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Elise Thomas

@elisethomas

Senior OSINT Investigator at @cen4infores.bsky.social. Opinions, hot takes, mistakes all my own. https://www.clippings.me/elisethomas

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Latest posts by Elise Thomas @elisethomas

It is probably not helpful for the Iranian women soccer players -or, more to the point, their families back in Iran - for there to be this level of media coverage around them.

Don't make them a cause célèbre which the regime feels it must respond to.

10.03.2026 10:05 👍 16 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

Trump did not announce a U.S. policy then walk it back. That is not what happened, and media presenting it that way does a disservice.

Trump said words he thought might appeal to his audience in the moment, with no connection to actual policy, then did that again with a different question/asker.

09.03.2026 23:20 👍 2778 🔁 757 💬 73 📌 31

I really hope they mention this in the history books

10.03.2026 07:08 👍 15 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0
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Similarly, we should think about the arm twisting which parts of the US administration are trying to do to the Gulf states to make them actively participate in a war which they didn’t start, don’t want and weren’t even warned about in advance.

10.03.2026 07:01 👍 12 🔁 9 💬 0 📌 0
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Australia to send aircraft and air-to-air missiles to Gulf to ‘protect and defend’ civilians, PM says Anthony Albanese announces surveillance aircraft, air-to-air missiles and supporting personnel will be deployed to the UAE after request from their president

Gulf countries welcomed US military bases because they thought it would make them safer. In fact it's put them directly in harm's way due to the US's actions and the US has not adequately defended them.

We should think about this precedent in the AUKUS context. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

10.03.2026 03:56 👍 38 🔁 7 💬 2 📌 1

By “expose myself to enemy fire to communicate” he means he’ll tweet and maybe someone will tweet some mean things back at him

10.03.2026 00:43 👍 18 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 0

* mass domestic surveillance

We've known for well over a decade that the US does mass surveillance targeting the rest of us. There is some irony in seeing the horror with which US citizens react to the idea that their government might treat them like their government treats everyone else.

08.03.2026 12:14 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

god give me the confidence of Hudson Institute guys arguing that Tehran is the first domino against Beijing

08.03.2026 02:28 👍 475 🔁 54 💬 20 📌 19
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More from Tehran. The Aghdasieh oil depot in Sohanak is completely ablaze. #Iran

07.03.2026 22:17 👍 198 🔁 55 💬 5 📌 16
07.03.2026 22:58 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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1/ Civilian donations to the Russian army are said to have collapsed ahead of the imminent ban on Telegram. It's a consequence, predicted by warbloggers, of the Russian government's apparent decision to ban the app. The impact on the front line is likely to be severe. ⬇️

07.03.2026 09:23 👍 393 🔁 105 💬 13 📌 13
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Exclusive: Trump tells Reuters US must have a role in choosing Iran's next leader Trump said in a ‌telephone interview that the Ayatollah's son is an 'unlikely' choice as leader.

But remember, it's not a regime change war. Also it's not a war. And the goal isn't regime change. It's just overthrowing the previous regime and picking a new one. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

06.03.2026 12:10 👍 10 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0

So, yep.

06.03.2026 04:08 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

clearly they don't all of the time! I honestly don't know why they do now, but as one guess it could be to avoid another friendly fire incident after the Kuwaiti air defences shot down those three (three!!) US jets

05.03.2026 11:57 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Actually at least four, two more just turned on their transponders

05.03.2026 11:49 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 3 📌 0

Had the slightly grim thought that maybe Trump's "big one" is en route and the US has quietly told allied governments that this is the moment to get as many people out as they can before they strike.

05.03.2026 11:38 👍 8 🔁 1 💬 3 📌 2

Two of these headed from Tel Aviv into the Gulf right now

05.03.2026 11:35 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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Seems like the most air traffic over Oman/Saudi/little bit of the UAE since the start of the war. Everyone's decided this is their moment to get in and out, for some reason?

05.03.2026 10:34 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 1

Iranian drones have hit Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry says. Two injured.

Widening.

05.03.2026 09:05 👍 547 🔁 226 💬 54 📌 24
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“We are in an undeclared state of war.”

After Mike Johnson says the US is not at war, and Donald Trump says it is, Lindsey Graham tells @premthakker.bsky.social a third answer: an “undeclared state of war” — which, he suggests, allows the US to illegally strike ships in international waters.

05.03.2026 00:04 👍 536 🔁 177 💬 65 📌 52
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Jackie O enabled the misogyny of Kyle Sandilands. Inevitably, he turned on her Prime ministers and premiers have pandered to bottom-shelf vulgarian Sandilands. It’s hard to feel too much sympathy for his co-host when she endured one of his on-air sprays.

No kidding. It says so much about this person that she was happy to stand by and profit from the many many many many many many many other times Sandilands attacked other people, often women, and it was only when she personally became his target that she walked away. www.theage.com.au/culture/tv-a...

04.03.2026 10:04 👍 24 🔁 7 💬 3 📌 0
04.03.2026 00:26 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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I built a free tool that shows how night-time lights have changed anywhere on Earth.

Here's how it works and why it's useful for monitoring conflict, disasters, development and growth. 👇

02.03.2026 21:50 👍 94 🔁 48 💬 9 📌 1

We’re deeply at risk of no president ever getting another leadership orb.

03.03.2026 01:06 👍 36 🔁 7 💬 0 📌 0

Hundreds of civilians dead

03.03.2026 01:01 👍 79 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0

This looks to be pretty much exactly what they're doing

02.03.2026 23:15 👍 8 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

I only very recently learned from someone that going to Dubai for holidays was A Thing among the British. Very weird for an Australian, we transit Dubai but I don't believe I know a single Aussie who's actually chosen it as a holiday destination.

02.03.2026 12:36 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

always worth remembering that "the cloud" is actually just someone else's computer (or their many, many computers)

02.03.2026 10:09 👍 18 🔁 8 💬 0 📌 0

Who knows in the long run but in the short to medium term this probably works very much in their interests

02.03.2026 02:11 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Hard to know all the implications but it’s probably a net benefit to Russia. They’ve mostly localised Shahed production, they’ll benefit economically from an oil price spike, benefit diplomatically from the US being distracted, benefit militarily from the US having less weaponry to sell to Ukraine

02.03.2026 02:10 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0