it is, no doubt!
10.03.2026 07:41
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it is, no doubt!
I guess my questions for future research would be: Do we see migration differences across the skill/salary visa-threshold changes? Would the NHS not have plugged the nurse gap in the same way if not for new visa rules? How easier did it get for a UK employer to hire a non-EU migrant after 2021?
COVID impacted comparator countries, but they didn't get the Brexit x COVID mass outflow. I don't doubt the overal Brexit counterfactual numbers. I'm just not sure about the contribution of visa rules vs. outflow-generated demand factors.
Great stuff! I'm wondering how much of the non-EU increase is due to increased employer demand after COVID, rather than to "new rules". When COVID happened after Brexit, many migrants just went back home and never came back. Employers needed workers for the rebound and mostly non-EU applied.
Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations — or promises — articulated at the time. This paper provides an overview and interpretation of developments since 2016, focusing on three interrelated themes. First, it describes trends in migration flows and stocks, highlighting the sharp fall in EU migration, the compensating increase in non-EU migration, and the role of both policy and economic developments in driving these trends. Second, it examines the economic and labour market impacts of these changes over 201625. Third, it analyses the post-Brexit policy framework and, in particular, the Labour government’s approach since 2024. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications for future UK migration policy and for the wider political economy of Brexit.
My new @iza.org/LISER paper
Control Without Credibility: Immigration to the UK Since the Brexit Referendum
docs.iza.org/dp18419.pdf
Or move all games to co-hosts Mexico and Canada.
#GrandCorruption in the US
One of my favourite events in the conference season: young scholars sharing their superexciting research with us. Please, do apply and visit us at @kingsqpe.bsky.social
Just a week left to apply!
Thrilled to share our new paper!
A simple info app improved immigrant integration in Portugal AND transmitted democratic norms to Cape Verde with political spillovers strongest in areas with lower far-right support.
With the amazing @catiabatista.bsky.social, #LaraBohnet & @gazeaud.bsky.social
🆕 How new export opportunities created good jobs in Vietnam
Today on VoxDev, Brian McCaig (Wilfrid Laurier University), Nina Pavcnik (Dartmouth Economics) & Woan Foong Wong (University of Oregon) discuss the far-reaching effects of the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement: https://ow.ly/YRZJ50Ymjw2
#RefugeeAllStars
Nice!
Ever eating BBQ (Taino)? With "Heinz" ketchup? How about peanut butter (Aztec,Inca)?
To establish new trade links, movement of people is essential first step: Air Canada sees surging overseas corporate travel following U.S. trade tensions | Reuters share.google/DqFviwEaXvcy...
Join us in London in May for our 6th Early Career Workshop!
Details below:
📢 Call for papers!
We are organizing the 6th Early Career Workshop in Quantitative Political Economy on 14-15 May 2026 at King’s College London!
Keynote: Shanker Satyanath (NYU)
No fee, travel grants might become available!
Submit at: tinyurl.com/qpe2026
This looks like a collage, with a background from 1930s Europe, and people with cellphones pasted on it... but it's real, the US today...
Let's see how good your football team would be without these immigrants.
@voxeu.org now offers a newsletter with a list of all columns published last week. You can subscribe by going to the link below and selecting VoxEU - weekly digest. Best source for research insights about pressing economic policy questions.
cepr.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=...
🌟New paper by Ricardo Soares de Oliveira (@oxmartinschool.bsky.social African Governance Programme) finds that African offshore finance is increasingly routed through Asian financial centres.
www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/news/africas...
The figure shows the ratio of cross-border (across EU countries or US states) to domestic sales for the different datasets in the year 2017 in manufacturing. The level of cross-border relative to domestic trade is higher in the US than in the EU. European firms tend to be smaller and less productive than US firms. Qualitative and survey-based evidence suggests that one key reason is the remaining barriers fragmenting the EU’s single market. This column argues that gravity-based trade estimates can help quantify the problem but are sensitive to the data used. Intra-EU trade barriers are estimated to be between two to three times as large as between US states, with simulations suggesting that fully closing the gap with intra-US trade costs could raise EU productivity by nearly 6%.
Diego A. Cerdeiro & Lorenzo Rotunno estimate that intra-EU trade barriers are between two to three times as large as between US states, with simulations suggesting that closing the gap could raise EU productivity by nearly 6%.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Figure shows the import-weighted average of product-level tariff reductions for countries involved in the economic integration scenario. While recent analysis has focused on direct impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation, major US trading partners have intensified trade negotiations with each other, including the recently completed EU–Mercosur and EU–India deals. Using a quantitative trade model, this column shows that deep integration – involving non-tariff barrier reductions – can offset welfare losses from US tariffs and generate net gains. Paradoxically, US tariffs may ease political economy constraints by strengthening incentives for export-oriented industries to lobby for deeper integration elsewhere.
Lorenzo Rotunno & Michele Ruta find that, paradoxically, US tariffs may ease political economy constraints by strengthening incentives for export-oriented industries to lobby for deeper integration elsewhere.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
"Many academic leaders follow managerial paths rather than scholarly ones, and the prevailing governance model encourages vice-chancellors and senior managers to act like corporate executives rather than academic stewards"
This is good on what's it like in a UK uni these days: Why are UK universities failing? - LSE Impact share.google/NYPBoQNH1DLH...
This is not a distraction.
Two days left to submit your papers!
📣 REMINDER - Call for Papers: The Economics of Migration Junior Workshop
💡 The event aims to provide an opportunity to junior researchers on #migration #economics to present and meet in-person.
📅 May 26-27, 2026 at @uc3meconomics.bsky.social
⏳ Submit by Feb 1st.
🔗 economig2026.sciencesconf.org
Everything is so transparent with trump haha... take over Venezuela government, steal oil revenues, put them in an offshore account in Qatar for your own personal benefit. 💯