Thiago R. Oliveira

Find someone who believes in you like researchers believe in pre-post differences as valid treatment effect estimates.

Ok, let’s do this🙄

We’ll start with an explainer covering:

🕒What is a 15-minute city
🏫What on Earth is going on with Oxford
👽Where the conspiracy theories have come from

And then we’ll look at the Telegraph article

🧵
1/25

Last term I tried an experiment: I walked into my Tech and Design Ethics class, admitted that I had *no idea* what to do about ChatGPT - so I would let them figure it out.

As in: their first project was to decide and write the ChatGPT policy for the class.

Here's what happened:

Paper out with @jpinasanchez.bsky.social & @marcelo-f-aebi.bsky.social in @socialindicators.bsky.social 🔔
How often do we compare crime recorded across countries? We show that crime counting rules vary widely across countries and this strongly affects cross-country comparisons

Working on AI trust, security, or related areas? @manchester.ac.uk has advertised three Fellowships (up to 3 years) for postdoctoral researchers who are within four years of completing their PhD www.jobs.manchester.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...

I think the general lessons are:

1. Be clear about your goal (_estimand_)

2. Be clear about your analytical method (_estimator_)

3. Be clear about the assumptions that connect method to goal (_design_)

Very cool and timely (!) JDLCC special issue

Mannheim Centre for Criminology | PhD Symposium 2026 The LSE’s Mannheim Centre for Criminology is pleased to announce the inaugural PhD Symposium taking place 18-19 May 2026

The Mannheim Centre at the LSE is holding a PhD symposium in May '26. The details are here lse.ac.uk/social-polic... and I would encourage all interested PhD students to apply. Should be a great, great event

Trust and legitimacy are a resource for police.

Out now: Episode #88 with the excellent @benbradford.bsky.social
Apple: apple.co/4opeJDD
Spotify: bit.ly/3WBBJ6f

External speaker seminar series at @criminologyuom.bsky.social 🤓

Are we winning the pumpkin carving competition? 🎃
@foxnic.bsky.social @oliveiratr.bsky.social

Hello - it's taken a while but we are finally here! The BSC is on Bluesky. We look forward to sharing all the exciting things happening at the BSC: Events, Networks, Newsletters, our 2026 conference, membership opportunities and much more. Please follow us for all things Criminology and CJ!

Really great paper, everyone enjoyed reading it! I'll send you some notes from the discussion in private.

This semester's programme is available at uom-resquant.github.io/programme/

Today we kicked off the Reading Sessions in Quantitative Criminology @criminologyuom.bsky.social discussing @dandekadt.bsky.social's excellent Good Description. Amazing session, this is such a great group! We meet fortnightly to discuss working papers and published papers on quantitative methods.

Hello! ENOC is on BlueSky now. We are a working group of the @esc-eurocrim.bsky.social dedicated to the promotion, training, application and rewarding of open research in criminology. Check out our website for more: esc-enoc.github.io

'As Time Goes By': The Effectiveness of Protection Orders in Reducing Intimate Partner Violence Recidivism - Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology This study investigates the effectiveness of protection orders in reducing intimate partner violence (IPV) recidivism. Protection orders are legal measures imposing restrictions on aggressors to prevent them from approaching or contacting their victims. These legal measures have seen rapid international expansion in recent years. However, understanding the extent to which they work remains an ongoing challenge. To contribute to this debate, we employ Cox standard proportional hazards models and Prentice–Williams–Peterson gap-time models for recurrent events using a new dataset, which includes comprehensive registry data from an entire cohort of more than 6000 aggressors sentenced for at least one IPV crime over a five-year period, followed for at least four years. Our findings unveil an initial, average adverse effect of protection orders on recidivism. This effect becomes non-significant after excluding breaches of the orders and after controlling for judges’ tendency to impose these measures on high-risk offenders. Moreover, we observe that the effects of protection orders vary over time: While there is an adverse immediate impact of holding an order, a positive temporal cumulative effect counteracts it after a few months.

🔍 New Research Alert 🔍

Do protection orders really reduce reoffending in intimate partner violence cases?

I just co-authored a new open-access study that tackles this question in the Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology.

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Our review of #homicide rates in Eng&Wales is out in the #AnnualReviewOfCriminology

We examine longterm trends of lethal violence in
#Eng&Wales. We examine the #gendered and #racialized dimensions of homicide and the increasing proportion of unsolved cases.

www.annualreviews.org/docserver/fu...

Let’s do statistics the other way around Summer in Berlin – the perfect time and place to explore the city, take a walk in the Görli, go skinny dipping in the Spree, attend an overcrowded, overheated conference symposium on cross-lagged pane...

Currently attending a conference & our field is quite a bit into fancy modeling, so it’s time to repost this blog post.

Don’t try to squeeze your research question into whatever model is fashionable right now; try to build the right model for your research question.

www.the100.ci/2024/08/27/l...

1/ So you’re thinking about applying for an academic job in the UK but don’t know how? This thread will walk you through the essentials.

Job Opportunity at University of Leeds: Research Fellow, Vulnerability & Policing Futures Research Centre Are you an ambitious, impact-focussed researcher looking for your next challenge? Do you have a research interest in policing and vulnerable groups, the interactions between them and other service pro...

🚨 Job opportunity 🚨

We're looking for an ambitious, impact-focused Research Fellow to join @vp-centre.bsky.social.

The role is full-time and fixed-term until 30 April 2027.

Salary: £41,064-£48,822
Based at: @universityofleeds.bsky.social
Deadline: 13 October 2025

jobs.leeds.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...

🚨 It's been a long time in the making, but I'm happy it's finally out!

Standing on the shoulders of giants, in this preprint we propose an avenue for theoretical development in the field of environmental (cyber)criminology with practical applications for crime analysis.

bsky.app/profile/soca...

we're hiring assistant professor in computational social science, applications close 26/10/2025

We're hiring an Assistant Professor in Computational Social Science ❗

📚 jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

Apply before 26 October and join an internationally outstanding group of social science methodologists 🌎

Photo of three babies lying on the carpet

Graphic describing some of the key features of the study: 30,000 babies will take part, it is the first new UK-wide birth cohort study in 25 years, babies will be age 9-11 months at the first survey, and 3-4 years at the second survey.

Graphic showing sample sizes in the four UK countries: 16,300 babies in England, 5,000 babies in Scotland, 4,500 babies in Wales, and 4,200 babies in Northern Ireland.

Graphic describing some of the elements of the study. This includes boosts for ethnic minority and low income families, interviews with fathers as well as mothers, consent to linkage to administrative data.

We're excited to announce CLS will lead the first new nationally representative UK-wide birth cohort study in 25 years. Generation New Era will follow the lives of more than 30,000 babies born in 2026, during their early years, and potentially beyond. Read more: bit.ly/4gfttBP

The biggest of all academic achievements: having a ten-year-old photo of yourself shared online. 😅

Alas I don't look like my pre-PhD self below, but thanks so much for the shout @lsemethodology.bsky.social!

Thank you!

Thanks Ben 😊

Aggressive policing and undermined legitimacy: assessing the impact of police stops at gunpoint on perceptions of police in São Paulo, Brazil - Journal of Experimental Criminology Objectives Test the effects of a recent police stop and a recent police stop at gunpoint on changes in attitudes towards the police among residents of Brazil’s biggest city. Methods A three-wave longi...

This is a link to the paper

doi.org/10.1007/s112...

Thanks Juanjo!

Today I learned that my initials are cool in Catalan ⚡️

Amazed to find out that I won the 2025 ESC Policing WG early career researcher prize for my JOEX paper! Thanks so much @davidbuil.bsky.social and @jacksojp.bsky.social for the nomination, and the ESC policing WG for the award 🙌