Miscalculation on several fronts:
- Response inside Iran
- IRGC crossing red lines, hitting all GCC
- Gulf not joining
- Economic toll heavy
Doesn’t mean regime is not weakened but expectations of this war have diminished from Graham’s “Make Iran Great Again” to how do we end it
NEW: Israel has concluded in #Iran war
• Regime change not an option
• Protests didn’t mobilize
• Kurdish option is no more
Result: Escalation of strikes as Trump looks for “elegant exit” and wait for next round www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
If US and Israel launched war in hopes of Iran producing a Delcy Rodriguez, they re getting instead a Hugo Chavez: more militant, more radical considering it’s Iran.
Buckle up
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
• More hardline than father
• He’s the IRGC candidate
• Relatively young: 56
• Avoids public
• Trusted by father, clerics
• Was in military during Iraq-Iran war
• His wife, Zahra, killed in Israeli airstrike w his father
China, meanwhile not losing much sleep over Khamenei killing, is cutting its own side deals to make sure ships not targeted, LNG/oil flow continues. Beijing also happy to see US distracted in another Middle East war. #Iran www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/2...
Unconfirmed reports on missile intercepted as it was targeting Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia.
As it moves to elect Mojtaba Khamenei, IRGC telling everyone, including Trump, who is the real boss in Iran.
Since Iran President apologized to neighboring countries this morning, IRGC has fired drones/missiles at:
- UAE
- Qatar
- Bahrain
- Azerbaijan foiled a plot
Araghchi, Ghalibaf issued more threats as US, Israel bombardment continues across Iran. Week 2.
📻 Great to be on NPR’s 1A this morning with @nickschifrin & @joshuakeating to discuss the war in #Iran, why the IRGC disarming is a mirage, and how Russia is taking advantage of the situation as China deconflicts. the1a.org/segments/the...
Thank you. I couldn’t find it here
Post by @joycekaram.bsky.social: "Video of a shepherd in #Lebanon evacuating with his herd from Naqoura on Israel’s border to western Beqaa. They’ve already been walking for 2 days and expect 3 more to go. War doesn’t spare anyone…"
#China is not losing sleep over Khamenei, sees opening on Taiwan, but:
• Iran war complicating oil flow
• Threatening Gulf allies
• Forcing deconfliction deals
• Looking at Russia. This week's newsletter www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/2...
NEW: UAE billionaire Habtoor openly lambasts Trump over Iran war
The Emirati businessman condemned the US president, a former business partner, for his “dangerous” attack on Iran and asked whether he had stopped to consider the collateral damage. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
This is increasingly looking like phase 2 of the plan in the Iran war. Big gamble for the Kurds who have been let down numerous times in the past.
SCOOP: Iranian Kurds, in contact with CIA now in Iraq, are poised to cross to #Iran in next few days. Masoud Barzani no longer opposed. @amberinzaman.bsky.social reporting:
www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
The French have a base in UAE and many shared interests with Gulf, US in region. They could also be planning evacuations
It's as if Iran is daring Gulf states to join the war. The open +blatant nature of the attacks targeting Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain could prompt decision to join the war. Gulf has not been that vulnerable since Saddam invasion of Kuwait in 1990
UPDATE: Day 4 Iran war
• Drone hits US consulate in Dubai
• US closes Lebanon, Kuwait, Saudi embassies
• Pakistan warns Iran over targeting Saudi
• France sending carrier
• Israel gives Iran figures in LB 24 hrs to leave
• > 787 killed in Iran www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/su...
The Venezuela analogy simply doesn’t apply to Iran. There is no ‘Venezuela scenario’ in Iran or Middle East. This is 47‑yr‑old entrenched security ideological regime with web of proxies across the region. To compare it to any Latin American case is not just misguided, it’s naive.
where we are:
- IRGC flexing muscles regionally despite losses in command & infrastructure
- Lebanon dragged in last night but more stable now
- US (Trump + Hegseth) preparing for possibility of ground troops & longer war
- Race between interceptors (Gulf) vs missiles (Iran)
UPDATE: Day 3, Iran war
• IRGC says Hormuz CLOSED
• Tanker set of fire
• Qatar downs 2 Iran ✈️
• US emb. in Jordan evacuates
• Total 6 US forces killed
• > 550 dead in Iran
• F-15s down in Kuwait www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/qa...
EXCLUSIVE: Sources tell @AlMonitor Israel sees anti-regime protests as imminent in #Iran, is unlikely to invade #Lebanon before Iranian situation clears out. Details www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
- still very risky given bloody history in country, Iran’s role, and Hezbollah’s own retribution
- Implementation will not be easy given challenges Lebanon army faces
Context
- would not have happened without emerging public consensus on issue. Lebanese are fatigued by decades of fighting their own & outside wars
- follows US pressure on gov
🚨 BIG: #Lebanon BANS Hezbollah’s military activities after rockets fired at Israel.
Major decision by Beirut try avert both getting dragged into Iran war & civil war. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
This is already the largest war in scope regionally perhaps since Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990. Gulf, Israel, US, Jordan, Lebanon, even Cyprus looped in
UPDATE: Hezbollah enters #Iran war, reportedly firing missiles at Israel from South Lebanon. Israel now retaliating across Lebanon including in Dahiye (S. Beirut).
The 2024 ceasefire was already shaky but this is what many in Lebanon hoped to avoid. Latest: www.al-monitor.com/live-blog/tr...
Less than 48 hrs into war, Trump says ready to talk to regime in #Iran. “They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them”, he tells Atlantic.
Comes as 3 US troops killed, IRGC hit UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi, Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Israel. Hormuz crippled.
JUST IN: Three US troops killed in war with Iran. Day 2 www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
Also, not sure why some calling this “an attack” or “an operation” and not war. It is a war, and one that is likely to drag on
Some notes
- This is a war that is drawing entire Gulf region, disrupting navigation, oil flow
- If US had in mind Venezuela scenario, it’s not materializing yet. No sign of regime cracking or backing down yet
- Lebanon is breaking rule with Hezbollah showing restraint (so far)
