whose only shared ideology was a determination to destroy the federal...

February 1, 2025

Birthright Citizenship Under the 14th Amendment Defined America. Will Trump End It? (Gift Article) The 14th Amendment made the U.S. a place where every child was born equal under the law. That might be about to change.

Not exactly glad to be part of this conversation on the coming assault on birthright citizenship, but always good to remind @nytimes.com readers that the 🇺🇸 is, in fact, not the only country in the 🌎 where children born on its territory have a right to citizenship

🧵

www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/m...

Repost #EconSky

I first read Goodman-Bacon's paper on #DiD and understanding the underlying 2x2 DiDs associated with every Two Way Fixed Effects, it really blew my mind. I found it tough to navigate, but i went step by step. I enclose below the Stata code, which does a simple GB DiD step by step.

GitHub star history

Intro page showing version number

I just released Coding for Economists v1.0.2. This update fixes a lot of minor issues and switches to Astral's uv as the recommended package manager. We have some new contributors too. And, big news, CfE also hit 750 stars! ⭐⭐⭐

aeturrell.github.io/coding-for-e...

Worker Beliefs About Outside Options | Microeconomic Insights Firms differ substantially in the wages they pay to similar workers. Standard models of the labor market assume that workers have accurate beliefs about the differences in wages across firms, includin...

“workers believe their outside option is much closer to their current wage than it actually is” |
Worker Beliefs About Outside Options | Simon Jäger, Christopher Roth, Nina Roussille, Benjamin Schoefer | Microeconomic Insights |
microeconomicinsights.org/worker-belie...