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Harvir Dhillon

@harvirdhillon

Economist at β€ͺthe British Retail Consortium‬ πŸ›οΈ UK macro, retail and #costofliving πŸ“ˆπŸ‘¨πŸ½β€πŸ’»πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Opinions my own etc Formerly Experian Leicestershire, United Kingdom 🦊

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16.10.2024
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Latest posts by Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon

Yes, absolutely shattered rn - my body is very unsure what time it is. Opted to take the safer route back. Some Brits I met along the way were spending 50 hours travelling and some spent Β£3-4k on new tickets. I think it could have been a lot worse than what it was for me and my mate

11.03.2026 10:34 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Because of ME tensions, I ended up flying back to the UK through NZ (nice two day stopover!) before another flight to Houston and then finally back to Heathrow πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§

11.03.2026 08:18 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Perth dump

11.03.2026 08:17 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I’ve never wanted to be back in Blighty as bad as rn πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§

04.03.2026 02:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Gosh getting back to the UK is not going to be easy 😭

04.03.2026 02:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Sydney dump - next stop Perth πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί

01.03.2026 18:17 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I made it through Dry Jan. Time for a cold 🍺

01.02.2026 13:56 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

stirlingretail.com/2026/01/26/r...

ICYMI: Our post from yesterday (26/01). The second of a two part pair. This by @vacantshopsacademy.bsky.social on proactive and practical steps to tackle vacancy in our high streets.

27.01.2026 09:12 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Looking ahead, a cautious recovery beckons. With interest rates set to fall and the CPI expected to dip by summer, real earnings growth of 1% may restore some purchasing power. Yet, with unemployment at 5.1%, value will remain the focus for the British consumer throughout 2026.

27.01.2026 08:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

🌐 Factory gate or output inflation remains elevated at 3.4%. Global headwinds are mixed: oil prices rose 3.7% to ~$65, yet the FAO Global Food Index slipped in December, a welcome, if modest, counterbalance to the domestic factory-gate pressures currently filtering through to the shelf.

27.01.2026 08:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Interestingly, non-food has exited its long period of deflation, ticking up to 0.3%. While fashion remains a bargain-hunter’s haven, categories like health and beauty (+3.0%) and furniture (+1.1%) are beginning to show more stubborn price growth. 🏷️

27.01.2026 08:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸ›’ Grocery costs remain the primary catalyst. Food inflation rose to 3.9%, with fresh items up 4.4% year-on-year. While dairy wholesale saw some relief, the cost of meat and fish remains elevated. Ambient goods also picked up, rising 1.5% on the month as supply pressures persisted.

27.01.2026 08:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Headline inflation climbed to 1.5% in January, up from 0.7% in December. This 0.4% monthly uptick signals that any post-festive respite for consumer wallets may be limited. πŸ“Š

27.01.2026 08:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸ›οΈ Deflation’s retreat: Shop prices pick up in January

The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor suggests prices picked up at their fastest pace in almost a year.

27.01.2026 08:03 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I was thinking I should maybe do sober October next time for that reason πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§

23.01.2026 16:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Lucky guy! One more week until Dry Jan is over for me 😒

23.01.2026 14:34 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Mixed signals from the GfK survey of consumer confidence. but one positive is the improvement in the outlook for personal finances... πŸ‘‡

Hopes of lower inflation and lower interest rates may be offsetting fears of higher taxes and rising unemployment... (1/2)

nielseniq.com/global/en/ne...

23.01.2026 07:59 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Caveat however being that larger retailers performed worse than smaller retailers. In annual terms, larger retailers saw sales drop 1.6% and smaller retailers were up 6.4%.

23.01.2026 07:38 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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If we break down volumes at the detailed-level, then these are the growth rankings. Computers, phones and second-hand goods continuing to perform the best.

23.01.2026 07:26 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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It's only really non-store retailing (pure play) and other stores (computers/phones/pre-loved items) that saw much growth in the final month of 2025.

23.01.2026 07:25 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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If we break it down to the category level, then it looks like the #tobacco duty had a clear impact on sales. Independents performed better than supermarkets.

23.01.2026 07:25 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Value continues to diverge from values the most in food sales. Food sales are 6.1% below their pre-Covid levels and non-food sales 0.6% below. It's clear which has seen the strongest improvement, more recently.

23.01.2026 07:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Nonetheless, we observe an improvement in sales this most recent golden quarter, as compared to 2024, of 2.1%, which is the fastest since 2020.

23.01.2026 07:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Retail sales volumes were lower in Q4 vs Q3, but on the month we did see an increase in sales volumes of 0.4%.

23.01.2026 07:24 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Looking at other retail categories, furniture and flooring was the only major category to sit comfortably in deflation. Otherwise, clothing inflation was zero, and alcohol + tobacco prices saw a significant rise (surprising given how many deals there were):

21.01.2026 07:21 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Food prices registered a strong 0.8% increase on the month, and diving deeper, there were significant prices increases for pasta products as well as bread, pork and olive oil.

21.01.2026 07:21 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Slight increase in inflation, driven by a few factors, principally alcohol and tobacco, followed by transport (earlier collection than usual of flight ticket prices) as well as hospitality, fashion and food.

21.01.2026 07:20 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
ONS statement saying employee numbers have fallen again, with reductions concentrated in retail and hospitality

ONS statement saying employee numbers have fallen again, with reductions concentrated in retail and hospitality

πŸ“‰ In the least surprising news ever, if the government makes it more expensive for retail and hospitality businesses to employ people, then they will - SURPRISE - employ fewer people!

20.01.2026 08:48 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

For more insight into our Retail Sales Monitor, follow BRC Economist @harvirdhillon.bsky.social πŸ‘‡

13.01.2026 10:05 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ“‰ The point here is that the "slowest growth" headlines were driven by food sales. Non-food retail actually *declined* in December 2025. Ignoring Easter/Black Friday phasing effects, it was the worst decline for over a year...
How does "cozzie livs" affect retail? Now you know πŸ‘‡

13.01.2026 09:58 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0