Jim Sannes

Ohhhhh now we are talking

Leaving for vacation tomorrow

Vegas --> Zion National Park --> Grand Canyon --> back to Vegas

If you have any restaurant/trail recs, shoot 'em my way!

Geno Smith chucking bombs to Garrett Wilson and AD Mitchell is at least fun.

More bad teams should try to be fun!

I am in Boston for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, so if you see a portly bald man checking NASCAR/F1 practice times, come say hi!

I humbly accept the role of becoming your therapist for the low price of your sanity.

You might need a new therapist if me yelling at/antagonizing Brandon for an hour counts as therapy.

(But I assure you I feel the same way)

And just like that, the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine has come and gone. But those results? They're forever etched into the spreadsheets for all eternity. This year, we saw some record-breaking performances, and we saw plenty of calculated opt-ins and opt-outs. What does it all mean? Off the heels of last week's deep dive into which NFL Combine measurables really matter, let's take a look at some of the biggest takeaways from the weekend while keeping in mind that NFL Combine data is only one piece of the puzzle for incoming NFL prospects.

Very cool to see my boy @gdula.bsky.social writing for the football newsletter run by my other boy @lateroundqb.bsky.social.

So many boys. So much good #content.

mailchi.mp/lateround/co...

2025 Texans offseason: Trade the entire OL. Can't get any worse!

2026 Texans offseason: Trade the entire OL. Can't get any worse!

Connor Zilisch is running as fast as the leaders while in heavy traffic. He can still be a factor for the win.

I appreciate it! Always happy to answer questions around it if you have any.

Starting to watch new Scrubs, and seeing these actors in high-def is jarring.

No full article for this year. I'm in a new role at the company now, so no writing/podcasting on my end anymore. Will be sharing all insights here instead.

Happy anniversary!! Hope the two of you have a great day.

Daytona 500 --> Industry --> A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms is an S-tier TV day

I know people get annoyed about the fuel saving, but:

That race banged.

Cars were hard to handle. Tons of action. Tons of contenders at the front. I loved it.

If the leaders are going to run half throttle, and I am in the back of the pack I am:

- Getting a group of five drivers
- Pitting now
- Packing it full of fuel
- Going 100% throttle to put pressure on them

We've reached the "my heart rate is higher than the drivers'" stage of the Daytona 500.

Both Carson Beck (66th percentile) and Taylen Green (61st) have the experience level to justify their older ages. And efficiency numbers for them certainly weren't bad. Just not a whole lot to get excited about in this class as a whole, imo.

The other issue with the model this year is that the two players it likes most outside of Mendoza are pretty scary.

Diego Pavia is very experienced and had high-level efficiency but is older (24.2) and uhhhh yeah.

Cole Payton had great efficiency but is older and inexperienced.

Personally, I'd rather gamble on that profile -- young, experienced, inefficient -- than the old, mid bucket when we're talking about non-elite draft capital.

Drew Allar and Cade Klubnik are the two guys in the class (outside of Mendoza) who have the blend of age and experience the model likes.

They still wind up in the 57th and 41st percentiles, respectively, due to inconsistent play.

Bo Nix and Tyler Shough have had solid flashes, but the better *statistical* comp for Nussmeier is Aidan O'Connell.

Nix blended elite experience with high-end efficiency, and Nussmeier didn't have that either last year or this year.

Garrett Nussmeier is more experienced than Simpson (32 games to 16), but he's also a full year older.

The only QBs 24 or older taken in the first 100 picks since 2010 are Bo Nix, Brandon Weeden, Tyler Shough, Hendon Hooker, Dillon Gabriel, and Will Grier.

5 of the 15 combine QBs (Diego Pavia, Joe Fagnano, Haynes King, Behren Morton, Garrett Nussmeier) are older than Cam Ward is now, and Ward was older than average for a first-rounder last year.

In general, it’s just a very old class.

Only 3 of 15 QBs invited to the combine (Fernando Mendoza, Drew Allar, and Cade Klubnik) are younger than Jaxson Dart is *now*. None are younger than he was entering last year.

Each of the 8 successful non-1st-round QBs since 2010 had at least 36 games of experience coming out.

Garrett Nussmeier (32), Sawyer Robertson (28), Ty Simpson (16), and Cole Payton (13) all fall short of that, and they’ll all be at least 23.2 years old when the draft starts.

Since 2010, 23 QBs have been invited to the combine at age 22.5 or older with 20 or fewer games of experience.

Only Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, and Davis Mills went within the first 120 picks.

Ty Simpson and Cole Payton are both in that bucket.

If Simpson were to go in the 1st round, he’d rank 48th in the model out of 53 1st-round QBs since 2010 (counting Mendoza).

Successes down there are Josh Allen and Jordan Love, but both were younger (21.9 and 21.4) and more experienced (25 games and 35) than Simpson coming out.

We'll start with Ty Simpson.

Simpson is in just the 29th percentile of my pre-draft quarterback prospect model. This is almost entirely due to his age (23.3) and experience (16 games with 10-plus pass attempts).

His QBR is in the 59th percentile.

Going to run through some non-Fernando Mendoza QBs in this class now, but if you want info on Mendoza and how my quarterback prospect model works ⬇️