Emeka Egbuka
Most WRs miss between 1-3.5 weeks with hamstring strains
Median = 2
High reinjury rate (ranks 2 among 16 most common WR injuries)
Tampa has bye in Week 9
Sample size = 142
Hopeful he’s back by Week 10
*your request to turn injuries off has been denied
www.footballguys.com/article/2025...
Enjoyed chatting with @adamhutchison.bsky.social on this week's Late-Round Perspectives episode. We dug into his process for evaluating injuries, and then went over a ton of players who are banged up.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/6FIC...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1Gq...
Keep this bookmarked for your fantasy football season.
Few have examined injuries quite like this.
Exclusive to @footballguys.com
www.footballguys.com/article/2025...
Here’s the breakdown by position.
A more detailed explanation of this will be found @Footballguys soon.
There’s a lot of nuanced discussion that could be had around why this happened.
Was it a fluke?
Are teams using more committees?
Etc etc. but traditionally drafting WR early has been a safer route as they have a 36% chance to play 17 games vs. RBs 27%
We also didn’t feel it as much because using last season’s ADP of RBs that went rounds 1-2, 7/ 12 RBs played a full season
10/12 played at least 14 games with only Christian McCaffrey Isiah Pacheco missing this benchmark
Drilling down to just 2024, it’s a smaller sample of 52 qualifying RB but that number drastically shot up. If we just used 2024 data RBs would have a 40% playing a full season
Four-Zero.
Massive jump
Average games played 14.7
I’ve always looked at positional fragility in #fantasyfootball
Historically since 2020, RBs have a 27% chance to play a full season (17 games)
Average 13.8 games played shown by dotted line here
But last year seems to have been an outlier that some are overlooking
Sounds like Texans are downplaying this and saying they will re-evaluate the injury prior to Week 1 but based on this information, if I’m drafting today, I would only select him with one of my last picks.
@footballguys.com
Joe Mixon- fantasy football spin
Unclear if it’s the same foot sprain/injury that ended his 2020 season after 6 games.
Since 2017 16% of foot injuries for RB are season ending.
Diggs? I like his price. Feels appropriate per @Footballguys projections.
💡 Bottom line: I think there’s opportunity with Aiyuk, especially at his Underdog ADP (8-9 turn). Even if he starts on PUP, he could provide late-season value. Risk seems baked in — and Best Ball is about ceiling swings.
I even ran a small-sample regression model. Take it with a grain of salt — but it predicted well for possession-style WRs, struggled on field stretchers.
This brings me to Aiyuk + Diggs. No direct comps, but their style/usage resembles those successful post-ACLR WRs. I generally fade field stretchers (high aDOT, low Tgt%).
WRs who excelled in those areas + did well post-ACLR:
Chris Godwin
Cooper Kupp
Julian Edelman
Keenan Allen.
Correlations with post-injury fantasy PPG? Targets per game, Target Share, pre-injury fantasy PPG, YPPR — all had solid relationships (no shocker). Same as non-injured WRs, and a good base for projections.
Common assumptions like “he’s young/athletic, so I like his chances” didn’t show up in the data. Maybe it factors into return-to-play timeline, but otherwise weak.
⚠️ Small sample: 30 WRs total, 26 met my criteria. I focused on WRs dealing with ACL injury and studied the numbers.
On average, efficiency metrics decline the year after ACLR — no surprise, players tend to struggle. But not every WR post-ACLR stunk. Jordy Nelson nearly hit 20 PPG. Cooper Kupp finished top-10 among WRs in 2019 after his ACL tear. So what do the numbers say?
As we ramp up to #fantasyfootball season and Best Ball drafts, I wanted to dig deeper into two WRs coming off ACL reconstruction (ACLR): Brandon Aiyuk and Stefon Diggs.
#bestball #underdog
Using more recent sample (WRs since 2021) timeline moves to 297 days
Week 1 for Aiyuk is ~293 days
For more in depth analysis on Aiyuk and others head to @footballguys.com
A lot of Brandon Aiyuk #fantasyfootball talk today
The MCL likely a factor in Aiyuk’s recovery but comparing return-to-play timelines, I still think there’s a chance he’s ready W1.
Avg RTP timeline for WRs is 320 days post-op
It would appear that twitter / x has completely crashed
It’s HERE!
The 2025 @footballguys.com Rookie Guide!
The team crush it!
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rookieguide.footballguys.com
The Super Bowl may be over, but fantasy football continues
www.footballguys.com/article/2025...
Dynasty player?
Redraft sicko?
Looking ahead to 2025 here are some injury situations to keep an eye on.
www.footballguys.com/article/2024...
