"Not great, Bob..."
Reminder: ~90% of the excess heat we've added as humans gets absorbed by our oceans.
@climatecentral.org's Climate Shift Index shows this north/northwest Gulf warmth is up to 50x more likely due to climate change.
observablehq.com/@climatecent...
Considering the roaring start to severe weather season, a quick & timely chat with @coveringclimatenow.org about how climate change is part of the severe weather story ⤵️
Starting soon!
Still time to sign up & join us (or sign up so that you can get the recording dropped in your inbox later today)
🔗 climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
ENHANCED (3/5) severe weather risk Tuesday for north-central Illinois, NE Missouri, NW Indiana (per SPC).
One factor: highs 30-35°F ABOVE average, boosting instability through the afternoon.
🔴This unusual early-March warmth has a detectable-to-strong fingerprint of climate change
Plus side to this rain (other than the needed rain)...it's going to knock down some of these pollen grains!
(Counter point: plants are going to do some sprouting after this & make much more pollen)
Plans out & about on this Saturday in the Brazos Valley?
⏰May want to have them wrapped up by 2pm here in #bcstx.
Line of rain/storms expected to fill in & crash through the area N➡️SSE mid-afternoon through early evening
Latest forecast for what radar could look like ⤵️
"Earth warmed by about 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015. Then, between 2015 and 2025, it warmed by 0.35°, the study found — a 75% jump.
It’s a “significant” increase & higher rate than any previous decade since record keeping began in 1880, the paper concluded." share.google/tYiqi7QS5agw...
For planning & timing purposes, here's a check of what radar *could* look like as we head through the day.
🍃Outflow boundary blows in minimal fashion by morning.
⛈️Afternoon heating lights up that boundary, kicking off our round of expected thunderstorms into the evening hours
SATURDAY: Planning out your day across the Brazos Valley? Other than a few, passing showers -- pre 2-3pm should be good-to-go.
⏰Mid-afternoon → late evening
⛈️Scat'd rain/storms upend late day outdoor plans
⚠️Heavy rain, lightning, isolated hail potential
#bcstx #txwx
Wildfire seasons are lengthening and intensifying, especially in this spring season we are stepping into.
On average, fire weather days have increased by ~1 month per year across much of the U.S.
Check out the interactive data 👉 observablehq.com/@climatecent...
The weather shifts we're seeing go beyond warmer days.
🔥Fire weather conditions—hot, dry, and windy—are increasing across Texas, especially in central, northern, and western regions.
The trend: 3 weeks to a month+ more fire-prone days each year compared to past decades.
Per @kbtx.com & @maxwx.bsky.social: Texas just experienced the worst February for wildfires since 2005.
🔥258 wildfires responded to
🔥45,881 acred burned
🚒530 firefighters, 74 engines, 31 dozers, and 48 aircraft worked these blazes
More: www.kbtx.com/2026/03/06/t...
🧵
cc: @climatecentral.org @heatwavekgns.bsky.social
📍Laredo, Texas: First 100° temperature of the year in the U.S. was recorded Thursday (February 26).
🌡️25°+ above average | breaks the all-time daily high record, replacing 2024's 98°
🔴Attribution science shows this extreme February heat here would be RARE in a world w/out climate change
Brazos Valley [finally] got in on a healthy, needed rain this past weekend.
How common are thunderstorms in February around here?
Not unheard of, but definitely not our noisiest time of year ⤵️
#txwx
All 3 of these active wildfires are in areas where a VERY HIGH risk to homes, businesses, structures exists.
More than 1/3 of the U.S. (nearly 116M people) & about one-third of all buildings (around 48M homes & residential structures) are in counties with high or very high wildfire risk to homes
Several wildfires broke out Tuesday, particularly in the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles
Some of the largest (as of 9pm CT):
• Ranger Road Road fire (Beaver Co, OK): 145k acres
• Lavender Fire (Oldham Co, TX): 7,500 acres
• 8 Ball Fire (Armstrong Co, TX): 7k acres
More info: app.watchduty.org/i/80888
🚨TODAY at 12 PM ET / 9 AM PT🚨
Join us for #ClimateCentral's Monthly Climate Brief as we recap the latest global and U.S. climate statistics from January 2026.
Learn more and register below⤵️
🔥 Critical fire weather TUESDAY from the Rockies' front range to the Southern High Plains
💨 Wind gusts: 50-65mph+
Areas under Extreme Risk now see 1-2 weeks MORE fire weather days per year than in the 1970s, as climate change amplifies the underlying conditions that allow for rapid wildfire growth
Mighty fine day of [needed] rain for the Brazos Valley.
As of 6pm, #bcstx has collected 1.62" of rain. That is:
• The 2nd MOST rainfall of record for February 14th
• The most rain that has fallen in 112 days (October 12th - 3")
Quick glance at the latest *forecast* of what radar could look like for the Brazos Valley mid-afternoon ➡️ evening.
Keep this in mind as you make your evening #ValentinesDay plans
#txwx
Brazos Valley has been colored in a 2 out of 5 risk for a few strong/severe storms by late afternoon ➡️evening
⏰3pm-8pm (#bcstx: 4-6pm)
⚠️Wind gusts 30-50mph (isolated 60mph possible), brief pocket change size hail. Tornado threat low (but not zero further south & east)
Two different versions of a forecast for what the radar could look like SATURDAY early evening across the Brazos Valley.
◀️HRRR - 5pm
▶️RRFS - 6pm
For #bcstx this currently looks to be the biggest storm window. Plan accordingly for #ValentinesDay evening plans #txwx
We've had a chill here & there—but winter didn't really show up in the Brazos Valley this year
🌡️This winter is TIED as the 10th warmest Dec-Feb on record in #bcstx (56.1°, +2.8° above average)
🔴Long-term data shows us: winters are not only getting warmer, but shorter here
More details, data, & sources (via @climatecentral.org)
• www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...
• www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...
• www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...
• www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...
The science is clear.
Climate change is real.
It's caused by us.
And the good news? We can still absolutely do something about it.
Start your own conversations. Communication is where solutions begin.
(Let me show my work on that last line from above ⤵️)
www.irena.org/Publications...
Every bit of additional carbon pollution makes things worse—but we know how to fix this.
We have proven solutions to cut emissions in transportation, electricity, and industry.
and here's the thing...renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels in much of the world.
2025 was:
4th hottest year on record for the U.S. (behind 2024, 2012, & 2016)
3rd hottest year on record globally (behind 2024 & 2023)
For both: all 10 hottest years have occurred since 2000—mostly since 2015.
These three gases have caused 1.6°C (2.9°F) of warming since 1850.
CO2 and methane account for 95% of that warming.
(Note: Aerosols from pollution have masked some warming through a cooling effect—but as air quality improves, even that buffer disappears.)
