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Australian Strategic Policy Institute

@aspi-org

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute is an independent, non-partisan think tank focused on Australia's defence, cyber, tech and strategic policy.

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Latest posts by Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org

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Darwin Port: stop picking over the past and move forward | The Strategist Security concerns drove the Australian government’s 2025 decision to bring Darwin Port, currently leased to Chinese company Landbridge, back into the control of Australian or trusted partners. So it s...

'Australia can now plan, invest and develop Darwin Port so it can sustain the economic development of northern Australia and support our defence and national security needs long into the future,' writes John Coyne.

12.03.2026 22:09 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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NEW PODCAST 🎤

This week on Stop the World, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna joins David Wroe for a conversation on Russia, Iran, the United States and the imperative for smaller countries such as Estonia and Australia to work together.

🎧 Listen ➡️ bit.ly/4bE3cwi
📺 Watch ➡️ bit.ly/4b6lx4Z

12.03.2026 21:44 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Australia steps up reliance on uncrewed surface vessels | The Strategist Expansion of Australia’s fleet of Ocius Bluebottle uncrewed boats is an important step, but it must not be the last in creating a larger and more powerful navy that mixes such systems with conventiona...

'That expanded fleet of 55 Bluebottle USVs must be only the beginning of the process. Platforms such as the Bluebottle must also fully exploit continuous modernisation processes to take full advantage of rapid innovation cycles for fast evolution of their capabilities,' writes Malcolm Davis.

12.03.2026 05:55 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Bondi royal commission needs full visibility—without creating new security risks | The Strategist Thank you for the invitation to appear today in relation to the Royal Commissions Legislation Amendment (Protections for Providing Information) Bill. I register my strong support for the establishment...

'My strong support for Australia’s current secrecy provisions, leads me to support the bill’s requirement that information imparted be through arrangement made between the royal commission and the Commonwealth,' writes Chris Taylor.

12.03.2026 04:47 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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🚨 Registrations now open for the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference 🚨

Join policymakers, military leaders and experts in Canberra on 25 June to discuss strengthening deterrence, building credible capability and reinforcing collective security.

🎟️ Register here: bit.ly/4b4EHbo

12.03.2026 03:17 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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ICYMI 🔉

This week on Stop the World, Ukrainian MP Galyna Mykhailiuk joined David Wroe to discuss the state of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the prospects for peace as the conflict enters its fifth year, and the impact of the Iran conflict on Ukraine and its security.

🎧 Listen 👉 bit.ly/3P45gVF

11.03.2026 21:23 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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When the world changes, so must our defence: Australian spending should exceed 2 percent | The Strategist The Iran War, more than four years of Russia’s war on Ukraine and tensions in the Indo-Pacific have prompted most democratic nations to reset defence strategies and budgets. The strategic rationale is...

'The Iran War, more than four years of Russia’s war on Ukraine and tensions in the Indo-Pacific have prompted most democratic nations to reset defence strategies and budgets. The strategic rationale is just as relevant for Australia,' write Marc Ablong and Justin Bassi.

11.03.2026 04:37 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Economic espionage in the AI age demands new responses | The Strategist Artificial intelligence is transforming economic cyber-espionage, but the protection of commercially valuable assets has not kept up. Governments and industry cannot rely on pre-AI defences to confron...

'Economic cyber-espionage has always been about securing advantage. In the age of AI, that advantage rests increasingly in models, data and algorithms,' writes Gatra Priyandita.

10.03.2026 22:08 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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China’s air force has gone quiet around Taiwan. No one has a good explanation | The Strategist After the US-Israeli attack on Iran began, the Chinese air force stopped flying around Taiwan—and the reason isn’t at all clear. Observers have offered various possibilities, but none seems convincing...

'While the break was ended by flights by two planes on 6 March, there have been no further intrusions since then. And the mystery remains,' writes Thijs Stegeman.

10.03.2026 04:53 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Beijing’s new missile threat to Australia | The Strategist Vital strategic installations such as the top-secret intelligence site at Pine Gap are more than ever at risk of direct attack by China in a conflict. Beijing has scant regard for such facilities’ rol...

'Missile interceptors have great difficulty in intercepting highly manoeuvrable hypersonic glide vehicle warheads of the type that the DF-27 can be armed with, rendering the potential for successful defence in doubt,' writes Victor Abramowicz.

09.03.2026 23:17 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨

In ‘Australia and the upending of US intelligence’, Chris Taylor examines how the second Trump administration’s approach to 🇺🇸 intelligence is affecting the Five Eyes & what that means for 🇦🇺’s national intelligence community & broader national interests.

🔖 Read: bit.ly/4d7uZGA

09.03.2026 22:26 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Opportunity for China: US depletes interceptor stocks in Middle East | The Strategist The US- and Israeli-led war on Iran has been, with a few key caveats, a quick military success for the United States and its allies. That doesn’t mean it’ll be a strategic success. Indeed, the ...

'It’s been a textbook precision air campaign. As long as the US and its allies keep the war short, keep it in the air and find some exit strategy that doesn’t prolong regional chaos or mire them in a ground campaign, they can justifiably declare a sort of victory,' writes @davidaxe.bsky.social.

06.03.2026 05:41 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Fifty years after Tange, service chiefs have lost too much authority. Restore it | The Strategist Fifty years after the Tange reforms created the modern Australian Defence Force, Australia faces a structural problem that few are willing to confront: steady erosion of the service chiefs’ authority....

'Fifty years after the Tange reforms created the modern Australian Defence Force, Australia faces a structural problem that few are willing to confront: steady erosion of the service chiefs’ authority,' writes Jennifer Parker.

05.03.2026 22:06 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Littoral manoeuvre will need northern Australian support | The Strategist Discussion of the Australian Defence Force’s planned littoral-manoeuvre capability is too narrow, focusing on ships, ranges and geography. Defence should treat it as an alliance-enabled industrial and...

'Near-term credibility must come from forward sustainment capacity, pre-positioned stocks, hardened northern infrastructure and expanded technical workforce pipelines,' writes John Coyne.

05.03.2026 04:37 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Social insecurity: Cohesion, outrage economics and national resilience in Australia - ASPI Australia’s social cohesion is not collapsing, but it is under sustained and growing strain. This report argues that the country has entered a new risk environment.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

In 'Social insecurity' John Coyne and Justin Bassi find we have weakened resilience to different views along with normalisation of violence, both online and off, and need to rebuild a capacity to hold multiple, sometimes uncomfortable beliefs, simultaneously.

📚 Read the report:

04.03.2026 23:44 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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In contested times, Australia needs to take social cohesion seriously | The Strategist The health of Australia’s democracy; the combined freedom, security and resilience of its society; and the credibility of its institutions are colliding in real time. What looks like social friction, ...

'The choice isn’t between unity and freedom, or security and speech. The real choice is whether disagreement becomes a source of renewal or a slow-burning vulnerability,' write John Coyne and Justin Bassi.

04.03.2026 23:07 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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The importance of hard power for the ADF | The Strategist The United States’ and Israel’s military operations against Iran highlight the importance of the Australian Defence Force’s long-range strike and power projection capabilities. The operations also rei...

'In confronting a challenge such as that posed by China, it is best for the Royal Australian Navy and the ADF more broadly to seek to project power forward from the sea-air gap in our northern approaches. Ideally, it would do this as part of a coalition,' writes Malcolm Davis.

04.03.2026 04:36 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Under Takaichi, JAUKUS is increasingly plausible | The Strategist JAUKUS may yet be possible. I argued in 2023 that Japan couldn’t be added to AUKUS Pillar Two because it lacked legal and regulatory alignment with Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States....

'Japan’s restrictive arms transfer regulations and weak anti-espionage laws, both rooted in post-World War II pacifism, meant JAUKUS was not yet a realistic possibility, however appealing it might be strategically,' writes Ryosuke Hanada.

03.03.2026 23:06 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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How China would intimidate and disrupt Australia in a Taiwan Strait crisis | The Strategist Beijing’s primary concern in a Taiwan contingency is US intervention—but its planning would not stop there. China has the capacity to pressure key US allies, including Australia, even while focusing o...

'While Australia cannot determine the outcome of a Taiwan Strait crisis on its own, it has a direct stake in how it unfolds and the ability to complicate Beijing’s actions through diplomatic, economic and military responses,' writes Nathan Attrill.

03.03.2026 04:37 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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The Commonwealth: a ceremonial relic that could be a supply-chain backstop | The Strategist If BRICS can assemble an economic and political coalition with strategic intent, why shouldn’t the Commonwealth countries? This is the hard question Australia and its allies should be asking themselve...

'BRICS represents institutional entrepreneurship, not ideological unity. Members seek insulation from coercion and greater control over finance, trade and technology. This resonates well beyond the Global South,' writes Andrew Henderson.

02.03.2026 22:19 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Pentagon–Anthropic brawl demands rethink of AI industry | The Strategist Imagine we found a way to build gods—or demons. Would we want private companies to have sole responsibility and control over the almighty? Imagine the workload on their legal teams. Fine, they’re dram...

'The concerns about autonomous lethal weapons alone are enough to show this is not just any commercial tool. It is already capable of deciding to target and kill a human being. That’s not a tool; it’s an agent and its capacity for power over our lives will only grow,' writes David Wroe.

02.03.2026 05:06 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Northern Australia needs resilient, networked infrastructure | The Strategist Concrete and ribbon-cutting events don’t sustain wars; fuel, power, logistics and people do. Australia has invested significantly in northern basing and alliance posture, yet our strategic debate stil...

'In northern Australia, defence resilience, national security and economic security are not competing agendas. Properly integrated, they reinforce one another,' writes John Coyne.

01.03.2026 22:18 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Replicating Sydney 2000’s success means addressing Brisbane 2032’s security requirements now | The Strategist The 2000 Sydney Summer Olympics were arguably the greatest ever. Their preparation also kickstarted the last quarter century of Australian national security capability building—considerably before 9/1...

'Decisions taken now—about technology platforms, data architectures, vendor relationships and intergovernmental coordination—will determine Australia’s exposure well beyond 2032,' writes Chris Taylor.

27.02.2026 04:43 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Critical minerals need reliable financing frameworks | The Strategist In critical minerals policy, one of the costliest things we can say is ‘we signed a memorandum of understanding’. Public announcements can signal intent, but they don’t build processing plants, turn o...

Without steady, coordinated finance that links miners to the manufacturers that depend on their materials, good intentions won’t translate into real capacity or secure supply,' writes John Coyne.

26.02.2026 22:11 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Resilience under fire: how US’s WWII airfield upgrades back Taiwan | The Strategist In World War II, the United States built a western Pacific airfield here, another there, and more elsewhere, each intended to bring more Japanese targets into range. Now the abundance of old bases is ...

'No publicly known exercise or basing initiative is explicitly framed as a Taiwan war rehearsal. Nevertheless, taken together, they reveal an emerging operational model that aligns closely with the requirements of a Taiwan contingency,' writes Rowan Allport.

26.02.2026 04:42 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Darwin is central to defence. It should be treated as such | The Strategist On 19 February 1942, Japanese aircraft attacked the harbour and town in what remains the largest single assault ever mounted on Australian soil. For much of Australia, it’s a historical reference poin...

'Darwin sits closer to Jakarta than to Canberra. It’s proximate to Southeast Asia’s maritime chokepoints and to the Indo-Pacific’s most dynamic economic and security corridors. For Territorians, distance isn’t measured in political narratives but in nautical miles,' writes John Coyne.

25.02.2026 22:07 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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No, Trump’s tariff rise doesn’t damage the Australian–US alliance | The Strategist Amid alarm stemming from President Donald Trump’s on-and-off-again tariff rise this week, let’s not lose our ability to distinguish between a mere flesh wound and amputation. The administration’s deci...

'The president’s first term combined tariff activism and burden-sharing rhetoric with institutional continuity in Indo-Pacific defence settings. Tariffs functioned largely as bargaining leverage,' write John Coyne and Justin Bassi.

25.02.2026 04:41 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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NEW PODCAST 🎤

In a special double episode of Stop the World, Dr Andrew Charlton joins David Wroe to discuss AI and the future of the Australian economy, while Maxwell Scott explains how AI could complement, enhance or replace certain human tasks.

🎧 Listen: bit.ly/4azaxNf

24.02.2026 23:01 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 1
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Four years of folly: mired in Ukraine, Putin won’t back down | The Strategist President Vladimir Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine has failed to achieve any of the strategic objectives he laid out when he began this disastrous folly. Yet he is compelled to persist in his va...

'It seems a dim prospect now, but we must trust that the day will come when Russians can hold an honestly elected government to account and exercise genuine choice about their future,' writes Peter Tesch.

24.02.2026 04:36 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 1
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Australia can reap the benefits of critical-minerals rivalry | The Strategist Accelerating geo‑economic competition to control supply chains for critical minerals is disrupting global markets and threatening security.  Resource-rich Australia is delicately positioned between ri...

'Australian companies aren’t just domestic producers; they’re global investors, operators and technology leaders. Demand for their products is only rising as the energy transition, digitisation, automation and defence modernisation accelerate,' writes Ian Satchwell.

23.02.2026 22:52 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0