@angel-amores
• Physical Oceanographer: climate change and extreme events. • Associate Professor at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), Physics Department. • Researcher at the Mediterranean Institute of Advanced Studies (IMEDEA).
A completely different topic: Roberto Alcaraz has developed a new AI algorithm to re-identify individuals of lizards that works amazingly well! And it is able to identify individuals of zebras, seals, whale sharks and even human fingerprints! Here the pre-print www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-7...
#EGU25 Today I will present the results of our new paper: www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
Come to chat with us!
Stormy weather today in Palma...
@uib.cat @imedea.bsky.social
10/ Check out the full paper in @pnas.org:
“Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1°C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves”
doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
Data: zenodo.org/records/1052...
And come to our talk at 2025 @egu.eu in Viena! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...
9/ This dataset, like Maiman once said about his invention, the laser, is “a solution looking for a problem.”
We’ve already used it to other questions—like understanding the role of global warming in extreme precipitation events, as discussed in this thread:
bsky.app/profile/ange...
8/ Our method is different.
Instead of using climate model ensembles for probabilistic attribution, we used a statistical approach to directly subtract the effect of warming from observations.
This gives a clean and geographically-resolved attribution.
7/ Regional patterns matter:
In the tropics: MHWs have become more persistent, not necessarily hotter.
In high-latitude boundary currents: MHWs have grown more intense.
Some areas (e.g. Med Sea, Baltic) show strong increases in both.
6/ Globally, ~47% of all MHWs observed since 2000 wouldn’t have happened without global warming.
Let that sink in.
5/ We also quantified MHW intensity.
Global warming accounts for a 1°C rise in maximum MHW temperature anomalies since 1940.
In some regions (like the Mediterranean), the contribution exceeds 2°C.
4/ What we found:
Since 1940, the average number of MHW days per year has gone from 15 → 49.
In the counterfactual climate? Still ~16 days/year.
=> 34 extra MHW days/year due to warming. That’s a 3x increase.
3/ We built a “what-if” ocean.
Using ERA5 SST data (1940–2023), we constructed a counterfactual climate—a version of the ocean without long-term global warming, but keeping natural variability (ENSO, etc.).
This allows a clean attribution.
2/ Marine heatwaves = prolonged periods of unusually warm ocean surface waters.
They’re increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration—posing threats to ecosystems like coral reefs, kelp forests, and seagrasses.
But: How much of this is due to global warming?
1/ 🌊New paper out in @pnas.org!
We show that human-induced global warming is responsible for a 3-fold increase in marine heatwave (MHW) persistence and a 1°C rise in their intensity since 1940.
Let’s dive in.
#MarineHeatwaves #ClimateChange
doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
First timelapse recorded by the camera I installed to observe the weather. It covers around 2 hours with one image per minute. Besides the evolution of the clouds, all the planes landing to PMI plus the movement of a planet (Saturn?) can be seen. Follow @weathercampalmabay.bsky.social for more!
Yesterday, I installed a camera that I will use to observe the weather in Palma Bay. But right after installing it, nature gave me a Christmas present: look at the image I’m sharing. It looks grainy, but those are thousands of birds, starlings migrating to Mallorca.
11/ Thank you for reading! If you’re interested in climate science and extreme weather, let’s connect! Share your thoughts or questions below!
10/ The bigger picture: Rising SSTs due to global warming are amplifying the intensity of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones. Storm Daniel highlights the urgent need to prepare for more extreme weather events.
9/ Warm SSTs increased surface enthalpy fluxes (heat & moisture transfer), intensifying rainfall, especially during the storm's second phase in Libya. In Greece, the impact was milder as moisture sources were more remote.
8/ Using this counterfactual SST in our WRF model simulations revealed the massive role warming played. Without these elevated SSTs, Libya would have seen 81% less rainfall, and extreme rates were drastically reduced.
7/ This method preserves short-term variability (e.g., seasonal cycles, ENSO), ensuring the chronology matches the real-world conditions during Storm Daniel. It’s a robust way to isolate global warming's impact on SSTs.
6/ We applied a Bayesian framework to ERA5 SST data, separating day-to-day variability from the long-term warming trend. The result? A hypothetical SST dataset reflecting a climate without anthropogenic warming.
5/ Counterfactual SST removes the global warming signal correlated with long-term near-surface air temperature trends (since 1940). This isolates the effects of human-induced climate change from natural variability.
4/ To quantify this, we used a counterfactual SST approach. But what does that mean? Let’s dive into the methodology.
3/ 🌡️ What fueled Storm Daniel? Anomalously high SSTs in the Mediterranean. Some areas saw SSTs 5.5°C above normal. Warm SSTs provided the extra energy and moisture that intensified the storm’s rainfall and wind.
2/ In September 2023, Storm Daniel devastated Greece and Libya, with rainfall records over 700 mm in Greece (in 18 hrs!) and 400 mm in Libya. The storm caused catastrophic infrastructure failure and a tragic death toll of 4.000–10.000.
1/ 🌊 Just published! 🚨 Our latest study, led by @dargueso.bsky.social, explores how anomalously high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Mediterranean fueled Storm Daniel, one of the deadliest storms in the region's history. Here's what we found. A thread 🧵👇 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Storm Daniel was fuelled by very high SSTs, which contributed to increase the precipitation rates, especially in Libya. Check our latest paper in NPJClimAtSci rdcu.be/d39Su with @angel-amores.bsky.social and @martaimm.bsky.social
