NIcholas A. R. Fraser

Bill C-12 won’t save time and money.

Why?

It ignores how access to competent & ethical legal counsel:

—> REDUCES withdrawn/abandoned (WA) asylum claims

We tried this before

Harper’s DCO policy:

- triggered an 11% cost surge

- WA claims increased by 46%

#C-12
#Immigration
#SenateofCanada

Bill C-12 won’t save time and money.

Why?

It ignores how access to competent & ethical legal counsel:

—> REDUCES withdrawn/abandoned (WA) asylum claims

We tried this before

Harper’s DCO policy:

- triggered an 11% cost surge

- WA claims increased by 46%

#C-12
#Immigration
#SenateofCanada

The Empirical Evidence for the Bill C-12 Debate 🧵

Many discuss the human rights risks.

My analysis complements this discussion by looking at what makes immigration procedures more or less efficient.

#C-12
#RefugeeLaw
#Immigration
#DataAnalytics
#EvidenceBasedPolicy
#SenateofCanada

@utoronto.ca supported research 🔬

🧵 (8)

Full Article:
"More than advocates: Lawyers' role in efficient refugee status determination" Canadian Public Administration, 65(4), 647-666. DOI: lnkd.in/gW5G5ARS

Technical Annex on Senate website:
lnkd.in/g9aqC-bh

Proud to serve as an Expert of Record for the SOCI committee!

🧵 (7)

Gov't must partner with civil society.

Bill C-12 is based on the same logic of the DCO policy: strip procedural rights away to speed up procedures. It doesn't work.

You cannot shortcut your way to a functional system without creating massive administrative churn and cost.

🧵 (6)

Over 80% of IRB Members agree that specialized counsel makes the process more efficient. Lawyers act as information extractors, ensuring files are hearing-ready and reducing the need for lengthy, unorganized proceedings.

🧵 (5)

Ethical and competent counsel:

1. (informally) pre-screen refugee applicants (lawyers representing applicants);

2. help IRB Members make sense of claims; and

3) provide legal advice that improves decision-making (IRB's Legal Services) and reduces litigation.

🧵 (4)

I found that the DCO policy triggered an 11% surge in operational costs and a 46% abandonment rate. It failed to make immigration procedures more efficient. We must remind policymakers of this now.

🧵 (3)

The Harper government tried what the Carney government is attempting. My research tested whether the Harper government's Designated Country of Origin (DCO) policy effectively met its stated goal of making procedures more efficient by reducing the number of withdrawn/abandoned refugee claims.

🧵 (2)

Sadly, there are very few empirical studies on what makes immigration procedures efficient.

My research 🔬 addresses this gap.

My own audit of 178,873 cases (SSHRC-funded and done at UofT) seriously challenges the notion that scaling back procedural rights makes procedures more efficient.

The Empirical Evidence for the Bill C-12 Debate 🧵

Many discuss the human rights risks.

My analysis complements this discussion by looking at what makes immigration procedures more or less efficient.

#C-12
#RefugeeLaw
#Immigration
#DataAnalytics
#EvidenceBasedPolicy
#SenateofCanada

Great points and tips!

When I taught at Harvard, one strategy I used was getting students to present their term paper to the whole class — it was a seminar so it was feasible. I graded them on their slides, how well they presented them, and on how they handled the Q & A session.

Amazing 🤩 work!

Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content Being selective about the platforms that we spend our time on, and learning how to handle social media conflict will help the digital ecosystem for all of us.

Read "Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content," in the Conversation @theconversation.com by Nicholas A.R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social (2022-23). theconversation.com/politically-...

The Disappointment of Young Trump Voters Americans under 30 swung to the right in 2024, but they’re not getting what they voted for.

"Most members of Generation Z were still children when Trump came down the escalator…They don’t view Trump as sui generis or beyond the pale, because he’s been the dominant force in our politics for as long as they’ve been politically aware."
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

We need this everywhere.

Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content Being selective about the platforms that we spend our time on, and learning how to handle social media conflict will help the digital ecosystem for all of us.

Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content (below 👇🏻)

theconversation.com/politically-...

ポピュリズムの潮流下でも既存政党は踏ん張れる　米識者がみた衆院選：朝日新聞 ■トロント大教授兼東京大教授　フィリップ・リプシー氏　自民党が圧勝した今回の衆院選を、海外の日本研究者はどう見るのか。日本政治が専門で、トロント大学と東京大学で教授を兼任するフィリップ・リプシー氏に聞…

I was interviewed by @asahi.com about the recent Japanese election (article is in Japanese)

www.asahi.com/articles/ASV...

Google Fulfilled ICE Subpoena Demanding Student Journalist’s Bank and Credit Card Numbers Amandla Thomas-Johnson didn't know how much information ICE requested in a subpoena now. Google never gave him a chance to fight it.

🚨 Google Fulfilled ICE Subpoena Demanding Journalist’s Bank and Credit Card Numbers

Trump admin is targeting journalists and those who dissent. Google is complicit.

$GOOGL

theintercept.com/2026/02/10/g...

Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content Being selective about the platforms that we spend our time on, and learning how to handle social media conflict will help the digital ecosystem for all of us.

Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content (below 👇🏻)

theconversation.com/politically-...

Japan’s youth are quietly securing their nation’s future Young voters didn’t just express opinions in polls, they showed up at voting stations in increased numbers, many for the first time.

Commentary: Takaichi’s landslide victory demonstrated that when candidates find compelling issues that affect their lives, young people show up.

Download the preprint version of their paper here

👇🏻

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Do Voters Sometimes Support Parties They Actually Disagree With? In elections across democracies, we assume voters cast ballots for candidates whose policies align with their interests. But what happens when that's not the case? This week, we unpack a political puz...

Opposition parties offer more attractive policies …

BUT

… Japanese voters trust the LDP brand (the safe bet).

Recent studies show this 👇🏻

effectivegov.uchicago.edu/podcast/do-v...

#JapanElection2026
🇯🇵

Takaichi’s big electoral win reflects desire for affordability, unity, stability in the face of uncertainties created by great powers (China 🇨🇳 and the US 🇺🇸)

Voters turned to Japan’s 🇯🇵 dominant party: the LDP to navigate these uncertain times.

Amazing talk!

Islamophobia in Western Europe is unrelated to religiosity but highly correlated with far right attitudes - Kai Arzheimer, 2025 The far right’s relationship with religion has become a major focus of current research. Even in Western Europe, one of the most rapidly secularising areas of t...

2025 #ThrowBackPaper (open access): In (Western) Europe, #Islamophobia is closely linked to #farright attitudes. But both are unrelated to religiosity 📄🔁📊

Takaichi’s big victory might not be mandate for big spending Fiscal hawks in the LDP and the bond market are expected to keep a lid on stimulus spending.

Takaichi’s big victory might not be a mandate for big spending with fiscal hawks in the LDP and the bond market keeping a lid on stimulus spending.

The long road to recovery after the CRA’s election loss The new party must find new leadership after a crushing debut defeat.

After a crushing debut defeat, Japan’s Centrist Reform Alliance faces a long road back to relevance — starting with a change in leadership.

🟥The Impossible State | Feb 10, 11 AM ET

In next week's episode, @csis.org @geopolitics.csis.org
@victordcha.bsky.social, Senior Associate Adam Farrar, and Igor Khrestin unpack Trump’s 2026 National Defense Strategy—and what it means for the Korean Peninsula.

Learn more: csis.org/events/impos...