Lucian Cernat's Avatar

Lucian Cernat

@lcernat

Head of Unit for Trade in Goods, Tariff Negotiations, #TBTs, Customs, #RoOs. Maker of #tradeXpresso. #Mode5. #GVCs4LDCs. Ex DG TRADE ChiefTradeEconomist. Opinions personal.

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16.07.2023
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Latest posts by Lucian Cernat @lcernat

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#tradeXpresso: I never anticipated that this paper about Trade Policy 2.0 algorithms for rules of origin and public procurement might become relevant one day to « easify » the complexities involved in the #IAA implementation!

New title: “AI meets IAA”

cirano.qc.ca/files/public...

12.03.2026 23:07 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

In one word, you’re banking on “immunity”.

11.12.2025 19:53 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

So, what #TradePolicy3.0 scenario would you say it’s more likely, Simon?
A. Immunity
B. Sclerosis
C. Contagion

ecipe.org/publications...

11.12.2025 15:58 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: for people interested in an optimistic scenario for Trade Policy 3.0, here’s an idea for your next custom t-shirt 👕:

“Do yourself a service: make #Mode5services duty free”.

ecipe.org/publications...

10.12.2025 16:59 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: Trade Policy 3.0 - three scenarios for Tomorrowland

ecipe.org/publications...

29.11.2025 16:20 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso:  in Trade Policy 2.0 tariffs were a dull topic. Now, in Trade Policy 3.0, when it comes to tariffs, there's never a dull moment.

Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0.

From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...

26.11.2025 16:26 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland Global trade policy is at a crossroads. For decades, trade liberalisation was guided first by macroeconomic principles – Trade Policy 1.0 – and later by firm-level insights and global value chain

#tradeXpresso: after reading Martin Wolf’s latest FT article (www.ft.com/content/b515...) I am now intellectually reassured that #TradePolicy3.0 is actually a thing.

ecipe.org/publications...

Interested in your views!

26.11.2025 13:06 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Tulip 🌷 bubble: the 17th century Dutch bitcoin. One bulb was worth a house in 1636.

22.11.2025 18:01 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: chart of the week- the importance of services trade in the spotlight today in Brussels, thanks to the EU Services Forum!

A tale of five countries and five modes of supply:

ecipe.org/blog/the-big...

Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!

21.11.2025 11:08 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 1
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Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland Global trade policy is at a crossroads. For decades, trade liberalisation was guided first by macroeconomic principles – Trade Policy 1.0 – and later by firm-level insights and global value chain

#tradeXpresso: Global trade policy is at a crossroads. A new paradigm –Trade Policy 3.0– is emerging, based on resilience, economic security, geopolitical rivalries and weaponised dependencies.

New ECIPE brief🧾: How will trade policy evolve in Tomorrowland?

ecipe.org/publications...

06.11.2025 13:38 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart.

Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!

ecipe.org/publications...

29.10.2025 22:32 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart.

Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!

ecipe.org/publications...

29.10.2025 22:32 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Chart of the week: the pin art 🖼️ of the trade deal revealed! ecipe.org/publications...

I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!

28.09.2025 15:36 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: tariffs are simple till they aren’t. Have a look at the U.S. tariff landscape:
ecipe.org/publications...

18.09.2025 08:57 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

Interesting observation but there is one important difference though: it’s usually much more difficult to prevent transshipment of exports than imports.

19.08.2025 14:10 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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I am truly impressed by how much people read during holidays.

Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!

18.08.2025 14:39 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: perfect timing for a new “mini-deal” that will facilitate trade between the European 🇪🇺 Union and Canada 🇨🇦.

lnkd.in/eCUty6VB

Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...

08.08.2025 12:45 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: I guess establishing the new US tariff rate applicable to some products (and their origin) might drive a few people 🛃 nuts 🌰 🥜 !

03.08.2025 12:04 👍 5 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

Well, I am in charge of the trade in goods 📦. So, yeah, I guess I am in charge of #Mode5Services as well! kluwerlawonline.com/journalartic...

18.07.2025 09:05 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

5. The launch of the #Procurement4Buyers in 2025, a tool facilitating the implementation of all our international procurement rules: webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurementb...

Special thanks to Jakob Cornides for his lead on this important file!

17.07.2025 20:46 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Procurement

4. The launch of the new #Access2Procurement tool in 2021, used by tens of thousands of EU companies interested in winning public contracts abroad: webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...

17.07.2025 20:46 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

3. The conclusion of several #FTAs with ambitious procurement chapters. Best outcome probably with New Zealand, kudos to @vangelisv.bsky.social for his commitment to a great FTA!

17.07.2025 20:46 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Implementing regulation - EU - 2025/1197 - EN - EUR-Lex

2. The imposition of the first #IPIMeasure in the MedTech sector: eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg_impl...

With special thanks to Lilia Petrova, the lead IPI investigator!

17.07.2025 20:46 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Regulation - 2022/1031 - EN - EUR-Lex

1. The adoption of the International Procurement Instrument #IPI in 2022, against all odds, after a decade of inter-institutional negotiations: eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022...

17.07.2025 20:46 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

#tradeXpresso: It's time for a new role at DG Trade. Starting a new position as Head of Trade in Goods, Tariff Negotiations, #TBT, Customs and #RoOs!

Wishing the best to my former #PublicProcurement dream team, with whom I shared a number of successes over the years: (1/x)

17.07.2025 20:46 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: big crowd at the Global Digital Collaboration #GDC25 event in Geneva!

Key trade topics today:
🔹cross-border interoperability
🔹traceability across global supply chains

It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...

01.07.2025 10:55 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: EU experts are working hard with WTO partners to remove key #TBT barriers that significantly affect over € 40bn of EU exports. As in the past, successful multilateral cooperation continues behind the trade war headlines!

www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...

26.06.2025 13:23 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 1
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Commission restricts Chinese participation in medical devices procurement The European Commission decided to exclude Chinese companies from EU government purchases of medical devices exceeding €5 million. This measure follows the conclusions of the first investigation under...

#tradeXpresso: the European Commission adopted the first measures under the International Procurement Instrument #IPI.

The measures will be legally applicable in 10 days from the date of publication.

ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

20.06.2025 07:21 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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#tradeXpresso: three insights from a “trade and jobs” chart.
♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system.
♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade.
♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts!

ecipe.org/wp-content/u...

13.06.2025 14:31 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Great work by @lcernat.bsky.social showing how Trump's tariffs would be affected by the US Trade Court decision

29.05.2025 10:54 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0