VK

Has this been confirmed?

“Not the first time anyone has gone hunting for Scott Bessent’s stops.”

This Treasury ESF move is going to go as well for the admin as Herbalife went for Ackman.

Allll going well then?

Dem sweep up to 46%:

Also what the hell are their review an quality assurance processes like?!

The biggest lesson from this is model quality matters, and worser models - Amazon, msft are leading to poorer outcomes.

lol if that’s your defence….

Genuine q: does the BoE lack credibility OR is the market unclear on their reaction function?

We can say part of UK front end underperformance has been positioning, but is it more than that?

Hauser confirming my view of heightened hike risks in March. After all, if the labour market is re-tightening, and your above target inflation forecast is being confirmed - why wait?

Rate of change on Hormuz is not better, but rate of change on war objectives is?

🔥

So I agree with all this.

The question I have is does that impact CB reaction functions? I.e. let’s agree maybe ECB pricing of two hikes is extreme, but I don’t see preemptive cuts coming either. So is the distribution skewed the other way - at least initially?

Tell me more about

In markets you can use the following vectors to assess a situation. Let’s see how they apply to now:

Rate of change: getting worse
Levels: already bad w/ 4mn b/d down

Depth: Already bad, and expected to worsen
Duration: So far not bad, and potentially salvageable.

IMO, it’s important to be precise about what shocks world is undergoing rather than just $ smile safe-haven bla-bla.
1. Febs 2022 & 2026 were negative global energy supply shocks —> positive US ToT shocks.
2. Feb & April 2025 were US global public goods withdrawal —> RoW fiscal expansion shocks.

Even if the actual barrels at risk isn’t the full 20mn b/d due to various pipeline and re-routing capabilities, the number is still bigger than anything we’ve seen.

Also, Iran is stil sending drones to attack oil fields and refineries everyday.

There is no positive case until this ends.

True

What’s the best source keeping track of total production shut ins an refinery shut downs?

Juhu beach, Mumbai

The problem is Iran is about to asymmetrically impact the global economy via their hold over choke points. VZ not so much.

General consensus from my convos is: this is too dumb and bad to happen so it won’t.

So silly

OMG

Lol these companies are just meh

Oof

Good points

😮

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Is an oil spill in Hormuz a real risk right now?

Yeah I mean market doesn’t seem overly optimistic about it atm!